[100NL FR] Triple barreling fun

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Villain is the main reason i'm sitting at the table. He's 40/5/3 with WTSD at 22% but over a relatively small sample.

Not revealing whether he called of folded, do you like the 3 barrels here?

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+2: $104.65 (104.7 bb)
MP1: $17.50 (17.5 bb)
MP2: $21 (21 bb)
MP3: $118.25 (118.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $114.80 (114.8 bb)
SB: $312.90 (312.9 bb)
BB: $132.45 (132.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 8
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9
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3 folds, MP3 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BTN folds, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($11.50) 7
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J
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6
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(3 players)
SB bets $4, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $14, SB calls $10

Turn: ($39.50) 3
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, SB calls $26

River: ($91.50) K
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $56.50 and is all-in


 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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river bet is not very big.. not really sure how often this gets a player this bad off 88-TT. once you get there that way, it's probably marginal either way and i don't mind it. my problems are on the previous streets

i'd just call flop. why are you trying to bluff a 40/5 when you can just take your mound of sklansky bucks calling? if he folds to the flop raise it almost always means your 8s and 9s were good as outs any way, meaning that even in the best case scenario where he folds, you were in pretty damn good shape just calling. while the worse scenarios suck because you're building a pot with no hand vs. a guy who has at least a pair and hates folding

check behind turn also. all your outs are well concealed, the turn didn't change much for him. also, he raised preflop, so the "5" part of his 40/5 is kind of important.. you can't exactly put a draw ala what you have, because he most likely doesn't raise that pre. i'd expect he has a pair, and he's not folding it on the turn. and river stacks set up crappy for a 3rd barrel. no need to get fancy vs. a fish
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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also, he raised preflop, so the "5" part of his 40/5 is kind of important..

he did not. MP3 raised preflop, then folded on the flop. SB flatted pre and donked flop.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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oh woops. well tbh that makes it more likely he has a pair and less likely he's making a really weak c-bet with AK/AQ. makes the flop raise worse imo. i'm expecting him to fold flop never, which wouldn't be terrible except i'm just not going to bother trying to set up a multi-street bluff like this against someone this bad

i'd still check behind turn for reasoning i've pretty much gone through, the fact that he didn't raise doesn't change it a ton.

probably makes the river bluff better though, so once you get there that way i think it's fine

edit: oh well if FP theorem says it! you should most of the time, but i think its clear that "always" is off the mark. i think it's a pretty easy check here. obviously you have enough equity to where it can never be a huge mistake to bet, but i still think it's a mistake. the dude is almost never folding and stacks set up bad for river, your outs are as concealed as they could possibly be. everything is in favor of a check. i don't get it, is everyone so caught up in these black and white theorems that they don't bother with reasoning?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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i'd just call flop. why are you trying to bluff a 40/5 when you can just take your mound of sklansky bucks calling?

well, i was going to defend that play, but then i just went back to my HH database and filtered for suited connectors from 54s to JTs and it shows the following graph.

Probably playing those too aggressively... :eek:
 

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blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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it's not that there aren't a lot of spots to play draws aggressively, but of all spots to do so, i don't know why you chose to do it against a 40/5 who has suggested they have some piece by donking multiway. bottom line is you've gotten yourself into a spot where you're triple-barreling a player who you don't really have reads on but you know is very bad and connected with flop in some way. i don't think that's a good idea
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Yes, got your point.

I do need to work on how i play the suited connectors in general, though. The above graph is over 15k hands at 100nl, so if i just folded every suited connector instead of playing them like i do now, i'd add over 1BB/100 to my win rate. It's a bit ridiculous...
 
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