re: Poker & 10NL, flopped straight on flush board
Originally Posted by Bentheman87
Ken, when we are 50% to win or higher it's correct to call no matter what the pot odds, if someone overbets the pot and we are 59% to win here like you say then it's still correct to call.
I don't dispute that, but the 59% is based on an artificially optimistic, best possible case scenario. I don't really think we can expect them to both be drawing that slim in this case. With all that said, I am trying to make sure I'm accurate here, so I'll give the math a try.
I do think it's reasonable to simplify the problem and assume that the only real danger is either the made flush or a flush draw that hits. The question then is what are the odds that at least one of them holds a club, making us vulnerable to losing this way?
With 5 cards known, and 3 clubs seen, the odds of any random card being a club is just over 21%. With 4 hole cards against us, we can expect at least one of them to be a club 84% of the time - so, we will assume that both of them are drawing dead that 16% of the time.
Anyone with a single club can expect to make their flush about 35% of the time, so the combined odds of being outdrawn seem to be about 30%. Add 4% for the chance that someone already has 2 clubs, and we'll win 66% of the time if my calculations are right.
Running our known hand against A♣Q♥
gives a win rate of just under 60%, but I'm not accounting for quads, the long-shot str8flush or a 3-way split, so I think 60-65% is a reasonable percentage.
So... I will concede the point that the raw numbers seem to indicate this is a profitable play.
I'm still not sure how much you have to discount the 60% win rate based on the action we are seeing - a lot depends on how they react to a raise, but I'm concerned that once we do that, we're probably either winning a small pot, or facing a bigger raise.
If they are willing to continue putting chips into the pot, we're likely playing with less than optimum odds, which I still believe makes this not nearly as attractive a situation as we are hoping it is.