Originally Posted by ChuckTs
What hands that we beat are calling a raise on a 4-flush board here?
Heh, I'm assuming you're typing this because you're saying that KQ or a jack of diamonds isn't calling a raise on the river. But if we offer them good pot odds
, wouldn't they be likely to make a crying call ~25% of the time? Its a perfect board to bluff on, and our villain could be making this move with KJ or something hoping that his bet will prevent us from bluffing this river. Or maybe since he's holding the jack of diamonds, he's afraid we won't be able to call a bet that's any bigger than 12$ since the 4 flush is out there.
And while I get your point, I just don't feel like we're up against the ace of diamonds, or TT/88 here. That is such a small river bet. Its either blocking in nature, or is actually what villain values his weaker hand at. Thus, I'd consider a raise looking for a crying call. Wouldn't you bet more along the lines of half the pot with the ace high flush or a full house?
Like I said in my previous post, I'm definitely far from certain that I'd raise.
Originally Posted by C9
But a min-raise here is barely +EV if it is +EV at all.
I just think its just slightly +EV enough to warrant this move. People get attached to hands by the river, and they'll often make calls they shouldn't make. Maybe this isn't true at 100$ NL. But the way the hand was played, we're assuming villain is bad enough to limp with KJ, maybe he's bad enough to make a call like this on the river.
I agree, that if all of this play was taken in a vacuum, the standard play would be to call. If we were up against an opponent we had a better read on, the play would be to call unless we know he's bad.
But this villain is playing without a full stack, he's unknown, his river bet looks like a blocking bet, and there are many more combinations of hands that we beat than there are AdJd, TT, and 88.