Definitely bet this flop. As played I can understand wanting to call the river and you're good there sometimes but against an unknown playing Zoom folding would be a better play. Calling would be more because it's literally 18 cents and you found a quarter on the sidewalk today walking home from the bus stop so hey let's find out what he took his goofy line with, and not because we're making +EV decisions playing solid poker with sound fundamentals. The zoom format not only makes it less likely to begin with that he's making a move on you but ****s on most of the meta reasons you might have to look him up. Muck and move on imo.
Originally Posted by PokerNinja91
River is a fold, you have to be correct here around 50% of the time here to be break even and that's never going to be the case.
You have to be good a little over 32% of the time here to break even. You will never have to be good as high as 50% of the time to break even on a call, although if there's 50 cents in the pot and your opponent bets $100,000 (and you cover the bet) then yeah you get pretty close to it.
Originally Posted by TimovieMan
And if so, won't we be exploitable if we always bet/fold our whiffed overcards on flops like this?
I mean maybe eventually depending on your opening range from MP and how accurately your unknown 2NL opponent can pinpoint it, but your preflop game would need adjusting. You'll have a ton of overpairs here, you have all sets, combo draws, etc. You may or may not have the wheel but you should. Dial back on the cbetting once your opponent starts raising like it's going out of style, not in case he starts to do it. Moreover, if you do scale back then AdQx likely still makes it into our default cbetting range regardless - in fact I'd guess you're continuing less than half the time on this board if it doesn't.
If you start thinking in terms of range versus range, decisions to bet or give up for the most part become a lot clearer.