$2 NLHE 6-max: 2NL Rivered Flush. Nitty Fold?

partypoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Player1 (UTG): $2.00 (100 bb)
Player2 (CO): $2.63 (132 bb)
Player3 (BU): $4.68 (234 bb)
Player4 (SB): $3.22 (161 bb)
Hazzer97 (BB): $2.03 (102 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero (Hazzer97) is BB with J♠ K♠
Player1 (UTG) raises to $0.06, 3 players fold, Hazzer97 (BB) calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 5♠ 9♠ 2♦ (2 players)
Hazzer97 (BB) checks, Player1 (UTG) bets $0.10, Hazzer97 (BB) calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.33) 2♣ (2 players)
Hazzer97 (BB) checks, Player1 (UTG) bets $0.24, Hazzer97 (BB) calls $0.24

River: ($0.81) 2♠ (2 players)
Hazzer97 (BB) checks, Player1 (UTG) bets $0.57, Hazzer97 (BB) calls $0.57


Total pot: $1.95 (Rake: $0.09)


So i think i played this fairly standard until the river. I need to win the hand 30% of the time to call, but looking back i'm not sure if I beat even that much of his river betting range.

He can have pretty much every pair to make a full house, a few suited aces which either make better flushes or A5s/A9s/A2s which also beat me. A few suited connectors he can have that would make worse flushes also end up making the full house e.g. 9Ts, 89s, 56s, 45s, maybe 23s bets the flop too. He also can have a few random pairs from non-spade connectors with a 5 or 9.


All I can think that he could have that I beat is QTs, 78, 67s and 34s, and maybe complete air, but it doesn't make sense to bluff with complete air when I've called the flop and turn as I'm not calling with worse than air and not folding better. Even betting weak flushes seems thin on that river. I'm assuming villain would also not be betting the rare missed straight draw with 34.

So i'm inclined to think that I really should have folded here given that I beat so little of his river betting range despite only needing 30%, but am I just being a nit?

So to properly analyze this hand we would need more info on UTG. VPIP, PFR, # hands, any prior hands where they played it odd, etc.

It's difficult to assign ranges like that without background information, but in the absence of this I'll offer two cents.

Preflop I'm OK with this call in general, although I feel like you need to be three-betting this hand sometimes because you're OOP. An UTG raise on a 2NL table could mean a lot so we'll save that for now.

Flop I'd prefer a check raise here. You only have a draw and two overs. By calling you don't really know if the villain hit that flop, has a pair, or was bluffing at it. Would you rather raise here, get them to fold and pick the pot up without drawing to your flush, or risk the pot getting bigger and missing the draw.

Turn - I don't think the paired 2 changes much - again I'd rather bet because I need to know if I'm good or not. They could be triple barreling with air and you simply calling gives you no insight into whether or not you're good. I'm feeling more and more like this air betting, like a naked ace for example. Could be a PP, but AK or AQ I think is more likely.

River: Your analysis I think is too deep for 2NL. I can't see them showing up with 32s on the river after raising UTG pre but again, we have no info to go on.

Could they have a boat? Yes. Could they have the nut flush? Yes. Do i think you're more likely up against AK, AQ, TT, 88, etc? Yes. You have the second nut flush - your read has to be spot on to put them on a boat - and the only hand I think makes sense for a boat is 99.

You have to call this in my opinion - folding the king high flush on a 2NL table with a UTG raise & Triple barrel to me is being nitty.

The river is a really easy fold as any pair beats you.Once the turn pairs and they 3/4p it id probably just fold the turn.Either that or if you think you have enough fold equity you can think of raising the turn .I don't really like calling down when were oop especially on paired boards.They are so obvious when they hit it's hard to get paid and on a paired board you could be drawing dead anyway and added to that it's not even the nfd.Plus oop we really cant do much if we miss on the river unless we intend donk shoving missed draws into them which i don't like.

I think you must fold River. UTG open raise, bet-bet-bet, and you only beat bluffs...

CRStals said:

Preflop I'm OK with this call in general, although I feel like you need to be three-betting this hand sometimes because you're OOP. An UTG raise on a 2NL table could mean a lot so we'll save that for now.

Flop I'd prefer a check raise here. You only have a draw and two overs. By calling you don't really know if the villain hit that flop, has a pair, or was bluffing at it. Would you rather raise here, get them to fold and pick the pot up without drawing to your flush, or risk the pot getting bigger and missing your draw

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Im not sure i follow your logic here, by raising i can pick the pot up if they are bluffing, but im not getting value from anything worse and even if they are bluffing, if im getting the correct odds for my draw then surely its more profitable to call and attempt to get value when i hit rather than trying to take the pot down.

I kind of see what you're saying but in general i thought betting/raising 'for information' wasnt a profitable strategy in the long term?

(Also on a side note its not an UTG open because we were 5 handed so his range is a HJ open rather than an UTG open)

I appreciate the feedback though, I think you're right about 3bet preflop.

WabiSabi said:

The river is a really easy fold as any pair beats you.Once the turn pairs and they 3/4p it id probably just fold the turn.Either that or if you think you have enough fold equity you can think of raising the turn .I don't really like calling down when were oop especially on paired boards.They are so obvious when they hit it's hard to get paid and on a paired board you could be drawing dead anyway and added to that it's not even the nfd.Plus oop we really cant do much if we miss on the river unless we intend donk shoving missed draws into them which i don't like.

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I was calling oop because i had the correct odds for the draw but i hadn't really thought about the paired board and oop making it difficult to get paid if i did hit on the river. I think i should be calling the turn still purely because im getting odds to break even when i hit unless im up against a flopped or rivered set and so folding seems negative EV. In future will think about raising the turn.

Your fold is not bad in reality, the questionable thing is that it does not fit the thought process of nl2. In general, an increase in UTG does not mean a premium hand. In addition, nl2 players in general do not know how to stop and keep betting 3 barrels regardless. That's why I would have made an increase on the turn, you would be surprised how many times the villain who only knows how to bet would retire at this point. So, although your fold is not bad, you should have taken the initiative at some point in the hand. If he continued paying, simply fold.

Hazzer97 said:

I was calling oop because i had the correct odds for the draw but i hadn't really thought about the paired board and oop making it difficult to get paid if i did hit on the river. I think i should be calling the turn still purely because im getting odds to break even when i hit unless im up against a flopped or rivered set and so folding seems negative EV. In future will think about raising the turn.

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You don't really have the odds to call the turn for the draw as you probably have quite bad implied odds.The bare flush draw is 4/1 so you don't get the direct odds on the turn.Then you have to take into account the reverse implied odds when they have a full house or nut flush.Maybe folding the turn is a little tight as the K or J will be an out some percentage of the time though.

MrHachiman said:

Your fold is not bad in reality, the questionable thing is that it does not fit the thought process of nl2. In general, an increase in UTG does not mean a premium hand. In addition, nl2 players in general do not know how to stop and keep betting 3 barrels regardless. That's why I would have made an increase on the turn, you would be surprised how many times the villain who only knows how to bet would retire at this point. So, although your fold is not bad, you should have taken the initiative at some point in the hand. If he continued paying, simply fold.

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I fully agree with this. This is why I recommended raising back because a) it's 2NL, b) I think you give UTG too much credit for a hand, and c) based on them triple barreling if you did push back, and they come over the top then you fold. This is getting information without simply calling down and not knowing where you really stand in the hand.

So...you called the river bet. What did they have?

I was taking into account the exrra 6 outs for a jack or king rather than simply the flush cards.

You mention reverse implied odds and thats extremely helpful. I rarely think in terms of those and the idea that he has a full house or better flush sometimes when i hit my flush didnt even enter my thought process. Im aware of the concept but never think about it because im a fish lol. Thanks a lot this makes a lot of sense and really clicked thinking about it!

Thanks everyone for the advice that im over thinking it a lot for 2NL. Am used to playing higher and was discounting the idea he could triple barrell with air when at 2nl thats perfectly plausible from a fish. Cheers guys for your feedback!

CRStals said:

So...you called the river bet. What did they have?

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He had pocket jacks in the end unfortunately

Hazzer97 said:

He had pocket jacks in the end unfortunately

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I wouldn't really concentrate on the result you could of picked a bluff off here.But it doesn't necessarily make it a +ev call long term.

WabiSabi said:

I wouldn't really concentrate on the result you could of picked a bluff off here.But it doesn't necessarily make it a +ev call long term.

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Yeah although you guys have given me different things to think about that i hadn't, i still think the river call is negative EV. Glad that i lost it tbh as otherwise i probably wouldn't have thought about it so much, posted here and now ive learnt some stuff thatll help in future.

Hazzer97 said:

Yeah although you guys have given me different things to think about that i hadn't, i still think the river call is negative EV. Glad that i lost it tbh as otherwise i probably wouldn't have thought about it so much, posted here and now ive learnt some stuff thatll help in future.

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Keep posting hands i'm always more than happy to help out wherever i can. CRStals did make a good point about this being a good 3bet bluff hand sometimes from these positions as'well.As KJs is going to be one of those combos you play a mixed strategy with here depending on who the raiser is.

WabiSabi said:

Keep posting hands i'm always more than happy to help out wherever i can. CRStals did make a good point about this being a good 3bet bluff hand sometimes from these positions as'well.As KJs is going to be one of those combos you play a mixed strategy with here depending on who the raiser is.

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Cheers man, appreciate all the input. Normally i would be playing KJs as a semi bluff because i usually play balanced as far as i understand it but 2nl im trying to avoid fancy play and just wait for value