10NL - Making a bet that only winners will call and losers fold to?

SubT33

SubT33

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Silver Level
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Jan 1, 2008
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Stacks:
* SB with $4.65
* BB with $9.10
* UTG with $8.20
* UTG+1 with $3.40
* MP1(HERO) with $5.60
* MP2 with $9.65
* CO with $4.00
* BTN with $12.95
hand.pl

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP1:J♥ T♥
* * Sklansky group 3
Preflop:
* * UTG calls [$0.10]
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$0.10]
* * CO checks
* * 2 players fold.
* * SB calls [$0.05]
* * BB checks
* * Total folds this street: 3
* * Potsize: $0.4
Flop:
* * Q♥ 2♠ 4♣
* * SB checks
* * BB checks
* * UTG checks
* * Hero checks
* * CO checks
* * Potsize: $0.4
Turn:
* * 3♥
* * SB checks
* * BB checks
* * UTG checks
* * Hero bets [$0.20]
* * 1 players fold.
* * SB calls [$0.20]
* * 2 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 3
* * Potsize: $0.8
River:
* * 8♠
* * SB checks
* * Hero checks



The villain had just sat down to the table. I always struggle with knowing when a bet on the river will only be called by hands that have me beat. But I guess this holding, because it was crap, could only be valued when used to bluff. Any thoughts and reactions are appreciated.
 
B

baudib1

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Well you could bet 30 cents and hope he folds; that only has to work about 40% of the time to be profitable. However, the way the board looks, it's unlikely he's folding any pair.
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

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I'm not sure J.10s is the type of hand you want to limp with in MP. And with 56bb's I'm not sure it's the type of hand you should be playing, but I usually don't play mid-stack poker and don't really know the optimal strategy (not that I know one for any form of poker).

I'm not a big fan of the semi-bluff into 5 people on the turn when there's only 1 other player left to act after you. Fold-equity is probably close to zero.

I would suggest learning how to play short-stack (unless that's what you were doing at this table and had already doubled up), and just folding this hand preflop.

OR

Buy in for the full amount and raising this hand preflop if you still want to play it and the table seems relatively tight and weak. Otherwise just dump it.
 
S

sw7104

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PreF: Folding would certainly have been sound given your position & cards. Limping, if you thought you could get away with it (and you were correct), is also acceptable.

Flop: Checking flop is also correct, given the board, your hand, position, etc.

Turn: Raising 1/2 pot into the turn into 5 callers, with an overcard, and a possible made straight, on the semi-bluff is incorrect.

If you are trying to win out, then your bet is too small and the risk of an overcard pair too great.

If you are trying to block a raise that would be unprofitable for you to call, then your bet is too large. You want something smaller that meets 4:1 implied odds that you will draw your flush.

River: Not knowing this player's tendencies, I would surrender and put nothing more into the pot. If you thought you could bluff and win, then work out the math b/f you make a decision.
 
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