$2 NLHE 6-max: AQo OOP played weakly - making the hero call?

TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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It's a ZOOM hand, so the table changes every time. No reads whatsoever.


Pokerstars - NL2 Zoom (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

UTG: 142.36 BB
Hero (MP): 95.64 BB
CO: 146.46 BB
BTN: 342.26 BB
SB: 52.76 BB
BB: 303.72 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

1 fold, Hero raises 4 BB, 1 fold, BTN calls 4 BB, 2 folds

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 2 3 5
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, SB checks

River: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, SB raises 9 BB, Hero calls



Should I have bet the flop? If so, how much? And what's my line if he raises?

As played, I'm almost certain he's bluffing on the river, trying to make me fold an ace. Is the river call justified for a near-pot bet???
 
IPlay

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I'm confused about how the BTN called but you are playing the hand against SB?

You are also acting first so you must have changed stuff in the history?
 
TimovieMan

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Darn. The hand is against the button, not the SB. Hand history SNAFU (and I can't edit the OP).
 
Aces2w1n

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Rivers a fold

Bet flop if villl folds a lot to cbets otherwise giveup
 
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MinhANguyen

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Check-calling flop and betting turn if he checks behind. Double barreling is okay too, but I don't like doing that readless with a hand like AQo. People are going to float here a lot, so a one and done is pretty bad.

River's a fold. I think if he wanted to bluff, he would have bluffed the turn with his draws/hands that have no SDV.
 
PokerNinja91

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I think betting flop as a semi bluff around half to 2/3 pot is optimal as we have a gutshot, backdoor nut flush draw and 2 overs and then firing turn to fold out his over cards which he might float with, it could also be for value against his weaker ax hands. But as played, when he checks flop we have to take a stab on the turn as we don't really have any showdown value. River is a fold, you have to be correct here around 50% of the time here to be break even and that's never going to be the case.
 
c9h13no3

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Pretty obvious spot to semi bluff on the flop.
 
TimovieMan

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If we bet this flop, do we fold to a raise?

And if so, won't we be exploitable if we always bet/fold our whiffed overcards on flops like this?



Anyway, villain had KQ and I won the hand. The only thing I was thinking though, was "boy, I mangled that one". :p
 
PokerNinja91

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If we bet flop then I might call a raise once depending on the size as we can hit many favourable cards on he turn such as a 4, a diamond or a Q. Unless we know villain is only doing this with 2pair plus. Also, this is 2NL, players are not going to exploit you post flop, it is the other way around. These players don't generally have good reasons for the plays they make. If we don't bet our over cards ever, then we presumably lose almost every time we miss the flop - which is a lot. also- folding out KQ on the flop or turn is a good thing. He still has some equity, albeit not a lot but we're winning the hand without giving him a chance to hit that equity. He could easily have 9-10s here which we would have lost to because we gave him a free card. I'm not saying we should bet everything here but with this hand - we have a gutter plus backdoor flush draw to go wth our overs which means there are a tonne of good cards for us to barrel on the turn either for value or as a semi bluff.
 
IPlay

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I agree with Pokerninja.

Your logic is somewhat flawed Tim because you can say that every time you cbet as a bluff. "Well if I cbet and get raised and fold, isn't that exploitable?"

This is just a prime spot to CBet and you can actually call a small raise because you like a lot of potential turns.
 
TimovieMan

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Your logic is somewhat flawed Tim because you can say that every time you cbet as a bluff. "Well if I cbet and get raised and fold, isn't that exploitable?"
But most of my cbets ARE bluffs - you don't hit the board that often.

I just don't like cbetting OOP unless it's for value. Getting check-raised in position is a bigger sign of strength, makes it easier to fold. And in position we at least have a good chance to see a free river if a flop cbet gets called. OOP you don't have that advantage...


But then, I lack the NL experience and confidence in these spots. I'm a former FL player, folding isn't my biggest strength, and I (wrongly?) assume my opponents at these stakes don't fold either...
 
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IPlay

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This hand should be near the top of your bluffing range in this spot and you shouldn't CBet OOP a ton but you shouldn't just not CBet OOP all together. Especially on a site like pokerstars if you want to move up through the stakes.

If you have KQo with no diamonds then sure, x/fold is fine. But this hand has a lot going for us for many reasons. A high could be the best hand, we have a gut shot, 2 overs and we block flush draws that may try to bluff us and we also like a lot of turns because we hold the Ad. The only better bluff to have here is AdKd and this hand isn't too far off.
 
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DunningKruger

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Definitely bet this flop. As played I can understand wanting to call the river and you're good there sometimes but against an unknown playing Zoom folding would be a better play. Calling would be more because it's literally 18 cents and you found a quarter on the sidewalk today walking home from the bus stop so hey let's find out what he took his goofy line with, and not because we're making +EV decisions playing solid poker with sound fundamentals. The zoom format not only makes it less likely to begin with that he's making a move on you but ****s on most of the meta reasons you might have to look him up. Muck and move on imo.

River is a fold, you have to be correct here around 50% of the time here to be break even and that's never going to be the case.

You have to be good a little over 32% of the time here to break even. You will never have to be good as high as 50% of the time to break even on a call, although if there's 50 cents in the pot and your opponent bets $100,000 (and you cover the bet) then yeah you get pretty close to it.

And if so, won't we be exploitable if we always bet/fold our whiffed overcards on flops like this?

I mean maybe eventually depending on your opening range from MP and how accurately your unknown 2NL opponent can pinpoint it, but your preflop game would need adjusting. You'll have a ton of overpairs here, you have all sets, combo draws, etc. You may or may not have the wheel but you should. Dial back on the cbetting once your opponent starts raising like it's going out of style, not in case he starts to do it. Moreover, if you do scale back then AdQx likely still makes it into our default cbetting range regardless - in fact I'd guess you're continuing less than half the time on this board if it doesn't.

If you start thinking in terms of range versus range, decisions to bet or give up for the most part become a lot clearer.
 
c9h13no3

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But most of my cbets ARE bluffs - you don't hit the board that often.

I just don't like cbetting OOP unless it's for value. Getting check-raised in position is a bigger sign of strength, makes it easier to fold. And in position we at least have a good chance to see a free river if a flop cbet gets called. OOP you don't have that advantage...


But then, I lack the NL experience and confidence in these spots. I'm a former FL player, folding isn't my biggest strength, and I (wrongly?) assume my opponents at these stakes don't fold either...
All of what you're saying is true, but you're not considering the alternative to c-betting, which is trying to make it to showdown with essentially ace high. So the choice is c-bet, make your life easy, or check and essentially hand your opponent the pot. When you check 2 times out of position, most opponents will realize you have nothing and act accordingly.

Against a really bad player, this line might be okay (and it seems you lucked into one of those players). But most villains will bet at least the turn when checked to twice. Course, this is 2NL, so maybe not that uncommon...

I'd rather do this in position, where we can check back the flop and be 2 betting rounds from showdown, rather than 3.
 
PokerNinja91

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Do you think players at 2NL realise that it is a board you're unlikely to have hit? Do you think that players are even thinking about your perceived range? They look at their 2 cards, look at the board and if they haven't hit anything then they fold and move on, ESPECIALLY in Zoom. Firing Cbets on most flops is profitable at these limits in zoom because most players play an easy to exploit fit/fold strategy. So by firing a cbet, you are exploiting them - not the other way around. If he does raise then it's very likely he has a hand which he wants to go with, he's not bluffing here anywhere near often enough to warrant a check. Unless of course you have stats on him.
 
TimovieMan

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They look at their 2 cards, look at the board and if they haven't hit anything then they fold and move on, ESPECIALLY in Zoom. Firing Cbets on most flops is profitable at these limits in zoom because most players play an easy to exploit fit/fold strategy. So by firing a cbet, you are exploiting them - not the other way around.
Makes perfect sense, thanks.


Thanks for the replies, all! :top:
 
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