100nl QQ vs reg on terrible flop

ChuckTs

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Villain is jrockhaf - good reg running at 15.5/11/2.9. Isolates a lot and gets aggro when the tables get short.

He sees me as a 14/10 type player who is smart enough to know about his isolation raises and such...so there's probably multiple level thinking here, not sure how deep it goes.

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $72.85 (72.9 bb)
CO: $60 (60 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $29 (29 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q
spade.gif
Q
club.gif

CO posts BB out of position, MP calls $1, CO checks, BTN raises to $6, SB folds, Hero raises to $20, 2 folds, BTN calls $14

Flop: ($42.50) T
diamond.gif
9
diamond.gif
J
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero ...
 
dsvw56

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Being OOP is sooooo lame.

ummmm, whats his Attempt to Steal?
 
dsvw56

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23% not as high as I thought.

Well then, I'm stumped. I honestly can't think of a line that doesnt absolutely blow. I guess you could take a little unorthodox line and check/call the flop and shove a safe turn maybe?
 
Munchrs

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BA? do you mean way ahead / way behind?
 
Last edited:
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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is check folding an option?
No. We have top pair and an OESD on a flush board. While it ain't pretty it'll have to do.

I certainly like check/calling one street. If it goes check/check and a diamond rolls off, we can just cuss, and hope it checks down. But any non-retarded villain knows this board sucks balls for your hand range.

Turn is where I'm iffy. I like leading a blank one for sure, maybe bet/folding. But its hard to make a bet that doesn't commit us.
 
robwhufc

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Being OOP is sooooo lame.

Is it? Often on a flop like that, the first one into the pot picks it up, and Chuck is the first one into the pot.

I'd bet this one, he's probably not going to be calling unless he's got a big diamond, and chances are he hasn't. That isn't a brilliant flop, but it also isn't the worst youcan have with a pair of Queens.
 
Munchrs

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What about CRAI?

crazy IMO. If we had the Qd then that is definately a very good option but we really are likely to to be dead to any diamond half the time and AK as well whcich makes that a very high varience play.

I think rob said it when he says first one in wins, his line is the one im liking best here.
 
Jagsti

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Bet/fold for me. c/c just leaves us terrible decision on the turn unimproved. Betting here can obv take the pot now, if he shoves over our bet he either already has us beat or has a zillion outs, so we're left with an easyish decision. CRAI to me is like spew as we could be drawing dead (but the way I'm playing atm this is like my optimal line :D). We could hope for chk/chk but that's like never gonna happen.
 
dsvw56

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The problem with leading is that we can't call a raise. And if this guy is any good at all here he knows he can raise a very wide range safely here because of how hard this flop hammers his 3-bet calling range and unless we flopped VERY strong, we can't continue. Leading, while a bet for protection, is essentially turning our hand in to a bluff.
 
robwhufc

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The problem with leading is that we can't call a raise. And if this guy is any good at all here he knows he can raise a very wide range safely here because of how hard this flop hammers his 3-bet calling range and unless we flopped VERY strong, we can't continue.

Good analysis, but taking this level above level above level thinking to it's conclusion, you should now call him, because you have got an overpair to the board which will be ahead of most of his range.

If you are playing against an opponent that will call a reraise preflop then go over the top of a follow on bet because he knows you would be scared of the flop, the best course of action to take would just be to get up and find another table to play on.
 
Jagsti

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But that's the problem with playing oop. Optimal lines oop are really difficult to achieve. We could be totally overthinking this level thinking here, and this could be a simple case of that flops hits his range huge imo.
 
Richyl2008

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Ewww gross spot. I dont think we can check call here without committing ourselves to the pot. By that point we'll have around half our stack in. I think betting kind of commits us too because if we bet say 30 and he shoves, were getting 3 to 1 with an overpair, and he could be shoving with the ace of diamonds. So I think we either need to go with it, or not go with it, I dont think theres much room for in between. SPR is 2 after preflop betting so I would probably go with it and hope he's got something like AK, AQ. If you've seen him flat AA or KK in position to 3bets, then I have no idea what I'd do.
 
tenbob

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Jrockhaf is a very tricky player, and he will float this flop lots here. At the same time I think C/C is weak. It's a bet/fold here for me most of the time, occasionally against this guy i'll CRAI, but more so to mix up my play against a reg.
 
Jagsti

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Good point Richy, about being pot committed with either bet/fold, or chk/call lines. At what point in this hand, with these 2 lines, do we actually become mathematically pot committed? Like if we put in 40-50% of our stack in, regardless of his holding do we have to put the rest of our stack in?

To me, I always think that if I've put in like 40%+, folding is just like spew. Now I've looked at it again, I'm not a fan of folding if I have put this much money , I dont like my bet/fold anymore :D.
 
Richyl2008

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Good point Richy, about being pot committed with either bet/fold, or chk/call lines. At what point in this hand, with these 2 lines, do we actually become mathematically pot committed? Like if we put in 40-50% of our stack in, regardless of his holding do we have to put the rest of our stack in?

There's only 2 more bets that can go in, and we have an overpair with an oesd, so I think if we put one of those bets in were committed to the rest if he shoves, assuming that he does we're probably getting somewhere around 3 to 1 to call the shove.

If he has a 3 bet calling range of 1010+ AK, AQs, he'll have a set sometimes in which case we'll have 10 outs against him with our oesd+2outers, a flush draw occasionally with the Ace or King of diamonds, where we're ahead, a bigger pair AA, KK, we have 10 outs against AA, although if he has the ace of diamonds it's not great. Were really only in really terrible shape against made flushes and KK since it sucks up over half our outs.



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.715% 42.51% 03.21% 18096 1365.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 54.285% 51.08% 03.21% 21744 1365.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
 
dsvw56

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His range is gonna be much wider than that in a steal/re-steal situation like this.
 
Richyl2008

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If hes a good regular what kind of hands will he call with getting only 5 to 1 implied odds? I really don't know this player so you may be right, but I dont see how calling with suited connectors, and small pocket pairs can be profitable in this spot
 
zachvac

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1. Could you please not post the name in searchable form? xxjrockhafxx would work.

2. This is extremely ugly

3. You can probably C/C this flop and fold to a turn barrel. If he bets flop, checks turn, and bets river it would depend on what came and our read. As long as we balance the C/C line with made flushes here, I don't think he can profitably double barrel this. The only problem here is that if we C/C flop, check turn and he checks behind, we would never check the river with a flush, therefore he could shove the river with a wide range and fold out basically everything. Of course if we think he'd do that with his whole range, we could call the river UI, but I don't think we can make that conclusion unless you two have a ton of history.

4. As a second option you could point to the window and yell "LOOK!", and then when they look over take the button and put it in front of you :).
 
dsvw56

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4. As a second option you could point to the window and yell "LOOK!", and then when they look over take the button and put it in front of you :).

Probably your best option, imo

And if that doesnt work, just open fold.
 
C

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Split 50/50 on this one

You could be crushed or close to even money so check fold

You could have the best hand or at least good equity plus he could try to steal so play it strong

I just don't know which i would do
 
Munchrs

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Good point Richy, about being pot committed with either bet/fold, or chk/call lines. At what point in this hand, with these 2 lines, do we actually become mathematically pot committed? Like if we put in 40-50% of our stack in, regardless of his holding do we have to put the rest of our stack in?

To me, I always think that if I've put in like 40%+, folding is just like spew. Now I've looked at it again, I'm not a fan of folding if I have put this much money , I dont like my bet/fold anymore :D.

so if we are pot commited by a bet or call, and villian is likely to float alot as tenbob said then really arnt our only options c/f or CRAI as a bluff. I still dont think our hand has much showdown equity but if we can get him to fold to a CRAI 25-30% of the time and we win the showdown more often that 26% then mathmatically CRAI is a +ev option.

If we think villian folds to a CRAI never then we shouldnt be doing that, and if we c/call or bet the flop we are commiting around half our stack to the pot and would be getting 3:1 on the rest of it which is pretty decent odds to call whcih I think we would be forced to do even if a diamond peels off on the turn.

So why is check/folding not an option? (saying "coz its too nitty" doesnt count)
 
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