re: Poker & 10NL 6max set w/ bad turn card again...
Originally Posted by dsvw56
The problem with flatting OOP vs. a wide range is :
A) We're OOP, so getting paid off is going to be a bitch and it's going to be hard to pick up the pot or ever get to showdown unimproved.
B) He has a wide range so he's rarely going to flop something that can pay us off.
Small pairs have tons of implied value, but situations like this SEVERELY cripple them.
I agree that these are problems, but A and B are somewhat mutually exclusive. If it's going to be hard to pick up the pot unimproved, it's going to be easy to paid off when we hit our set. Conversely, if we struggle with our implied odds, we can probably re-steal (or more likely, legitimately take down) the pot after the flop.
The way I figure, it comes down to this:
If we 3-bet, one of three things will happen:
1. We take down the pot. Value: 5BBs.
2. We get called and play a bit pot out of position.
3. We get 4-bet and pushed off our hand. Value: -12BBs (or whatever we re-raise to)
#1 is by far the most likely. I don't think anyone wants to be in situation #2, and #3 is probably very rare (~5% of the time?) and sucks hard. 5% of 12BBs is 0.6.
If we guess that he calls with 10% of his hands, repop 5%, and folds 85%, and that it's neutral EV when he calls, the EV of 3-betting becomes
EV = 0.85*5 + 0.05*(-12) + 0.10*0 = 3.65.
If we somewhat pessimistically assume that we have absolutely no equity in the pot if we miss our set, we need to win an average of 31BBs the times we call and hit our set to be on equal footing with 3-betting. While may sound hard, I return to the fact that it's either difficult to steal the pot unimproved or
it's difficult to win money with our set. But it can't be both.