10nl, boat any good facing huge overshove?

standard unknown villain, this is the only time he has raised preflop in about 15 hands

full tilt poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $12.30
BB: $10.25
UTG: $3.95
UTG+1: $5.15
UTG+2: $5.40
MP1: $10
MP2: $4.70
CO: $7.60
Hero (BTN): $9.50

MP1 posts $0.10
Pre-Flop: 6 6 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 folds, MP1 checks, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.40, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30, MP1 folds, CO calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.80) 9 A A (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.80) K (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.80) 6 (4 Players)
SB bets $7.30, 2 folds, now what does hero do?

sigh call

Any Ace might do this is he was chasing a flush, QQ-10's might do this after all the checking thinking they are good, Could also be a shove bluff. I call and expect to be good a majority of the time, not a huge majority but still.

Wow this really sucks. A severely misplayed AT-AQ is like the only hands you beat. I don't really even mind folding this, but in the heat of the moment I probably call. Its probably a pretty neutral EV decision.

AK is certainly in his range...seems like this is a line he would take with this hand..probably bet out on the turn with AQ/AJ..I'm kinda torn here, without reads I'm not really sure, but I don't necessarily HATE a fold.

I think it's really close. He's first to act on the river against 3 opponents and he shoves? He's either got a bigger boat or AQ, I really can't see anything else. I probably call cause I'm a huge station but I'm never surprised to see my $$ being shipped the other way here.

I call. It's pretty stupid to check two streets with trips/quads/bigger boat an then overbet the river, but there are a lot of stupid people.

I fold, with sb first to act multiway, could certainly have played AK or KK like this, waiting for someone else to bet (a standard play w/ monster at micros). Not enough in the pot for this to be a bluff unless villain's a maniac, looks like desperation bet to make up for missed value...although I think I've seen JJ/QQ do this at micros, I don't think weaker aces play it this way.

wow, i'm pretty sure this is actually a fold. i can't imagine you're good here even a third of the time, and you have to be good close to 45% or so to make it a call

considering his raise size preflop and the fact that AQ would be several times more likely to put in a bet somewhere than a boat, etc. it's just ridiculously hard for this to not be a boat/quads, and you have bottom boat

yeah, i'm convinced this is absolutely a fold now. there is no galaxy in our universe where you'll be good here more than 1 in 3 times

i call and i don't think it's particularly close.

villain is an unknown at 10nl and obviously is a horrible player because he's shoving river for like 4-5* pot after two streets have been checked around and the river is blank. this could be any sort of mid Ax hand, could be an idiot with something stupid like KQ or QQ, and could just be a spewtarded bluff. let's face it, whatever hand villain has he's horribly misplayed it, which means we should be assigning him a pretty wide range.

i actually think we're good over half the time here.

I snapcall....
Sure this might be quads/boat a a lot of the time but i think a lot of people are missing the fact that this will be a retard bluff also a lot of the time from a unknow 10nl player.

okay, the chance of him having KQ/QQ/JJ/whatever combined is literally like 1%. seriously, you're really reaching

and to just say "oh well he misplayed it either way" is kind of lame logic, because there's a difference between making the most unfathomably ridiculous bad shove anyone has ever seen, and between just slowplaying way too hard and then panicking and shoving and trying to get called

AQ/AJ is obviously possible even though it'd be quite awful, but thinking it's any more than like 1 in 5 times is really overly optimistic imo

pantin007 said:

can i add some info after the fact :100 or so more hands, he is a nit and he hasnt gotten out of line on any occasion that i have seen

Click to expand...

Ok then its a snap fold from me

pantin, given that you had 15 hands on him at the time, post-hand reads shouldn't really be considered if you want a fully objective analysis.

combu, i think you're overestimating the ability of an unknown 10nl player who has just shoved after two checked streets for 5*pot. if we're playing 50nl+ and he shoves for twice the pot or something, sure, i think your 1% isn't far off the mark, but you're giving him way too much credit here.

given the tone of OPs posts i'm pretty sure he lost the hand though, heh.

even without knowing the other 100 hands, we can use bayesian statistics to solidly posit that when it's his first raise in 15 hands he's probably tight, and virtually guaranteed to not be a maniac

a) he made a small raise pre OOP. 95% of the average player's range for doing this is either a pair or something that hit the board in some way. which leads to:

b) nobody turns made hands into 6x pot bluffs into 4 people when nobody has shown interest, especially on a board like this. it's something you might witness a few times a year even at the small stakes, and laugh for the sheer fact that it's so incredible

so we'd almost entirely be banking on the slightly less retarded AQ/AJ portion of his range, and basically every single thing about the way the hand was played makes them much less likely than boats. i might even call in the moment, but i really do think it's a fold looking at it with plenty of time to mull it over

and chris, i guess i think you're underestimating. the games are more solid everywhere. not as many people are just giving away their $ anymore, even at the micros. and he's already proven himself not to be some maniacal micro-tard by not playing the first 15 hands, so it really defies most of the reasoning for calling imo

nah, he'll probably end up having AQ, whenever i am adamant about something in these things the results poop on me

ill post results tomorrow, i want some more opinions ldo

I agree with combu, i just can't see how our hand can ever be good here, we just doun't beat anything that takes this line except for a,q which is more likely to min bet turn than shove river. This is AA or AK more than anything, and i rarely see it being anything else. I fold, and i don't think it's that close

ez for you to say omaha dude, you fold boats all the time

actually thats a good point, my advice should be taken with a grain of salt since i havn't played holdem for a while, and this is an insta not even close to being close fold in omaha

This is easily a snap call 100% and then a "I ****ING KNEW IT!!!" after he shows his AK.

I call with what I knew then, though if I had the info that he was seriously nitty at the time I'd seriously consider folding.

The way this is played smells very fishy to me. But the bottom line is I have a hard time laying down a boat.

Either he had nothing or........
KK
He raised from the SB got 3 callers
At the flop he's looking at 2 aces and figures one of the three callers has an ace ...... check around
Turn ..... he's got the nuts Now he's hoping someone has an ace.... check around again
river he throws a "I'm stealing this pot" kinda bet to try to get something out of it.

That being said ......... I would have called ..... just to see.
I guess at the turn you could have thrown a bet out there just to see who sticks around.

in hindsight i think i made a good fold but we would never know

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $12.30
BB: $10.25
UTG: $3.95
UTG+1: $5.15
UTG+2: $5.40
MP1: $10
MP2: $4.70
CO: $7.60
Hero (BTN): $9.50

MP1 posts $0.10
Pre-Flop: 6 6 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 folds, MP1 checks, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.40, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30, MP1 folds, CO calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.80) 9 A A (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.80) K (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.80) 6 (4 Players)
SB bets $7.30, 3 folds

Results: $1.80 Pot ($0.15 Rake)
SB mucked and WON $1.65 (+$1.25 NET)

+1 for the good guys