10NL, flopped straight on flush board

[phatjose]

pokerstars Game #16386124317: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/03/31 - 12:19:40 (ET)
Table 'Medon III' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: vince_APC ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: littlebanban ($9.95 in chips)
Seat 3: gabo2584 ($4.35 in chips)
Seat 4: Paulyman ($10 in chips)
Seat 5: gotoin ($7.95 in chips)
Seat 6: phatjose ($11.70 in chips)
Seat 7: Sick Donk ($10 in chips)
Seat 8: Icebreaker77 ($9.60 in chips)
Seat 9: RAM1111 ($7.30 in chips)
gabo2584: posts small blind $0.05
Paulyman: posts big blind $0.10
vince_APC: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to phatjose [7s 8s]
gotoin: raises $0.30 to $0.40
phatjose: calls $0.40
Sick Donk: folds
Icebreaker77: folds
RAM1111: folds
vince_APC: folds
littlebanban: folds
gabo2584: calls $0.35
Paulyman: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 4c 6c]
gabo2584: bets $0.10
gotoin: raises $0.10 to $0.20
phatjose: ??


Gabo2584 is running 21/5/2.4 through 202 hands.
Gotoin is running 28/21/9 through only 28 hands so not much on him.

If I were heads up, I would almost definitely be raising, but with both of them in the pot, how likely am I facing an already made flush, and what's my move here?

 

[switch0723]

i think you have to assume your ahead at this point and you need to bump it up. Just raise it to 1$ for now, push to a re raise, call any shove then re evaluate turn

 

[KenFischer]

If someone is holding 2 clubs, you are already drawing dead. If they have one, they still will outdraw you about 1/3 of the time.

They are both at least somewhat interested in this flop, and you can't close out the betting, so it could get really expensive to stay in to the end of the hand.

You are only in for 4BB - I can't see how playing this out vs. folding would be profitable in the long run. If we were heads-up, I might reconsider, but still would probably give it up to any pressure.

 

[feitr]

You have to come over the top so i'd make it about 80c at least. The odds of flopping a flush is something like 1:118 i believe so i wouldn't be worrying that much that one of them has a made flush. A min raise doesn't mean anything...he could just be trying to make you lay down a small pair coz of the board or something. If somebody pushed all in i guess you should lay it down, but one of them could push all in with a set, overpair or anything. Seems he is a pretty loose player anyways so i wouldn't put him on much. So raise up to 80c/$1, see what they do.

 

[Bentheman87]

I think you should raise it to like $1 or so. If another club comes just give up the pot, and if the board pairs slowdown but don't give it up just yet. It's very likely one of them has the nut flush draw with AK or AQ and thinks they have 15 outs, but against your straight they only have 9 outs. It's also possible one of them has a set.

 

[KenFischer]

I think you should raise it to like $1 or so. If another club comes just give up the pot, and if the board pairs slowdown but don't give it up just yet. It's very likely one of them has the nut flush draw with AK or AQ and thinks they have 15 outs, but against your straight they only have 9 outs. It's also possible one of them has a set.

The set actually has better odds - they have 10 outs to improve. What is even worse is that there are no shared outs between your two opponents if they really have what you are putting them on - that means there are 19 outs against you if they both stay in.

Assuming A♣Q♥ and 6♦6♥, your 8♠7♠ should win 36% of the time with this board. Assuming that there is no more betting other than the call of your $1 raise (which I doubt, but it's the only possible way this could ever be even close to profitable), you could expect to win $1.40 once, but will lose your $1 twice (on average).

Granted, that's not factoring in implied odds from future bets, but I think that the potential loss from a reraise or bets that lead up to the board pairing or a backdoor flush outweighs that.

I still think folding is the only profitable option.

 

[feitr]

You've got to be kidding me...

Gotoin min raised 10c. He would probably do that with absolute air considering he is 28/21/9 and we have no idea what the other guy would led out 10c with. Gotoin could also possibly have an overpair, which he could certainly think is good.

You are probably way way ahead imo. I highly highly doubt anything but a 4th club on the board is going to beat you. I wouldn't even be scared about the board pairing coz the odds of a set is very small.

Ken if you are so willing to fold flopped straights to an aggressive player min raising i don't know how you expect to ever win pots.

Poker Tracker stats hardly tell the entire story tho...does this guy reraise bets alot trying to steal pots etc etc?

And sure one of them could have flopped a flush, but unless you come over the top you have no clue where you are at and even thinking about folding this to a bet - min raise is absolutely absurb imo. Its NL10 :S it isn't like these are likely to be good or tight players.

Assuming A♣Q♥ and 6♦6♥,

I don't see why you would assume almost the worst possible situation...

If somebody reraised you to like 3$, (and especially if the other guy called) you should probably fold, but beyond that i don't see why you should think you are in a bad spot. But again, imo players at these stakes will probably think that 2 pair/set/overpair are the nuts and would be willing to shove with any hand like that, all of which you are way ahead. It also isn't like any of the villains in the pot are tight.

 

[KenFischer]

Ken if you are so willing to fold flopped straights to an aggressive player min raising i don't know how you expect to ever win pots.

Since when is success as a poker player measured by whether you win a particular pot?

Deciding to walk away from a minimum investment when the odds say that it's -EV to stay in the hand is the kind of thing that winning players are able to do.

Sure, they might be bluffing, but my ego can handle laying down the best hand on occasion if it means that I don't spend an entire session trying to win back my losses from an ill-advised conflict.

I don't see why you would assume almost the worst possible situation...

That was specifically in direct response to Bentheman87's "read":

It's very likely one of them has the nut flush draw with AK or AQ and thinks they have 15 outs, but against your straight they only have 9 outs. It's also possible one of them has a set.

In the interest of fairness, change their hands to 9♦2♣ and 3♦3♥ and our hero only wins 59% of the time. I'm fairly certain we can put them on a range that is better than this, and even if we don't, we barely have any edge at all.

I'm still waiting for someone to show that calling here is profitable - putting the money in the middle just because someone's stats/history says LAG isn't good enough, in my opinion

 

[Bentheman87]

Ken, when we are 50% to win or higher it's correct to call no matter what the pot odds, if someone overbets the pot and we are 59% to win here like you say then it's still correct to call.

 

[KenFischer]

Ken, when we are 50% to win or higher it's correct to call no matter what the pot odds, if someone overbets the pot and we are 59% to win here like you say then it's still correct to call.

I don't dispute that, but the 59% is based on an artificially optimistic, best possible case scenario. I don't really think we can expect them to both be drawing that slim in this case. With all that said, I am trying to make sure I'm accurate here, so I'll give the math a try.

I do think it's reasonable to simplify the problem and assume that the only real danger is either the made flush or a flush draw that hits. The question then is what are the odds that at least one of them holds a club, making us vulnerable to losing this way?

With 5 cards known, and 3 clubs seen, the odds of any random card being a club is just over 21%. With 4 hole cards against us, we can expect at least one of them to be a club 84% of the time - so, we will assume that both of them are drawing dead that 16% of the time.

Anyone with a single club can expect to make their flush about 35% of the time, so the combined odds of being outdrawn seem to be about 30%. Add 4% for the chance that someone already has 2 clubs, and we'll win 66% of the time if my calculations are right.

Running our known hand against [Ac][Qh] and [Kh][Kd] gives a win rate of just under 60%, but I'm not accounting for quads, the long-shot str8flush or a 3-way split, so I think 60-65% is a reasonable percentage.

So... I will concede the point that the raw numbers seem to indicate this is a profitable play.

I'm still not sure how much you have to discount the 60% win rate based on the action we are seeing - a lot depends on how they react to a raise, but I'm concerned that once we do that, we're probably either winning a small pot, or facing a bigger raise.

If they are willing to continue putting chips into the pot, we're likely playing with less than optimum odds, which I still believe makes this not nearly as attractive a situation as we are hoping it is.

 

[switch0723]

[X] is amazed that ken think getting money in with the best hand considering villain's ranges is a bad idea

 

[KenFischer]

[X] is amazed that ken think getting money in with the best hand considering villain's ranges is a bad idea

[X] is amazed that so many people are discounting the fact that even a villian can call with any 2 sooted cards, get lucky, and flop a flush

 

[switch0723]

^^^ True but you cant always think someone has a flush when the board contains a 3 flush, if someone has flopped the flush its just a cooler

 

[SavagePenguin]

There's what, $1.35 in the pot?

I'd bet about $1, maybe $1.25 here.

We are very likely to be ahead and should get our money in while we have the advantage, putting enough in to give the other players improper odds to call.

Gotoin's min-raise means that he has a drawing hand like one club or two high cards that he would like to pair to the turn or river, so he can be driven off.
The odds of gabo2584 having a made hand are slim as well.

 

[feitr]

Ken i think you are just too concerned about somebody drawing out on you. Sure it happens, but if you are ahead in a hand you can't lay a hand down because you might get drawn out on.

What is more likely to happen is that the turn comes a dead card, you bet and the villain (presuming only one stays in the hand) has to make a poor pot odds call and hope to hell he hits his 9 out draw on the river, or folds.

If you consider folding to a 10c bet then min raise in NL10, you will be laying down a flopped straight to 2 overcards no FD, or something like A6 alot of the time. I can't even comprehend considering laying this down just coz the flop came all suited, unless you encounter alot of resistance, and then it comes down to the read you have of the players regarding the hand ranges they would consider "good" on such a flop.

 

[phatjose]

Well, I ended up raising it up to $1 and both of them called. Turn came the 2c so I was done with the hand then, especially when gabo2584 shoved into both of us.

The thing I didn't like about this hand was the min bet and min raise. At 10NL, those usually mean one of two things, either they are making a blocking bet to give themselves odds to draw, or they already have a monster and are trying to squeeze out some more money.