$2 NLHE 6-max: Another tough (?) river decision

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 93 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BTN: 147 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
SB: 164 BB (VPIP: 58.82, PFR: 44.12, 3Bet Preflop: 30.77, Hands: 34)
BB: 183 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 25)
Hero (UTG): 216 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♥ A♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 8♠ T♣ K♠
SB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) 9♥
SB bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

River: (30 BB, 2 players) 6♥
SB bets 19.5 BB, Hero ???

What do you guys think I should do here?

I click the pop-up window on PT4 to tell me how often the villain bets the turn and flop, and use that information as part of my decision-making.

Villain is a maniac. Some manics play quite straightforwardly after the flop. Others bet every street no matter what they have, hoping you will fold.

Let's assume that since villain does not play every hand pre-flop, he or she does not bet or call every hand postflop, but does bet or call more than 50% of their hands. Since their wide opening range means they will often miss the board, or hit the board weakly, this would mean that they bet or call any time they hit the board in any way.

There are 49.5 BB in the pot, and you are asked to call 19.5 BB to close the action, so you are getting 2.5:1 to call.

Hands that beat you include any 7 or K, or sets. With a 44% PFR and a 30% 3-bet stat we will guess that they do not have a high pocket pair, or they would have 3-Bet pre-flop. Although some maniacs get a thrill from calling with their best hands instead of re-raising.

Hands that you beat include any pair other than K, and busted draws.

There are many more hands that you beat than hands that beat you, and you are getting a good price. I don't see any good reason to raise, but I call.

You could argue to fold every street. ATo is loose for UTG, and the 9 on the turn is a bad card for our hand.

As played, I think you need to call the river since nothing changed. But I certainly fold far earlier in the hand.

Two reasons to be a little loose:
- five -handed
- two players have VPIPs over 50%, and one of them is in the blinds. We don't want to play junk against these players, but ATo is far ahead of their ranges.

I should probably work on my UTG open range, but I do feel like ATo at a table with 5 ppl, and 2 really really loose people can be profitable. Is that wrong?


Anyway guys, thanks for your input!

I figured i'd call because the chance of having a K, 7 or set was pretty small. If he had a K, would he ever check flop to start betting on turn and river? If he had a 7, would he call the flop? It was kind of a rash decision on the spot. not very well thought through because I think i simply need more experience before I can make the analysis Alex made in 15 seconds.

He had 22 and I won the pot.

Often even a maniac will not "donk bet" the flop with top pair.
The standard play is to wait for the pre-flop raiser to act, since they will often c-bet.
Since this villain is very aggressive, maybe a better point is that they might have check-raised the flop with a K.

This is an excellent point.

It is always so much easier after the hand! Often I click a button first and think later, it is a hard habit for me to break. I am glad it worked out well for you.

As is a pretty terrible card to bluff catch with and I think villain can easily have K7, T7, 87, 97, 7sXs. This villain might also bet two pair vs your line

Hero has 2nd pair. How is As a bluff catcher here?

This is true, thank you for the correction. Having a 7 would not cause the villain to call the flop, but that doesn't mean villain doesn't have 7.

And you are correct that I should have mentioned two pair as a possible hand that beats Hero, in addition to sets, straights, and Kx.

Should Hero make the call? Let's quantify it.

We give the villain a range on the river of [K***, 6***, 8***,T***, 9***,22-55, *h*h], i.e. any one or two pair hand, any pocket pair less than QQ (since we assume QQ or higher 3-Bets pre-flop), and any 2 hearts.

This includes all of the hands with 7 in them that you mention above.

We are assuming that Villain is enough of a maniac to make this river bet with any pair or better, and any busted flush draw.

Hero's equity is 57% against this range, and it's 2.5:1 to make the call. Hero should be very happy to make this call if our range assumptions are accurate.

How do you calculate equity?

What if he doesnt bet bottom pair? HOw much equity would I have?

You gave him far too wide a range and I didn't mean we are calling with A high but we are calling the As in our hand which blocks.villains bluffs

Is the range too wide when he has 60 vpip? What hands would you exclude from the range.
The As blocking bluffs is a good point. Hadnt thought of it that way yet

I use PT4's Equity Calculator tool. There are other software tools that do the same thing.

As noted in earlier posts, it would be good to know something statistically about his post-flop play. The range I assign to him could definitely be wrong for this player. But we are forced to estimate, and I still think that's a reasonable estimate for our micros maniac.

Getting 2.5:1 pot odds, hero only needs 40% equity to call.

For argument's sake, let's say villain doesn't bet busted flushes or bottom pair. We'll continue to assume he doesn't bet all streets with air, although many maniacs will, especially with no Ace on the board.

Villain's range is [K***, 67, 8***,T***, 9***,22-55, 7hh*], Hero's equity is 50%.

Let's go tighter and eliminate under-pairs, including the hand the villain actually bet. Villain's range is [K***, 67, 8***,T***, 9***,7hh*], Hero's equity is 48%.

To bring the hero's equity under 40% we need to eliminate 8x, except 87, from the villain's range.


I don't understand. Do you mean that we don't need to worry if villain bets with a T (other than T7), since we have a T with the best kicker?

I never noticed those tools. Maybe I should look up what you can do with PT4. For now I just look at hands and use it for the Hud.

That may be his range pre but his range should get more narrow the further you go, even maniacs.

A 58% VPIP looks like this: [22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T6s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2 o+,J6o+,T8o+,98o]

Villain's range pre in this hand may be narrower, since he is calling a raise.

It may also actually be wider than 58%.
He's the SB, so he only needs 2.5BB to call. Fish will call many hands from the SB that they wouldn't limp or raise with. And the button, SB, and BB are the only players who still have cards.
His range pre is a mile wide.

A 44% PFR makes him hyper-aggressive pre. There's no guarantee that he's hyper-aggressive post, but usually one goes with the other, especially in the micros.

I'm contending that betting with any pair or better, with no pure bluffs, is his narrowed river range!

But I do think it's reasonable to argue he's tighter than that. There's no clear way that I can think of to settle that debate.

Can I possibly track more of his stats on my PT4 if I look him up?

Yes.

View Stats button > My Reports button > Player dropdown, Choose New Player.
After the player is found, New Report Button > Player Report > Finish.
Then (you may need to scroll down in box on left), Available Stats > Bets. Double click Bets Turn and Bets River.

The results will tell us something about this player, although it won't tell us what kind of estimates of post-flop aggressiveness we should generally make if only given VPIP and PFR.

Sample size is way too small for that Alex. Typically AFq would be ok here to tell us something about post flop but sample is still kind of small.

Also these stats could be a 25/21 player that happened to go on a 34 hand heater when you first played against him. I've had 50 hand samples where I played 3/3 and 50 hand samples I've played 50/35 but overall I'm more like 26/20

Yes, AFq is the better stat.

I always wonder if I am taking stats with a small sample size too seriously.

I mostly play on Ignition. I use PT4 and the Ignition Hand Catcher. Because of the anonymous tables, the only stats I have on opponents are from that session, so sample sizes are always small.

The same applies when I play live, since many fewer hands are dealt in a session. You get to know a few regs, but most of the time sample sizes are very small.

I find that most of the time some information is better than none, especially for stats that are outliers.

In a five hand sample size, for example, there is no real difference between a PFR of 20 and one of 40. But a player with a PFR of 60 in a five hand sample is rarely a nit. Yes, there is always a chance they had three premium hands in five orbits . . .

If villain here bets turns and rivers 4 hands out of 5, that's a very small sample, but I would still factor it into my decision-making.

Easy fold. On the turn. He probably had QJ or caught trips.

What makes you think a straight or a set is more likely here than a K?

I would fold ATo from UTG pre, but if I didn't - contbet on the flop and fold on the turn here.

His raises after flop. Will you play so just with K??

Read the whole post mate. he has 60 vpip.

Yes, I would bet this turn with top pair. All that's happened so far is that the hero has c-bet, which the hero might do with any hand.

But why would what I would do make any difference to this hand?

key is the turn. He didn't wait what Supmargy will do on the turn but betted much himself. What if Supmargy raises him?? Players don't care when they have something good.

After playing many many hands I started to see how happenings can develop.