10NL QQ Overpair with caller

SeanyJ

SeanyJ

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pokerstars Game #15770867996: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/03/05 - 22:17:20 (ET)
Table 'Aho' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: mspitolai ($24.20 in chips)
Seat 2: MrCurahee ($18.05 in chips)
Seat 3: bagnus ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Dittche ($2.90 in chips)
Seat 5: vinz01 ($12.85 in chips)
Seat 6: GZA1985 ($8.85 in chips)
Seat 7: rockman255 ($30.05 in chips)
Seat 8: SeanyJ24 ($13.15 in chips)
Seat 9: hevmetal1 ($9.40 in chips)
SeanyJ24: posts small blind $0.05
hevmetal1: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SeanyJ24 [Qs Qd]
mspitolai: folds
MrCurahee: calls $0.10
bagnus: folds
Dittche: folds
vinz01: folds
GZA1985: folds
rockman255: raises $0.50 to $0.60
SeanyJ24: raises $0.90 to $1.50
hevmetal1: folds
MrCurahee: folds
rockman255: calls $0.90
*** FLOP *** [5d 7d 6c]
SeanyJ24: bets $2
rockman255: calls $2
*** TURN *** [5d 7d 6c] [8s]
SeanyJ24: ...

Villain is 21.05/8/.6 over only 38 hands
I'm not sure what I was at, probably around 15/7/3

What to do, what to do.
 
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RMcLeod

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I think I would fold here myself, there's lots of hands that he could have that have you beat.

He could have 2 diamonds for the flush draw, he could have hit a straight and he could have a lower pp that has hit a set.

Saying that after putting $3.50 in the pot it's a hard one.
 
Genso Hikki

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Well if it were me I'd probably check/call here unless he bets really big then I'd think hard about folding. The problem with putting him on a straight here is that he bet pre-flop and then called your re-raise. Of course, I suppose he could do that with Ace, 9 or Ace, 4, but I don't know, that's a pretty big pre-flop committment with that kind of iffy hand.
 
SavagePenguin

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I think Rockman255 has an over pair or A/xd (A/T-A/K).
I don't put the straight snugly in his range, unless he has 9/9.

Assuming an over pair, 9/9, K/K, and A/A would be really bad for you. That means you can beat T/T and J/J. So if I'm right about the over pair you're a dog. Of course, the A/x of diamonds is good possibility as well, so you have a good shot at being ahead here.

If it were me, I'd bet at this point. Let *him* fear the straight and let *him* decide if he wants to pay to chase a flush (because I'm not letting him draw to it for free).

Should he call or raise at that point I'd be done putting money into the pot. Well, maybe a crying call on the river.
 
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Anexa

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Foresight

This seems like one of those hands that I am just getting used to myself where a little foresight is in order. The $2 bet here makes it difficult for you to not give away your fear of the straight without basically pot committing yourself (Because betting less on later rounds will be a dead give away that you don't have a straight). I think that a bet of $1 to $1.25 might have been better to start with since there was already a possible completed str8 on the flop. This gives you more room to maneuver later, and this way your bet on the turn can be $2 and not look like a fearful bet.

If we really think about his likely hand range it could be AA, KK, JJ-88, AKd, AJd. Your position here really hurts you and I think you did the right thing pre-flop by re-raising him to compensate. However, the range of hands that you can beat is pretty small. 55-88 gives him a set, AA and KK have you beat. Pocket 10's are drawing at a straight, and pocket 99s have a straight. So the hand you beat out of his likely range is JJ. Even 44 has you beat. You really only beat JJ solidly unless he called your re-raise with something stupid.

I would tread very carefully here, the board texture is not in your favor and more often than not you will probably lose here. Your chance to improve is slim and everyone else's is pretty high. Even a Q leaves you in a tough position with all the straight possibilities. I know this seems like a lot of rambling so I guess I'll get to what I'd do.

If I was going to bet, I would bet at least slightly more then I did last time because it is a big display of weakness to bet less. If you're too afraid to bet more than $2 this time around then I would just check, no point betting less then that and giving your hand away. At least a check could be interpreted as a setup for a potential check raise, or as slowplaying. I would take any significant re-raises seriously and probably fold.

It's best to look at this situation as more than just this hand. Will he beat you most of the time is the question. Based on the hand ranges above, he does beat you more often than not, so your equity in this pot is pretty low. He might be crazy or something and trying to bluff you but that is also a bad play for him because he will lose more often than not.

The results of this particular situation are not nearly as important as the fact that on average, when this situation comes up you are likely to lose. I wouldn't be dismayed about the actual outcome of this hand, even if you go the safe route and check the rest of the way at least you now know more about his betting patterns and how they match up with his hands and also what he's capable of.

*I know this is long, but I really like to go through my whole thought process so that it can be compared to the thought processes of others. :)
 
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phatjose

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Over 311 hands I have this same Rockman255 at 26/5/2 fwiw.

Based on that, and I am pretty sure I remember this guy as the type to play suited connectors even with a 3 bet, I would probably check and try and keep the pot small. If he wants to bet large, then I would just dump the hand. This board hits too much of his range, and you are really only beating 1010/JJ/complete air.
 
NineLions

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If we really think about his likely hand range it could be AA, KK, JJ-88, AKd, AJd. Your position here really hurts you and I think you did the right thing pre-flop by re-raising him to compensate. However, the range of hands that you can beat is pretty small. 55-88 gives him a set, AA and KK have you beat. Pocket 10's are drawing at a straight, and pocket 99s have a straight. So the hand you beat out of his likely range is JJ. Even 44 has you beat. You really only beat JJ solidly unless he called your re-raise with something stupid.


I don't know how likely AA/KK are given that he didn't 4 bet preflop or reraise the flop bet. Now, I say that given that's probably what I would do at those points, but that doesn't mean everyone does this.


If I was going to bet, I would bet at least slightly more then I did last time because it is a big display of weakness to bet less.

This I find interesting. It sounds like your talking blocking bet sizing without regards to pot odds. I'm curious to ask, without being offensive I hope, whether you're familiar with pot odds and would take that into consideration here, or whether you're basing this purely on experience.
 
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quick response before class

Thanks for the response and questions.

To the first point: When I was choosing a hand range I included AA and KK because some players don't play these correctly or don't want to discourage someone form playing so they will play them less aggressively. Even though it's not as likely as some of their other hands, I like to include them so that I can be prepared for the worst case scenario. Some people realize that they're basically screaming "AA" when they keep re-raising so some of them will stop so that their hand is not as obvious. I don't know this player all that well so I figured it was best to give him credit for them.

To the second point:

Pot odds are important but they don't work as well if you're already beat which is entirely possible on most of his likely hand range. In terms of the pot odds you are giving him it would take a fairly large bet to discourage him from playing with a strong draw because of the implied odds that are working against you here. If he has put you on an over pair then he probably figures it is likely that you will call a big bet later on, especially after committing a lot of chips (which is where you are heading with that first bet) . Basically, in a hand like this I would prefer to make it to the end with my stack intact and learn what I can about his play here.

I wouldn't want to risk my stack here because like I said in the previous post, you are going to lose most of the time on a flop like this. I'm not saying the $2 bet is wrong, but based on what I've seen (i'm no pro or anything) over-committing yourself here could be dangerous.

Since you did bet $2 I would definitely check the the turn to at least make it look ike I'm possibly being deceptive but I would never bet less than $2 it just looks suspicious. Also what makes me nervous is that your best chance to improve (another Q) is already beaten by a straight.

I hope this clarifies a bit! :)
 
Genso Hikki

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I let *him* decide if he wants to pay to chase a flush (because I'm not letting him draw to it for free).

This is an excellent point and makes me reconsider my thoughts about check calling on the turn.
 
A

Anexa

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The problem is that his hand could include way more than a flush draw. You could already be beat, that changes the case from one where you are only worried about someone drawing. The bet on the flop is a good one I think but I would be careful after that turn especially after he called a $2 bet. As discussed above, his range is likely to include a lot of hands that have already won even without a flush.
 
SavagePenguin

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I agree that it's a tricky situation.
I totally agree that we could easily be beat. It's a tricky spot.

I think that betting gets us the best information, and comes with some nice fold equity. Is it *enough* fold equity? I think it is, but but not by a lot.

If we fold, he will bet and we will be chased off and we won't learn much.
 
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Anexa

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Yeah I definitely agree with that. Like I said earlier, I think you guys are right about betting being correct there.

My understanding of fold equity isn't all that great, but isn't it the percentage of hands the villain is likely to fold? In that case, the fold equity can't be very good, but like I said, I'm still learning about fold equity.

Do you mind explaining fold equity savage and how you apply it here? This could be a pretty big leak in my thinking process at the table.
 
SeanyJ

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*** TURN *** [5d 7d 6c] [8s]
SeanyJ24: bets $4
rockman255: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [5d 7d 6c 8s] [3c]
SeanyJ24:...?

I'm going to tell you guys as I was playing this hand I didn't even realize that there were 4 cards to a straight out there, I know that's pretty pathetic but I don't need to bother lying about it :p
 
SeanyJ

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I'd like to know if people would keep betting or just check on the river. I think most people are going to say check fold but I just want to make sure :p
 
Genso Hikki

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I would probably check/call the river. I'm not likely to bet, since the only thing that calls me has me beat, but depending on the size of his bet I doubt I'm folding. If he was chasing the flush he missed and I still feel like that's his most likely hand.
 
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check/call. By betting we are only going to be called by a hand that beats us. I check this to villain to allow him an opportunity to steal the pot with a busted draw, that is the only way to get value from hand worse than ours
 
SavagePenguin

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*** TURN *** [5d 7d 6c] 8♠
SeanyJ24: bets $4
rockman255: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [5d 7d 6c 8s] 3♣
SeanyJ24:...?
He called the $4 raise. We know we're probably beat, so I'd check/fold.

I assume that he either has the straight or he fell in love with an over pair (A/A or K/K). Either way we're doomed.
 
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switch0723

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^^^ Why not a flush draw? or an uncertain top pair?
 
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Anexa

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If we really think about his likely hand range it could be AA, KK, JJ-88, AKd, AJd. Your position here really hurts you and I think you did the right thing pre-flop by re-raising him to compensate. However, the range of hands that you can beat is pretty small. 55-88 gives him a set, AA and KK have you beat. Pocket 10's are drawing at a straight, and pocket 99s have a straight. So the hand you beat out of his likely range is JJ. Even 44 has you beat. You really only beat JJ solidly unless he called your re-raise with something stupid.
This hand range contains the likely flush draws AJd and AKd. This guy also called a re-raise to $1.50.
 
SeanyJ

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*** RIVER *** [5d 7d 6c 8s] [3c]
SeanyJ24: bets $5.65 and is all-in
rockman255: calls $5.65
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SeanyJ24: shows [Qs Qd] (a pair of Queens)
rockman255: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings)
rockman255 collected $25.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $26.50 | Rake $1.25
Board [5d 7d 6c 8s 3c]
Seat 1: mspitolai folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: MrCurahee folded before Flop
Seat 3: bagnus folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Dittche folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: vinz01 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: GZA1985 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: rockman255 (button) showed [Ks Kd] and won ($25.25) with a pair of Kings
Seat 8: SeanyJ24 (small blind) showed [Qs Qd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 9: hevmetal1 (big blind) folded before Flop

Well after he just called my raise before the flop I didn't put him on AA or KK. As I said earlier I didn't even notice there was 4 to a straight on the board which didn't help the situation. I put him on AK or AQ of diamonds and as you can see I was way off.
 
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