2$ NL 6max: TPTK on flop facing large turn bet on overcard

I've been pretty taggy in this session, since some of the others at the table are super loose fish. My stats were 24/18/pretty aggro.

Villain is a regular, and is a bit spewy preflop. I've seen him 4-bet shove AQ preflop with an 80bb stack, but just flat call preflop with aces. He also c-bets which is pretty unusual at these limits.

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Hand #53826726-25913 at Mingo (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 10/Jun/08 23:11:08

devilfish_75 is at seat 3 with $1.98.
Hero is at seat 5 with $4.55.
The button is at seat 1.

MASCARA posts the small blind of $.01.
devilfish_75 posts the big blind of $.02.

Hero:

Pre-flop:

dippywagner folds. Hero raises to $.06.
cardblitzer folds. misty 22 folds. MASCARA folds.
devilfish_75 calls.

Potsize = $0.13

Flop (board: ):

devilfish_75 checks. Hero bets $.10. devilfish_75
calls.

Potsize = $0.33

Turn (board: ):

devilfish_75 bets $.33. Hero......
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What's villain's range, and what's our plan for the rest of the hand? Can we call this bet?

Got any stats on villain? Got any reads on how he plays post flop?

Richyl2008 said:

Got any stats on villain? Got any reads on how he plays post flop?

Click to expand...

No stats, since I don't have PT.

And yeah, post flop play, I have this read (sorry I didn't include it in the original post):

Notes on devilfish_75:
Gets crazy with AKos unpaired,
shoves it when checked to in 3-bet pot.

I'd try to call it down and see the river cheap.
The pot sized bet on the turn could mean anything. Maybe a bluff. Maybe a "I'd better semi-bluff my flush draw."
Maybe he has the K, which would suck.

Bah. I take that back. I don't like his check, then raise with the King. I think he hit it.
I'd fold.

Looks like a typical flop float that hit 2P maybe w/ Ks. Opponent probably expected you to check the flop if you had hit the flush, trips or had AA/KK so he's putting you on AT+ and hoping that you are in love with your hand. Doubt opponent has the flush as I'd expect him to let you bet here again and then lead on the river.

Jillychemung said:

Looks like a typical flop float that hit 2P maybe w/ Ks. Opponent probably expected you to check the flop if you had hit the flush, trips or had AA/KK so he's putting you on AT+ and hoping that you are in love with your hand. Doubt opponent has the flush as I'd expect him to let you bet here again and then lead on the river.

Click to expand...

So we're putting him on K8/KQ/AsKx? That seems a bit narrow to me.

Given his aggression previously, I'm not all that sure what his line means, but I would think if he was bluffing he would lead the flop, or check/raise it. I'm not sure villains at this level are sophisticated enough to c/c flop, bet turn on a semi-bluff. So to me, this is lookin' like a made hand of some sort. Wether its a worse queen, or 2 pair+ is hard for me to say. The only thing that keeps this from being an easy fold for me is that villain would surely play QJ (or worse) with a spade just like this.

His line reps two things, ksXs, that of course just hit turn after calling with the draw on the flop

Or its a hand like a 2 pair or set where villain has thought that they will slow play the flop because they feel they have to, then lead out on the turn

Most likely though villain has KsXs or K,Q.

Since i rely on stats a lot, i end up folding a lot of hands against unknowns, so this i would fold here since that is what i'd do against an unknown

I'd probably fold this here as well. Your hand is really pretty marginal by the turn for the situation. If you call here chances are your going to get fired into again on the river, which may bring another scare card. You'll be in a pretty difficult spot even if there is not a scare card and he bets pot again on the river. I'd say a decent portion of his range here would probably be Ks x, KQ, K8, As x. So I'd say your usually going to be behind most of the time you call in this spot with little room to improve, and if in fact you are ahead now and call he might bluff you off your hand on the river or improve himself.