100NL FR: triple-barrel on paired 3flush board

blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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omg i've almost cleared this stars bonus. villain is 28/9, 40% fold to cbet, 20% WTSD over ~100 hands

he calls flop quickly and calls turn almost as fast

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (MP1): $106.30 (106.3 bb)
MP2: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
MP3: $162.55 (162.6 bb)
CO: $165.60 (165.6 bb)
BTN: $111.20 (111.2 bb)
SB: $106.15 (106.2 bb)
BB: $20 (20 bb)
UTG+1: $124.60 (124.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with T
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A
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UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) K
club.gif
3
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K
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(2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($19.50) 5
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

River: ($47.50) 8
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(2 players)
Hero bets $32
 
SusieP

SusieP

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im not sure what the question but i would have put him on either a3 on the flop or a flush draw. either way i would not have seen a reason to bluff specifically but i wasnt there so to each his own. but he would probably call to the river with a 3 if you have been playing loose.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If villain was good, I'd like the fact that he snap called better. Plus, I think if you're going to bluff this board, you need to fire all 3, as most villains will call 2 streets, but then give you credit for a king on the last one.

The river card is just such a total blank, and I think I'd like a bigger bet there on the river. I think this is sorta bad with the player being loose, plus the board not really co-operating. Its probably thin, and high variance if it is good. But I certainly don't think its spew. I think I'd like firing 2 a lot less.

Plus we have non-negligable showdown value with ace high as well. Do you have an aggression frequency or factor number?
 
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Jagsti

Jagsti

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I give up on this river I think. Villain is a calling station and the board is not super scary, so he's calling you down with most pp's I suspect. The only stat
that makes interesting readin is that his wtsd is quite low, so I can undestand the urge to t/barrel. But the sample is still quite small so not sure that its totally relevent. Given the board I think it's a chk on the river.
 
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tenbob

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Im a bit of a nit when it comes to these spots as well, I check the river as well. I dont think its spew either by the way, the triple barrel here looks so much like a king that he may give up on the river. Turn call might be something as simple as picking up a backdoor flush draw, to go with a hand like A3s, we can usually expect a king to raise.

WTSD stat is interesting here though, it is very very low, and triple barrling can likely show a nice profit in the long term against this guy.
 
B

bw07507

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I've noticed that passive fish in this spot won't raise a K on the turn a lot of the time because of the flush on the board and sometimes won't even raise the flush because they are scared of the boat. Can't count the number of times recently that I've 3barreled trips on a 3 flush board and got flat called on the flop with a flush draw and flatted on the turn and river with the flush.

I don't think you're folding out much here with the 3rd barrel. Maybe a picked up backdoor flush draw but thats about it.
 
blankoblanco

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fwiw based on flop timing i was 95% sure he didn't have a K or boat. he's peeling flops pretty light, especially this one imo. based on turn timing i was pretty sure about him not having a flush as well, although not quite as confident
 
ChuckTs

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I don't like banking my decisions on timing tells too much. In general when I'm barreling, I have to represent a whole lot more than a flush or trips as people just don't believe me. I'm obv much more inclined to bet a Q/J turn than a blank club.

His wtsd is enticingly low; I don't hate it, but I've run tons of triple barrels on bad boards like this and in my experience they just don't fold often enough.
 
c9h13no3

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I still think the WTSD stat is pretty useless here after 100 hands. I'd rather see aggression factor, which might actually converge after 100.

And I agree with combuboom that fast calls are hands that see the flop, and plan to call bets. So they either plan on slow playing, or they just don't believe your c-bets. I think I either c-bet this flop, and then try to check the hand down, or fire 3.

If we c-bet once for like 75% of the pot, villain will probably fold close enough to be almost profitable. Then the other times we check down ace high & win, or improve to a pair of T's or A's and win should give us enough value to be profitable. I think firing 2 & shutting down is pretty bad, as players are really willing to call another turn bet with 44-99. If say a Q/J hit the turn, I'd like firing 2 and quitting more.
 
blankoblanco

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okay so i looked and his aggression factor = 2.33

i kinda felt like the turn bet was pretty necessary, just because his fold to c-bet is so low and i think he'll be calling all sorts of A highs on this board. while i do beat a lot of those A highs, i think nowadays most players who aren't super passive postflop are going to fire this turn when checked to a ton if they don't have a pair, and pretty often they'll fire it regardless of if they do or their SD value
 
WVHillbilly

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okay so i looked and his aggression factor = 2.33

i kinda felt like the turn bet was pretty necessary, just because his fold to c-bet is so low and i think he'll be calling all sorts of A highs on this board. while i do beat a lot of those A highs, i think nowadays most players who aren't super passive postflop are going to fire this turn when checked to a ton if they don't have a pair, and pretty often they'll fire it regardless of if they do or their SD value

If you're sure he'll bet the turn if checked to, I think a turn ch/r bluff carries a ton more weight than barreling here because of the implied river bet. It also cost you about the same as firing 3 streets and if it called/3bet he wasn't folding the river anyway.

If you're going to bet all three I think your river bet needs to be a little bigger (~$40).
 
blankoblanco

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i thought someone might suggest that. was going to preemptively say this, but didnt feel like typing more =P

c/r is definitely worth consideration. thing is if i c/r and he calls i'll have no idea where the hell i am because he can call with the bare Ac, certainly Ac2, Ac3, Ac4, and Ac5, and possibly some pairs + club that wouldn't call a river bet once it comes no club. so once he calls i either lose pots checking where i otherwise could have pushed him off a missed FD on the end (probably what i'd do), or i end up spewing a whole stack to him when he has a made hand that won't fold. plus i didn't really gain confidence that he didnt have a flush until his timing on the turn call. it still would be fun though and maybe +EV

also i wouldn't change the river bet size. it's plenty to get him off hands that were looking for a club, nearly as effective as a larger bet vs. small pairs (sometimes more so? depends on the player), i rep a wider range of strong hands this way. $40 looks pretty bluffy iyam
 
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BelgoSuisse

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In a spot like this, i actually cbet flop a bit lower, closer to half pot, and then cbet turn a little bigger, closer to pot. I think it represents a K better and gets sufficiently more folds to compensate for the worse bluffing odds.

As played i'm not super fond of a third barrel. It assumes both that there's plenty of pairs or better Aces still in his range AND that he'll fold them to a third barrel. You think that's the case based on timing tells and that's not something i like to rely on, tbh. Anyway, it's possible, and i don't think there's a huge EV difference between giving up and firing the third.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Another way to look at the hand is just to give up on flop. With a villain who looks a lot like a station on your left, it's a good exploitative strategy to give up all marginal hands and valuetown TPTK and better.

Multi-barreling may be +EV too, but it's a lot more tricky to handle properly and higher variance.
 
V

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If we were in position, I'd definitely check behind on the river. I figure there are two possibilities. If he has a pair or better, he's calling the river a huge percent of the time. He thought it was good on the turn, so it would require a big change of opinion based on your river bet to get him to fold. On the other hand, he may have called the flop with ace high or an attempt at a float and picked up a flush draw on the turn and decided to see the river. In this case, your AT has decent showdown value. Either way, the best answer is to check.

However, we're out of position, so it's much trickier. You might risk checking and hope he doesn't try to bluff you with a weaker high card. If you're going to bet, I don't think it has to be a very big bet. You're trying to block him from bluffing and fold out unimproved draws that are better high cards. That shouldn't take a big bet to do. So then when he does call you with a better hand, you lose less.

It may be the case that he has a pair he's not too confident in, but he called the turn only because he picked up a flush draw. In that case, betting is far better than checking, but I still don't think it has to be a big bet. I'd try to make it look like a value bet with AA, QQ, or JJ.

So I think I'm slightly leaning towards a small to medium sized value bet, but checking out is pretty close behind.
 
blankoblanco

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Another way to look at the hand is just to give up on flop. With a villain who looks a lot like a station on your left, it's a good exploitative strategy to give up all marginal hands and valuetown TPTK and better.

Multi-barreling may be +EV too, but it's a lot more tricky to handle properly and higher variance.

yeah i totally agree with this. vs. an opponent like this on a paired flop where you know you're getting peeled a ton, i think you're often in a spot where you either need to check and give up, or be willing to fire multiple barrels so long as the board doesn't go to hell. i easily could have checked flop, and sometimes will. suppose it's worth nothing that i had a tight image and hadn't run any big bluffs

If we were in position, I'd definitely check behind on the river. I figure there are two possibilities. If he has a pair or better, he's calling the river a huge percent of the time. He thought it was good on the turn, so it would require a big change of opinion based on your river bet to get him to fold.

but you're neglecting that a lot of his pocket pairs have a club draw to go with it and the bonus that a club can ship it to them influences them to call and see what i do on the river.

also i think you guys are generally overestimating how much a typical bad-ish, loose-but-not-absurdly-so player is calling 3 barrels with a small pair of some sort. if it were that easy to get 3 barrels called on scary boards by small pairs against any not-so-good player, i think all of our win rates would be a lot higher. the games just aren't that easy these days. even the players who aren't technically sound can find folds when you show tons of strength. so while he's calling the river with his pairs a decent chunk of the time, i guess i just don't agree with the sentiment that it's going to be a huge percentage

It may be the case that he has a pair he's not too confident in, but he called the turn only because he picked up a flush draw. In that case, betting is far better than checking, but I still don't think it has to be a big bet. I'd try to make it look like a value bet with AA, QQ, or JJ.

So I think I'm slightly leaning towards a small to medium sized value bet, but checking out is pretty close behind.

yeah, this is mostly why i disagree with the larger bet suggested by others. and in fact i was thinking i could have possibly even made it smaller. but overall i feel it's a good balanced amount. even though a smaller bet would fold out all whiffed no pair hands, i felt this amount gave me decent bang for my buck at folding pocket pairs as well. i represent the most hands this way, including AA and maybe QQ/JJ, not limiting myself to trips +. i think even bad players sort of intuitively pick up on the fact that big pot bets on a board this scary often polarizes your range, even though they might not know what those words mean
 
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