$16NLHE 6-max: Zoom AA facing shove on Q high flop

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roddy1977

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/11/4

poker stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2690899
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $43.48
SB: $18.96
BB: $16.24
Hero (UTG): $40.05
MP: $9.94
CO: $16.00

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is UTG with Ad Ac
Hero raises to $0.32, 1 fold, CO calls $0.32, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.88) Qh 9h 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $0.64, CO raises to $1.92, Hero raises to $3.20, CO raises to $15.68 all in, Hero ?

Just wondering if people would fold here? Villain's stats (19/11/4) are based on 117 hands, so he's no LAG. The question is would he shove with a draw/AQ as well as a set?
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Tough spot. His tight stats suggest to me he would call with any pair, AQ AJ QK (probably suited) he can have a set but his aggression factor suggests he also capable of shoving draws and maybe AQ KQ. Its close id like to see a bigger hand sample to confirm his high aggression factor.
As it stands Im folding 75% and calling 25% of the time. That might change with better reads. I would also make it x3 pre I don't want too many callers and speculative stuff behind me when utg and oop after the flop.
 
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A

AviCKter

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Touchy spot.
I don't know what I would have done, I probably would have folded. (But I would have thrashed my head on my keyboard a thousand times :D )

Just a question though, why so less raise pre-flop? Why not 3-4x? (Just an observation, I don't have much experience on those limits)
 
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hffjd2000

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He might be bluffing or has a very good hand.

Overall, we dont know where we stand.

In addition, his bet is too much.
 
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roddy1977

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Thanks for the responses guys. It certainly was a tough spot, I was so close to folding - but with a sinking feeling in my gut I called and of course he turned over 99! (I felt like thrashing my head on the keyboard 10,000 times!) :)
I should've known better, as in my experience, unless the villain is a LAG fish, a shove in that scenario (particularly after he initially raised my flop bet a small amount) indicates the nuts or close to it.

@ AviCKter - I think I might start raising 3x BB pre flop, usually my standard raise is 2x the BB as it means steal attempts have to be successful less often to be profitable. However, as it's Zoom, perhaps there's less harm in varying the size of my pre-flop raises in order to protect my better hands - or if I'm OOP as Figaroo2 suggests :)
 
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tomnovember

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I may just call the shoving here. Tough decision
 
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