100NL QQ vs preflop reraise

A

alan1983

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pokerstars Game #9780627428: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/05/06 - 16:21:20 (ET)
Table 'Capella' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: anarchoi ($100.40 in chips)
Seat 2: StarJake ($102.15 in chips)
Seat 4: supreme20 ($100 in chips)
Seat 6: Zween78 ($19.90 in chips)
Seat 7: LEIT ($52.70 in chips)
Seat 8: T-Money147 ($95.70 in chips)
Seat 9: alan1983 ($82.50 in chips)
StarJake: posts small blind $0.50
supreme20: posts big blind $1
Wasp: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to alan1983 [Qc Qd]
GEOLIVE78 joins the table at seat #3
Zween78: folds
LEIT: folds
T-Money147: folds
alan1983: raises $3 to $4
anarchoi: raises $12 to $16<------- think he has kk or AA but i decide to play for set or maybe he has ak, since hes on button too thought folding was weak.........StarJake: folds
supreme20: folds
alan1983: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Kd Td Jc]<----- Straight draw!
alan1983:.....?
 
calibanboy

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Well, In summary.

a) Your very most likely currently beat. I cannot see a hand you are beating
b) Based on A) Hes not going to go away to any bet by you
c) your drawing to 10 cards ( possibly best guess 8 if you figure he may have aa or KK)

YOu are in a tough spot. What you do next depends on the read of your opponent. However Be prepared to fold this hand soon ......
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Check-fold.

If you put him on AA-KK/AK you are behind everything in his range and drawing to at best 10 outs and at worst 8. If you bet this flop, he will invariably raise with everything in his range, and you will probably be committed to gettting your stack in drawing to 8-10 outs.

Check-call and you're most likely only going to see one more card before being faced with another large bet which you won't have odds to call.

I just dump the Queens here. Given our opponent's range, this isn't actually the great flop it initially appears to be.
 
A

alan1983

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But dont you think this is a pretty bad flop for Aces too?

Three of the 4 big pairs thatd have called him preflop would have hit sets now?
 
hott_estelle

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But dont you think this is a pretty bad flop for Aces too?

Three of the 4 big pairs thatd have called him preflop would have hit sets now?

I had a huge explanatory post, all gone now. So sad. Not going to repost it all, too much work, basically I said, "So what?"

Yea bad flop for AA but worse flop for QQ in your position. You don't know if he has AA, maybe he has KK. Either way, what's the point?? No point in attempting to sell that you have a set here, because YOU DON'T HAVE A SET, and the range you put him on here, puts him on either top set of Ks, or AA, and do you really think he'll fold either here?? Also, you'd need to make a decent size bet into this pot, to represent a set on that board, and well, there's just absolutely no need to commit that much money, into that size of a pot. It's just not worth it.

You're only move here is to check-fold, or to check-call a small bet (if the guy is thick enough to give you enough pot-odds and incentive to stick around).

This is basically a summary of what I had posted before, but have no idea why it disappeared.
 
calibanboy

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But dont you think this is a pretty bad flop for Aces too?

Three of the 4 big pairs thatd have called him preflop would have hit sets now?

I fairly strongly agree with hott_Estelle here. A golden rule of Cash is to win big and lose small. Based on the fact that you are behind in this hand, (and he is unlikely to be "going away" - even to a check raise ) you do not want to get yourself into a position where you lose Big.
 
blankoblanco

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Check-fold.

I just dump the Queens here. Given our opponent's range, this isn't actually the great flop it initially appears to be.

^^^ this. It's a tempting looking flop, but like DM said, once you start looking at your opponent's range, it's really pretty bad news for you. His range is like TT-QQ AQ-AK the vast majority of the time. Without plugging it in and doing the math, I'm guesstimating you have about 25-30% equity against his range. However it gets even worse because he has position and you might only get to see a turn card before you're priced out.

The open-ended draw would be nice in the case of it being a bonus, with a chance of your QQ already being the best hand. However, it's often your only outs, and since so many of his holdings made trips on this flop, he'll often have lots of redraws even when you hit.

Just check-fold 'er.
 
J

joeeagles

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The worst part of this hand is villain having position on you, because with the range you put him on this is not a terrible flop for you. As already pointed out by DM, you must be very careful here because if you come out betting or trying a check/raise you risk being pot committed or folding very expensively. You don't want that, so the only thing you can do here is check and then make a decision whether to call or not based on how much he bets.

Don't give yourself too much implied odds here either, because if you stick around and make your hand I doubt you'll make much out of it. The board is very heavy on draws, if he bets enough to give you bad odds (which I think he will) you should fold this.

Your outs here are only 8, you don't have 10 because a Q loses with the range you put your opponent on (AA, KK, AK). You have 10 if he has JJ or TT (both possible because at times players reraise with those hands for information, particularly JJ, and then fold to another reraise). But just consider 8 outs when you figure your odds.
 
ThaRight1Plyr

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man this is a hard hand, because i am an aggressive player so aggressive that i would of rasied your 4$ bet with 79 suited to simulate play and too confuse the crap out of you. my opinion the only mistake you made that i can see is not reraiseing with your queens. reraising with the queens would of told you just how strong his hand was. you had 82$ he had 100$ he could afford a bluff. please take no offense these are just my observations the message board was kinda goin one way on the topic i just want ed to throw in another idea.
 
A

alan1983

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tharightplyr of course theres no offense dude why would there be! :)

Anyway consensus seems to be to not make a move here, and i agree its best here. I felt at the time i could take a stab at it.

As for how it ended, I checked, he bet 25$, i raised him all-in. He did think for a few seconds (which made me think it just might work) then called :( with aces. but i sucked out on the turn with a 9 :D But my aim was to represent a set with the check raise. I think though that even though i think he definitely put me on one, the pot was too big by then and i shouldnt have expected him to fold.
 
J

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Your plan could have worked (I'm refering to him folding) because with AA you don't necessarily have to feel like you're ahead here. From his point of view you had the only PP he actually was ahead of, besides AK, since you called his reraise to $16 PF. Looking at it that way this was a risky call for him, just as risky as your move was, but I guess he felt pot committed, he had to put $41 in a $125 pot to call you, there was always a chance you were on a draw, and he had 6 outs if he was behind.

Glad it worked out in the end for you, Alan, but don't make too many risky moves like this in the future lol.
 
A

alan1983

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Yeah joe youre right.

Thing is, say you were gonna make that move. Would you chose to check raise or lead out?

Im thinking any lead out would have to be allin cause hes calling anything else or raising it allin himself.

And even if i lead out allin, that just looks weird and draw-ish, and likely to get called too.

If i check raise thats a lot of strength i think, but problem is i let him make a big bet and commit himself.

Both equally bad?
 
J

joeeagles

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Yes buddy, both equally bad lol.

Problem is you know you're not beating anything here and most of all you don't know how strong he really is. Actually, AA was the best case for you, anything else is a set and he's not going anywhere no matter what you do. Between the 2 bads you took the least bad though lol, since a check/raise looks much more powerful and should scare him if he has AA, but it was too late, pot was too big anymore so he called.

I'm sure that, like all of us, you've been sucked out your fair share in the past, so at least you got some back lol. I'm glad for you. A nice double up that probably tilted him too.
 
ThaRight1Plyr

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wow AA i was just trying to come up with another scenario mayb over aggressive player, very nice end to the story and its great that the river payed off for you. (like Doyle always says, its not over till its over) you had alot invested with a nice pot, you had to call there i would have went down swingin too great story..........congradulations
 
blankoblanco

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Really late edit: screwed up on my post, meant to say TT-AA, inadvertently put QQ probably because that was your hand.

Anyway, nice result for you.
 
B

bocasas

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bet half the pot, if he re raised then i´d fold, if he calls then my next move will be check.
 
calibanboy

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bet half the pot, if he re raised then i´d fold, if he calls then my next move will be check.

Why are you doing this? Please explain the rationale.

I see none. Every hand you put him on has you beat. 1/2 pot will not scare him away for any of the hands you put him on.

Why build the pot when behind and drawing slim?
 
loopmeister

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I ran the numbers, and there's actually nothing in his range that you were better than ~25/75 underdog to win. This may sound low, but actually your 8-10 outs are playing against plenty outs for villian as well.

So DM et al are 100% right with the check-fold strategy. The 2nd-best move is a lead-push, since it gives you the most fold-equity. Anything else, and the money is going in, with you behind and chasing crappy odds.

I'll admit though, at the table, with 20seconds to make a decision, I probably would have done something silly a fair percentage of the time.
 
loopmeister

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BTW, great thread everyone. One of the most instructive (for me at least) I've read in some time.

Thanks.
 
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