$2 NLHE 6-max: Bet size for max value vs suspected overpair

partypoker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 229.5 BB
BTN: 132 BB (VPIP: 26.40, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, hands: 258)
SB: 129 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 19.81, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 3,723)
BB: 106 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 156.5 BB (VPIP: 29.15, PFR: 17.84, 3Bet Preflop: 4.14, Hands: 410)
MP: 167 BB (VPIP: 20.09, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.96, Hands: 1,080)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:heart: J:heart:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: J:diamond: 3:diamond:
UTG bets 5.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Turn: (18.5 BB, 2 players) J:club:
UTG checks, Hero checks

His turn check made me feel like he was afraid I had caught something on the flop and had now boated up. I had a feeling that I wasn't going to get a lot of calls if I bet, so I decided to slowplay.
I figured that if I check through, he's betting his entire range on the river, and probably bigger than he's calling now.


River: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
UTG bets 18 BB, Hero raises to ???

His pot-sized bet threw me off. It made me think he was definitely beating the board and likely had an overpair. He only opens 8% UTG preflop, so the only hand that beats me is Ac3c which I don't think is in his range.
I'm thinking I'm up against an overpair that likely won't fold to a raise, or I'm chopping.


How's my reasoning, and what should my raise size be to extract max value?

I'd just bet the turn small... price him in. Guys at this level can't fold over pairs often enough if you bet like 7-8 on the turn.

River, just call. He's either playing the board trying to push you off a split, bluffing or he has QQ+. Either way getting 2:1 it's a profitable call. No raises should be in there though w/o better info.

John A said:

I'd just bet the turn small... price him in. Guys at this level can't fold over pairs often enough if you bet like 7-8 on the turn.

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Need to add that to the arsenal. Thanks!

John A said:

River, just call. He's either playing the board trying to push you off a split, bluffing or he has QQ+. Either way getting 2:1 it's a profitable call. No raises should be in there though w/o better info.

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We beat QQ+ and I don't think he folds them. I figured that at worst we're chopping here, so why shouldn't we raise?

Zeebo theorem bro. Put all dee moneeee in deee pot on dee reeeiver.

And I like this as played, we could also bet the turn too. I'm not sure I have a huge preference between checking back & inducing a value bet on the river, and betting the turn to setup a river jam. Bet/bet is probably more consistent for getting the money in, but checking probably more +EV since it induces from more hands? Idk.

c9h13no3 said:

I'm not sure I have a huge preference between checking back & inducing a value bet on the river, and betting the turn to setup a river jam.

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Who was it that said "the decisions that bother us the most matter the least"?

I agree though, just put your whole stack in and take his whole stack out and you do the hokey pokey and you turn yourself about.


Honestly I think he call any raise with any hand here. Even if his best hand is 3s full of jacks (the board) he might call in hopes that you're bluffing and gets a split.

TimovieMan said:

Need to add that to the arsenal. Thanks!

We beat QQ+ and I don't think he folds them. I figured that at worst we're chopping here, so why shouldn't we raise?

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Ya, sorry... brain farted when I first read it. This deep you can't really jam. ~100bbs total or so pre, then we're jamming. But I don't think on average you can get more than 70 bbs as a raise on river. We'd have to create a bell curve for how often each size gets called with various hands and where those %'s peek for highest EV. Not sure we're going to do that....

I went for my "standard" x3 raise, 54bb, since that's what I do most of the time anyway. I just wasn't sure that's the "optimal" thing to do.

And yeah, I know this isn't going to matter much in the long run, so no bell curves necessary.