Stu, the point is that there are way more underpairs and draws than their are sets. If you flop xxK with AK, are you checking in fear of sets? Of course not, you bet to get value from underpairs and worse kings, and deal with a raise when we get there.
It's a clear turn bet. Flop is sort of debatable, but it's fine if you plan on barreling.
I get what you guys are saying.
The turn is a def bet, but the flop action has now built the pot bigger than our hand. We cant fold but had the pot been kept under control on the flop, the turn bet would be more in relation to the strength of the hand.
A c-bet, for me, has to have a likely hood of getting the villian to fold there and then.. with this flop, I cant see people folding enough to make it a good flop to c-bet
I would only check the turn because I feel that we are possibly walking into a set trap. If you bet first, then you are clearly representing TP, the pot is sizable enough that hands that cannot beat TP will fold. So you will only be called by a set. If you check the turn, its likely that the villian will bet the turn, representing TP because he thinks its a scar card to you.
Either way you will be putting money into the pot, but the villian will be less likely to call if he cannot beat TP. So the times that he is beat by TP, he will put money in the pot because you checked.
If he has a set he is likely to think that the K is a scare card and will also check trying to keep you in the hand. So when against a set, the check saves you money, but makes you money when against a lower par.
You could argue that the turn has put you in a way ahead / way behind situation, because the pot is now too large to be attractive to weaker hands.
The river then becomes a half pot bet (this would be a lower bet had the flop been checked)
If you call a raise on the flop, you are more likely to be ahead on the river so the bet here is smallish.. trying to entice the villian to call with a lower pair.
If he checked the flop also, he is unlikely to raise the river because either he has a set.. and will see no point in rereaising as you are unlikely to call with a pair.
If he has a lower pair, he may call thinking that you are bluffing
There is a third (unlikely option) he might fold a set of 6's because the hand plays out exactly like a pair of kings hitting a set of K's on the turn.. Ok he is unlikely to fold.. but its a possibility brought about by the check on the turn
Please pick apart the logic.. ill learn from it, but thats where I am at this point in my poker playing life