$10NL 6-max: Check/Jam vs. 3-bet monkey?

I've been a bit too sticky in 3-bet pots recently, so this might be total spew, good, or awesome. I couldn't tell which.

Stats on Villain:

28/11/48% over 113
C-bet % = 100%
3-bet % in big blind = 20% (2 out of 10)
3-bet % = 9.5%



Table Marseille (real money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: DaCrusha ( $8.18 USD )
Seat 2: hsc48 ( $2.53 USD )
Seat 4: mingming88 ( $4.51 USD )
Seat 5: spineless90 ( $13.66 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $10.10 USD )
mingming88 posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
spineless90 posts big blind [$0.10 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Hero raises [$0.35 USD]
DaCrusha calls [$0.35 USD]
hsc48 folds
mingming88 folds
spineless90 raises [$1.35 USD]
Hero calls [$1.10 USD]
DaCrusha folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ ]
spineless90 bets [$2.00 USD]
Hero raises [$8.65 USD]

I think this is way too small of a sample to be making moves this big on this guy based on his reads. PF is pretty loose in itself, and shoving the flop means we'll have to get a fold (clicks away at calculator...) at least %63 of the time if my math is right, which I just don't think is true.

If you really think he's just squeezing you, why don't you 4bet bluff preflop?

BelgoSuisse said:

If you really think he's just squeezing you, why don't you 4bet bluff preflop?

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I think I fold more of his range postflop. He'll prolly stack AK/AQ preflop, and my hand plays like dogsh!t AIPF. I hate 4-bet/folding & I'm just not really comfortable getting it in with KQo, when I can call with position.

ChuckTs said:

we'll have to get a fold (clicks away at calculator...) at least %63 of the time if my math is right

Click to expand...

you math is only right if we lose every single time villain calls. Sure enough we'll be serious underdogs when he does, but when he turns over JJ, for instance, with overcards we are still 25% to win the big pot.

If we assume that we have something like 20% equity against his calling range, then we only need him to fold 47% of the time for the shove to be break-even.

If we really want to make this a thorough analysis, we need a range of hands that he squeezes with and then we need to divide this range between hands that he calls our bluff with and hands that we fold. Any suggestions ?

woops, you're completely right Belgo. We're on a semibluff, not a bluff. I guess that's what I get for posting so late.

StoxEV helps a ton in situations like these (plugging numbers away right now), but I'm not exactly sure how to go about this accurately since we have such a small sample size.