[10nl] Nut Draw on Paired Board

[The Shrog]

Stacks:
UTG with $3.50
UTG+1 with $10.95
MP1 with $16.30
MP2 with $10.00
MP3 with $20.80
CO with $10.00
BTN with $10.10
SB with $1.75
BB with $3.00

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Pokerstars
Dealt to MP2:J♣ A♣
Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
1 players fold.
UTG+1 calls [$0.10]
1 players fold.
Hero raises $0.40 to $0.50
5 players fold.
UTG+1 calls [$0.40]
Total folds this street: 7
Potsize: $1.15
Flop:
5♣ 8♥ 8♣
UTG+1 bets [$1.10]

Villain is laggy, but this screams something like 66, 77, ect. I don't know if he'll lay it down if I raise the flop, so what's our line here? I was actually raising PF trying to isolate this guy.

 

[S93]

Have any stats on villain? what is his donk bet %?

 

[Dr_Dick]

Given you were the pflop raiser, if he is so strong, i.e. has an 8 or big PP, why is he not checking this flop? What is he afraid of, why does he want to take the pot right now. I agree 77, 66 are possibles but then why not a blocking bet?

Re-raise to $5, commit your stack. This stops him from coming back over the top. This gives you fold equity, you have two overs and you have a great draw.

 

[The Shrog]

Re-raise to $5, commit your stack. This stops him from coming back over the top.

I understand your idea of the FE and my 2 overs with the flush draw, but raising to $5 doesn't necessarily STOP him from shoving.

 

[bw07507]

I understand your idea of the FE and my 2 overs with the flush draw, but raising to $5 doesn't necessarily STOP him from shoving.

We don't care if he shoves once we have $5 in, since we are pot committed. You are more than 50% against a PP other than 88 or 55 here. Just raise and get this in on the flop.

 

[bob_tiger]

raise it up to about 3.70-4$, I don't mind taking the pot here or possibly getting it on the turn if villain flats, of course based on the turn.

 

[frisellan]

I agree. if you raise to $4.00-$5.00 and he is bluffing or semi bluffing he is gone. If he puts you in you have 9- outs to the nut flush plus possibly 6 more with your overs.

if he has eightX 9- outs max
22 - 1010 15- outs
JJ - AA nine+ outs
smaller flush draw (he should fold) or dominated

So if it all goes in the middle you are not a dead man unless he called something retarded preflop to your raise
85

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Stats on villain would be nice as it's easier to assign ranges.

Against an unknow I'm happy making a pot-commiting raise here. We're probably about break-even although slightly behind his total range whose legitimate part consists of 5x, 8x, small pocket pairs, straight and flush draws, but fold equity more than makes it up for us. Bet sizing should be made solely with the intention to try to maximize fold-equity. Not sure what accomplishes that best at 10nl.