10NL: QQ Flop decision

Stars game. Sitting for a little while 7 tabling, so no real idea. His numbers were 41/11/4.4 over 56 hands. His 7x pre-flop raise seems like AA/KK, or AK. I was running 36/9/.05 over 11 hands, but not sure if he was aware of that. Wanted to 3 bet to see what type of action he would give and what he was planning on doing. When he just called I figured for AK, 10s+. His bet into me on the flop has me worried, but this is the type of flop I was looking for.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1.40)
UTG ($17.80)
UTG+1 ($21.15)
MP1 ($1.75)
MP2 ($23.70)
Hero (CO) ($13.95)
Button ($5.65)
SB ($13)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises $0.70, 2 folds, Hero raises $1.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.80

Flop: ($3.15) 9 , 8 , 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.90, Hero ??

Given his numbers I'm putting on AK or JJ. The 7xBB pflop raise IMO is too stiff for AA/KK. His postflop bet makes me think JJ as AK would not come out so strong. I go over the top here and hope my read is correct.

I put villain on JJ, maybe TT or (very slight chance) AcKc or KK.

Definitely feels like JJ. The large raise preflop is to scare away KQ and Ax hands. Some people will smooth call the three-bet preflop with AA/KK but would then let you take the lead in betting the flop. The problem is if he has TT/JJ he has 10 or 6 outs to beat you, although you have some backdoor draw possibilities as well.

for me you didnt raise enough preflop here. nothing is that scary. he is big stack. yeah there is a rest of risk. but if you dont push with this flop you must give up poker. yeah you see straight and flush draw danger here but its poker. there is no ace no king at flop. if not now to push when then.

You're giving him way too much credit for having a hand after he calls your small 3-bet. He raises preflop with 11% of his hands, and he's loose. His range after you raise and he calls likely remains largely unchanged, except that it seems that AA and KK can probably be removed. "Putting him on JJ" is a bit silly, since that's only 6 combos of the 120 or so that are in his range. Don't make the mistake of thinking your opponents think and act like you do, because they don't. If your numbers on this guy are near his true values, he doesn't think very much at all about what he's doing.

The preflop 3-bet must be much larger. You talk about raising for information: don't. Raise with queens in order to get it all-in preflop. You want him to shove when it gets back to him, and you should be fistpumping as you call. Raise enough so that the pot gets big enough on a flop like this to make your decisions trivial.

On to the flop: Awful flop for you. Still, with the stack size, I don't see how you can do anything but shove. He'll look you up with a whole slew of hands that you're way ahead of, most notably straightdraws, including TT and JJ, and A9, A8, some combo draws like T9 and quite possibly also just a hand like AQ that just bets because he thinks it's fun to bet.

Sometimes, he'll have AK and just fold to your shove. While it's true that you'd rather he call you with AK rather than fold, the pot is big enough that the fold equity is nothing to sneeze at.

It's a sucky flop, but the pot is big enough that your options are limited. That's a good thing, by the way. I'd have liked a bigger 3-bet if only to make your options even more limited on the flop, but this'll do.

Ok, so raising more pre-flop will definitely get me more information and hopefully value out of this hand.

10's+, AK, and possibly AQ come along for the ride I think pre=flop. His stats were pretty loose, but were over a very small sample amount. And I cant base all my plays and moves off of stats.

I mean the way he played this hand it looks like 10's or JJ. I cant see anything else. But again, everyone doesnt play the same so he could have almost anything at this spot.

chink44 said:

Ok, so raising more pre-flop will definitely get me more information and hopefully value out of this hand.

10's+, AK, and possibly AQ come along for the ride I think pre=flop. His stats were pretty loose, but were over a very small sample amount. And I cant base all my plays and moves off of stats.

I mean the way he played this hand it looks like 10's or JJ. I cant see anything else. But again, everyone doesnt play the same so he could have almost anything at this spot.

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Still way too much credit, unless you know something more about this opponent that his stats aren't telling us.

His opening range seems to be: 22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,87s,AJo+,KQo (that's ~11%). This is a bit off given that bad players don't actually think in terms of which hands are best, they tend to raise when they see something they like. Some players like A2 more than they do 87s. But it's a decent benchmark.

A guy this loose doesn't fold much of this when you 3-bet him that small. And on the contrary to what you may think, he doesn't fold much of it even if you make the raise larger. He's loose; calling is what he likes to do. If you want to read something into his larger-than-normal raise, then that's one thing, but I really prefer having seen a showdown first to get an idea of what he's doing raising big before drawing any major conclusions about it.

F Paulsson said:

His opening range seems to be: 22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,87s,AJo+,KQo (that's ~11%). This is a bit off....

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I'll say it is a bit off

Whats up with you, hand ranges, and computer calculations, lol? Your opening range doesn't take into account position, whether there is a raise in front of villain, and the amount of the raise. Trying to equate 11% of the hand ranges with being equivalent to villains 11% stat is WAY OFF. You are seriously going to give a QTs as raising 7xbb UTG+1 just because it fits nicely into your subjective mathematical hand range?

I could post villain is loose so he raises 100% of the time on the button regardless of what he holds. Given 8 players that is ~11% and that accounts for his statistic. That is just as valid as your hand range theory.

And it is not just that villain raised here, he raised 7xBB. He could easily be min-raising 90% of the time with the hand range you have outlined, but when he bumps up to 7xBB he has AK. So ~9% of his 11% stat is min-raising. You don't know.

Alright then.