[100nl FR] Top set...

....on monotone board. Villain is unknown, 31/2/1 over 38 hands.

Does his stats dictate my play here?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $106.60
BTN: $146.90
SB: $98.30
BB: $18.80
UTG: $34.40
UTG+1: $134.90
UTG+2: $164.15
MP1: $140.75
MP2: $102.60

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $5, MP1 calls $5

Flop: ($19.50) T A 3 (3 Players)
UTG+1 bets $6, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $23, UTG+1 raises to $50, Hero?

I think I stack off with this. You have 7 outs on turn and another 3 outs on the river if the turn doesn't hit. You can very easily be set over set here as UTG+1 would play TT this way but most likely are facing KhQh, KhJh, QhJh and maybe 8h9h. But then again I sometimes over play these expecting to come from behind

His aggression stats say that he probably has the flush but 33/TT play it the same as do the Kh, Qh. I push and pray.

Jagsti said:

Does his stats dictate my play here?

Click to expand...

Not in my opinion, the cards and the betting history are the important clues. You've got the best hand apart from 2 hearts. You raised 6xBB. Opponent called with 3 players still to act (didn't reraise). What hand with 2 hearts would do this? Players love their Ax suited, but this isn't Ax cos the Ace is on the flop. KQ, QJ, J10? Possibilities perhaps. Lower suited connectors? Well they would have large implied odds, so another possibility.

What else could he have? 10 10 would fit. More likely IMO is AK or A 10. AK where the King is a heart is in a very strong position here, Top Pair Top icker with nut flush draw. I think the 2nd group is more likely, and with your 7 outs (+3 more on river) i'd be putting it all in. Flopping top set against top flush would be a major cooler.

at this point if he turned over Kh9h face up, shoving would be close in EV to folding. so that ought to answer your question

I don't see how you can fold this at all. 35% to improve to a boat and TT, 33 and probably AT are making this play as well as a made flush obviously. Opponent might even have, as said before, TPTK and nutflush draw (or maybe the Qh/Jh), seeing as they limp everything and raise nothing.

You have to risk the $77 you have behind to potentially win ~$142, so you are basically getting pot odds even if he does have the made flush. This will be set over set or top 2 pair enough to make this +EV imo + how could you fold top set here knowing you might have him absolutely dominated and even if you don't you are almost getting odds to call.

Thing is, there is almost no way at all that villain can put you on a made flush. KhQh is probably the only hand you could have that would make you a flush, and you are much more likely to have an A, so im sure that villain is extremely confident that 2 pair/set is the top hand.

combuboom said:

at this point if he turned over Kh9h face up, shoving would be close in EV to folding. so that ought to answer your question

Click to expand...

+1

With all the money that's already in the pot, folding is pretty much a disaster if there's any chance he has hand you beat. Against a range that includes TT,22,AT, and a couple of made flushes, you're crushing him with like 65-75% equity.

pwn his face and shove

Worst case scenario:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4793125
pokenum -h ad as - kh qh -- th ah 3h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ah Th 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 331 33.43 659 66.57 0 0.00 0.334
Kh Qh 659 66.57 331 33.43 0 0.00 0.666

Vs his range (31% of hands)
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
269,280 games 0.046 secs 5,853,913 games/sec
Board: Ah Th 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.775% 82.30% 01.48% 221606 3982.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 16.225% 14.75% 01.48% 39709 3982.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

He could have a KhQx or KhJx and make this move. Or 33 or A10 even.

I like shoving here. There is no way I'm folding top set here even if I'm behind.

$93 in pot with about $77 behind, you're betting $77 to win $143 (calling the $27 raise and if villain calls for the rest) so you're getting almost 2:1 there alone.

What are we hoping to achieve when we raise the flop the first time?

1. Our equity is going to either skyrocket or plummet on the turn.
2. We're in position and can control the betting.
3. Making it expensive for him to draw might sound like a convincing statement but is a pseudo-argument. We should look at EV, not talking points.

I'm not trying to say that calling is a vastly superior option to raising, but it seems to me like a lot of you don't even consider it an option.

By the time he 3-bets us, we're committed anyway and might as well get the rest of the chips in now, this I agree with. I'm questioning if we necessarily have to get ourselves into that situation to begin with.

F Paulsson said:

What are we hoping to achieve when we raise the flop the first time?

1. Our equity is going to either skyrocket or plummet on the turn.
2. We're in position and can control the betting.
3. Making it expensive for him to draw might sound like a convincing statement but is a pseudo-argument. We should look at EV, not talking points.

I'm not trying to say that calling is a vastly superior option to raising, but it seems to me like a lot of you don't even consider it an option.

By the time he 3-bets us, we're committed anyway and might as well get the rest of the chips in now, this I agree with. I'm questioning if we necessarily have to get ourselves into that situation to begin with.

Click to expand...

FP, I agree with point 1, especially when villains are drawing to a hand, playing my strong hands a little slower and hoping for a blank turn reduces their equity a lot. Making it an easy decision on the turn.


FP, why would we just call the flop bet, what are going to achieve if he's drawing to flush/straights by just calling the flop?

If he's just drawing, we can make a good decision on the turn. Giving up in a small pot when there's four to a flush and our opponent makes a pot-sized bet on the turn is not a major decision. If the turn bricks and he leads into us, we can charge a very good price for him calling.

That said, against a passive opponent (which seems to be what we have here) raising is probably the better play. When a passive player leads out, he's not bluffing very often which means that he either has a hand that's close to drawing dead, or he has us crushed.

Using some very leet PokerStove tricks (HAX!), it seems there are about 10-15 combos of hands that he flopped a flush with, if we give him the somewhat wide range of 25%. Let's say 12.

Flush: 12 combos,
Sets: 6 combos,
Two pair: AT(3), A3 (3).

Against a flush, we're 33% to win. Against TT, we're 93%. We lose a smidgen of value by raising from preventing him from bluffing the turn, but that's vastly overshadowed by the fact that he's not folding anything in his range when we raise the flop.

The reason I bring up the initial flop raise is because I think that's the more interesting decision in the hand.