10nl shove to overpair

Stacks: - rangerpilot with $8.60 - PeasNCar with $9.65 - zachvac with $9.00 - jays_house with $5.00 - BLUNTKING021 with $7.75 - Absolutt with $11.50 - lovetoflop with $5.60 - marco98765 with $2.00 - TgGolf with $16.30




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* - Dealt to zachvac:

* - Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
**- 1 players fold.
* - absolutt calls [$0.10]
* - lovetoflop calls [$0.10]
**- 2 players fold.
* - rangerpilot calls [$0.10]
**- 1 players fold.
* - zachvac raises $0.40 to $0.50
* - jays_house calls [$0.40]
* - absolutt calls [$0.40]
* - 2 players folded.
* - Total folds this street: 6
* - Potsize: $1.7
Flop:

* - zachvac bets [$0.70]
**- 3 players fold.
* - absolutt raises $10.30 to $11 [ all-in ]
???

I don't see how I can call this, but what is he doing this with apart from either a flush draw or maybe top pair? Does he shove with a set, flopped straight, or JJ-AA?
https://www.cardschat.com

Stats?

If he's a regular, non-maniacal player I think that we have to fold even though there are still quite a few overpair/FD type hands you're ahead of.

I was going to say standard fold even to a maniac, but after plugging some numbers into pokerstove it looks like it might actually be a call:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.543% 57.64% 00.90% 70075119 1098246.50 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 41.457% 40.55% 00.90% 49301972 1098246.50 { 33+, AhKh, AhQh, Ah6h, Ah5h }

Yeah, without some kinda read this is not easy. I was checking the name as I was just playing $10NL and had a guy who got really aggressive shoving over a couple of bets into him and I thought it might be the same guy.

But, having seen this guy do this twice, I was looking for a chance to stack him, but he folded his minraise of my flop bet when I hit a set. I shoved hoping to catch him, but got paid off by another guy who couldn't fold his KK.

I pretty much thought it was a standard fold, but a friend was telling me he thought it was an easy call, just because it looks so much like a scared pair, knowing that an over card will most likely come on the turn and they don't want to actually make a decision, or a flush draw, as a really bizarre semi-bluff, or some combination of the 2. So I did fold, he didn't show.

In terms of reads this was the second time he did that at the table, after 15 hands or so. He called with a wide range PF but did a lot of folding postflop. Still doesn't help though because I don't know if he shoved with a set earlier or something like top pair. It could easily be an idiot over-valuing top pair and not wanting the nuts to get cracked, or it could be a legit hand anticipating me thinking like that and hoping I have an over-pair and call. Don't know, but I don't think the fold was a huge mistake.

After playing 10nl a LOT, I'm calling this more often than not. These raises are high cards a LOT more often than they should be, as well as top pair crap kicker.

I've got @ 45 hands on your villain in PT (not a huge sample obviously). He's 45/18/5 over that sample, so he could have anything. I think you have to fold here this time, but if you see it again it's time to call him down. I do have 1 similar hand were he pushed on the turn with a OESD. He was called and lost.

In 10NL i call with overpair probably 100% of the time, based on my experience in that level.

too many hands you beat/draws do this.

I think he puts you on AK, AQ and he has a flush draw. It's a tough call, but I think it's a call you have to make.

with no reads i fold here, he could easily be doing this with a set, straight or 2 pair where we are dominated. If not he at least has an oesd with a pair e.g. 6,5. Where we are only a 55-60% fav i think. But we could also be against a flush draw with a pair which we are aobut same percentage to win, or 2 over cards with a flush draw which we are actually behind against. So i think its a fold basedo n the fact our best hope is to be a 60% fav

P.S. i dont really know what the play is like at these stakes so im more assuming that htey know what they are doing

switch0723 said:

P.S. i dont really know what the play is like at these stakes so im more assuming that htey know what they are doing

Click to expand...

This is a really bad assumption. Seriously.

Jack Daniels said:

This is a really bad assumption. Seriously.

Click to expand...

Well then id have to change my answer to call all day long i assume

switch0723 said:

Well then id have to change my answer to call all day long i assume

Click to expand...

I wasn't necessarily arguing the rest of your post, just the assumption that many players at 10NL know what they're doing. It's quite the opposite.

oh ok, i see now