100nl; TT vs reg

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

SB ($83.25)
BB ($49.45)
UTG ($137.20)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($36.60)
Hero ($100)
MP3 ($122.55)
CO ($99.20)
Button ($98.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T , T .
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, CO raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero ...

Villain is a 14/8/6 player after around 80 hands and seems to be a reg (I have yet to figure out who's who at 100nl). I've got similar stats.

What's our play and plan for the hand if we continue?

I dont like going up against reg's in these spots. We are not getting odds to set mine, we are extremly vunurable to overcards, and crushed by the overpairs. The pot is going to be big if we call, if we have a safe looking flop and get raised (even by air) then we have to fold ui.

I fold this.

Yeah, I agree. I think I put this down against a decent player. That's a very stiff re-raise.

4-betting him seems very expensive, and its going to be hard to shove almost all of the flops that come out if we're in a pot that large.

Just calling puts us in a precarious situation as well, since there aren't a whole lot of flops we can bet with any degree of safety.

I go with a very reluctant fold.

Against a reg with those stats I'm folding this here as well as others have said.

Plan if we continue? Call and pray for a set even though we don't have odds? Fold if we don't hit it? I dunno there's very few flops I would call a bet with here.

call, if flop has no face bet out 2/3 of pot, fold to any reraise

^^^^ no way can we do that.

Very icky situation to be in.

I dont think 4 betting is the right way to go since the pot could quickly escalate out of control and we find ourselves stacking off to villain.

As for a call, even with position a call is a sketchy move. On a low flop, we have no idea where we stand and could end up losing a lot, on a high flop the hand is over, on a raggy flop we once again have no idea where we stand and could end up stacking off.

Our only hope is to pray for a set without having the odds, if we call. Even if we hit a set there are still many boards we are afraid of, a q,j,t for example. Or a t,a,k. I think any set with to overcards could end up with us stacking off in set over set.

All in all, fold here

Agree with a fold here, but I ended up calling based on set odds (that I didn't have).

Bad calc on my part, but I think folding is pretty standard here, especially OOP.

I call:

Flop: ($29.50) 3 , 4 , 2 (2 players)
Hero ...

There's no possible way you can not expect him to bet, you're only options now are to lead out or give up. He's going to bet regardless of KK or AKs. Given you shouldn't have gone this far it's probably best to give up..

idk man I'm stuck in tourney mode.

Meh tricky, I usually donk bet into him here and give up to any resistance. Lead for $18-$24, fold to a raise. C/F the turn if called UI

Here's a question for you: if we were to ch-c, how frequently would we expect a relatively unknown (<500 hands etc) reg to double barrel AK?

I like betting because it helps us get info for cheap as well as avoid having to call any scary bets, but we lose a lot of value from AK/AQ.

Similarly, I often donk bet with say 77 after set mining (and missing) on a dry board because those are real tough to actually get to showdown with.

I dont think trying to get value from ak/aq is our main priority here. I think the number 1 in this hand is to try and take down a small pot or lose a small pot from now. I say we lead out here, then if we get raised instfold, if we get called, check turn and re evaluate based on villains move on turn

Well I would say play it classic wa/wb and c/c, but with this we are liable to stack by the end due to swelled pot already. This line would completely depend on

ChuckTs said:

how frequently would we expect a relatively unknown (<500 hands etc) reg to double barrel AK?

Click to expand...

and I have very little experience in 100nl so cannot answer this. Neither can I answer what percentage of the time a reg will raise a donk bet with air here, but these are really the two crucial aspects affecting our line imo.

Well it's not the only priority as by ch-c we keep the pot small vs overpairs (ie save money) while still getting value from overcards.

I think our opponent's double barreling frequencies are pretty important here as we should be much more inclined to bet-fold the flop if he's willing to double barrel AK/AQ more often than not since it'll be too hard to call the turn bet UI. I'm just not sure how often I should be expecting a double barrel from a guy with these stats.

That is a good point though, switch. The value of saving money vs overpairs might overshadow the value of extracting value from AK/AQ enough to warrant just ending the hand now. Not sure, myself.

^posted right after you, jt, but I completely agree.

I dont agree with check calling down. Since by doing that we arent going to be keeping the pot small since it is swollen already. If we check here and villain bets 25 for example and we call. We could end up facing an all in from villain as early as the turn. He could be doing this move with an overpair or a,k so once again we would be confused.

What i am trying to say is that by check calling here, we will find ourself in an identical position on the turn, but with more money at risk and already in the pot and may end up committed enough and end up stacking off.

I still think leading out is the only option as you will instantly gain all information if raised or folded to. If called we then reevaluate turn as i stated and probably c-f it

The wa/wb concept dosn't work here. The whole concept is to get value out of worse hands, and lose the minimum to bigger ones, all the time controlling the pot. In 3-bet pots this is much more difficult to do, the reason being is that the bets that we are going to face will be much,much bigger. We are also OOP, where the wa/wb works best in position, overcards also have way more outs than we are looking at with the big pair senario.

Notice Chuck a reg will also have you pegged as an aggressive player that could do this with UI overcards yourself

True that 3-bet pots are tricky to c/c down, but I disagree with this:

tenbob said:

We are also OOP, where the wa/wb works best in position

Click to expand...

Being OOP means that when we show weakness checking before the action gets to the vil we gain tons of value from the hands we are wa of which are much more likely to bet into us.

True, I'm not sure we can easily get to showdown without paying a significant amount here; I still went for a ch-c and decided if I was double barreled UI that I would give up.

How often do you see regs double barrel AK in spots like this though tb?

also,

tenbob said:

Notice Chuck a reg will also have you pegged as an aggressive player that could do this with UI overcards yourself

Click to expand...

Why's this? Not sure what you mean here.

Anyways teh turn:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

SB ($83.25)
BB ($49.45)
UTG ($137.20)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($36.60)
Hero ($100)
MP3 ($122.55)
CO ($99.20)
Button ($98.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T , T .
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, CO raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero calls $10.50.

Flop: ($29.50) 3 , 4 , 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($29.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero ...

A slowplayed overpair is definitely a possibility now, as is AK checking behind (albeit a VERY passive route).

daxter70 said:

standard fold preflop...

Click to expand...

Not funny.


Also, Chuck, I put out a bet here, about 1/2-3/4 pot, fold to any re raise.

On such an uber-rag flop I can see AA checking wanting you to catch up on the turn but QQ/JJ definately have to lead the flop, and maybe KK also so an overpair seems less likely (same goes for 99 if it takes this line). This makes AK more likely and now you have the benefit of being able to control the pot more since a street was checked. Checking again may induce a bet from AK but more likely won't if he's decided to play it passively. Still I think a c/c line is much more appropriate now as leading to protect against AK or the like could conceivably get us into trouble and he'll only hit his outs < 1/7 of the time. Now we can afford to play classic wa/wb I fink.

edit:

royalburrito24 said:

Also, Chuck, I put out a bet here, about 1/2-3/4 pot, fold to any re raise.

Click to expand...

Why?

A check from villain was the last think i accepted. Surely an a,k c bets a raggy flop like that. It looks for all the world like an overpair esp aces checking a wheel draw aswell.

Checking here may look weak again and will induce another check from villain. I dont think we should get too tricky here as we have no clue where we stand. I say we check/call will gain our value from a,k but keep some pot control against over pairs. I think we should check call here and re evaluate river with once again the aim of keeping it cheap rather then getting value.