[10NL] Behind more than Ahead?

This spot came up in my session this morning against a typical 14/6 nit. I made it 8x when 3BB +1limper would have been 6x. Not sure it made that much of a difference, but as soon as he flatted PF, I pegged him on set-mining.

Stacks:
MP2 with $6.00
MP3 with $11.00
CO with $10.45
BTN with $5.75
SB with $2.15
BB with $10.65
UTG with $8.15
UTG+1 with $9.85
MP1 with $8.00

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Pokerstars
Dealt to MP3:A♦ A♠
Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
MP1: checks
MP2: checks
2 players fold.
Hero raises $0.70 to $0.80
3 players fold.
BB calls [$0.70]
2 players folded.
Total folds this street: 7
Potsize: $1.85
Flop:
9♠ 7♦ 2♦
BB: checks
Hero bets [$1.50]
2 players fold.
BB raises $1.90 to $3.40

This is almost a min-raise. The only POSSIBLE hand that I beat here is maybe a 1010/JJ. It just seems like this is the textbook scenario of someone showing strength, most likely AA, KK, QQ..and getting the proper odds, getting in there to set-mine. So, what's the best line here? There's also a FD, but I don't see this type of player drawing with this line. Is this 95% of the time 99, 77, 22? Do we just flat and try to get to SD? Shove and pray for 1010, JJ?

Easy shove. You beat a whole lot more hands than TT/JJ, but then you didn't tell us how many hands for his stats either. Without a concrete read, he could have:

Flush draw, TT-KK, and maybe even 77 or 88. Hell, the guy could have 86 or A9 if he's a defender. Way too many draws to flat call, IMO.

Flush draw, TT-KK, and maybe even 77 or 88. Hell, the guy could have 86 or A9 if he's a defender. Way too many draws to flat call, IMO.

Click to expand...

Yes, I should have checked how many hands I had on him. FWIW, I don't really think we can give this type of player KK when he flats my raise PF. Also, these players aren't "defenders", playing weak hands like 86 and A9 OOP for a large raise.

How agressive is villain?

if he's agressive this is a perfect flop to represent a set, but either way im not folding to one reraise with an overpair. Just because he's a nit doesnt mean he's a good nit. there can be alot of underpairs say JJ and below.

depending on his stats im probably flatting here and trying to get to a cheap showdown, folding if he keeps firing oop.

I think the flat call is correct here. However you are now faced with very tough decisions on turn. What do you do if he bets? If you will call that bet, you probably need to reraise all in on the turn. I like the flat call because if I see a non diamond low card I will rerraise all in on the turn. If he hit his set, its probably 99 and I guess I lose big. (Unless I misread what kinds of hands he plays, but you have him as a nit which should put him only calling such a big raise with 99 if he can beat me).