[100NL FR] Top 2 vs an Aggro donk deepish

At this table I've been ~18/15/2.5 but I doubt that villain has noticed this
Villain is 48/16/2.5 and i have seen him pull off a bluff and show it after he shoved a river bet with air.

I really dont think this bet is a made flush since he probably ch/raises or bets much smaller. Any thoughts on the hand?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $167.90 (167.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $134.10 (134.1 bb)
BTN: $20 (20 bb)
SB: $19 (19 bb)
BB: $95 (95 bb)
MP1: $120.30 (120.3 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J K
2 folds, MP3 calls $1, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) K 8 J (2 players)
MP3 bets $5, Hero raises to $18, MP3 calls $13

Turn: ($46.50) 5 (2 players)
MP3 bets $40, Hero ?

Key points:

1) Against a super donk, I raise this to $5-6 preflop. They will call with worse quite often, and our hand works better with a smaller SPR.

2) I think you kinda deceived yourself into thinking raising 5 to 18 on the flop is large. However, a potsized is to $25.50 to go. Because he only bet half pot, your raise needs to be about 5x his original bet to be pot-sized. I probably pump this to $30 however, since he's an idiot, and will call.

3) I think we're in shove/fold territory on the turn, since you'll be left with ~70ish behind on the river in a $120 pot (making whatever he bets an auto-call). If your read is that he doesn't have a made flush, then jamming is the only real course of action on the turn IMO.

Nothing else on this one? I'll give it one more day b4 i post what i did.

bw07507 said:

Nothing else on this one? I'll give it one more day b4 i post what i did.

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I guess your $10K in 7 months could be intimidating to some.

I think the PF raise was fine.

When he bets out $5 on the flop, I think you need to protect your 2 pair with such a drawy board. His bet makes the pot $15.50. I think you need to bet about double the pot for $30. It would be $25 to him into a $45 pot. If he chases the flush with an Ace, he's still mistaken by calling for less than 2-1 for the next card.

That turn is a conundrum. His bet is near pot-sized. Was his $5 flop bet a probe with a weak King, a flush draw, or pot control with something else like 2nd pair? His AF is same as yours. So would he value bet a made flush here or slowplay it? Or is he just repping the flush and he thinks you are good enough to fold to his bet?

I'd say his turn bet is too much for value. I put him on just the Ad or Kd and he needs the last card. His near-pot bet was designed to scare you off the hand for as little as possible. Shove here and he either folds or takes bad odds on the FD. Shove is the best play, me thinks.

Like others, I say shove the turn.

You might even get a weak flush to fold...

I think your two pair are good at the river. However, in my mind, and this is where I always get in trouble, do you shove - and then he calls and with another diamond on the river I think you are beat. Or do you call this then re-evaluate on the river. As played I would probably shove. He could be doing this with AK type hands, or even AJ, just trying to steal the pot.

I'd be inclined to call turn and call any non diamond river.

Shoving doesn't make much sense vs a guy who has shown he will bluff with air, since we just shut out that portion of his range. I don't think villain is limp calling with KQ/AK here ever from HJ, so i doubt we can stack any Ks here on the turn by shoving other than K8 or K5. And if he has 2 pair it is all going in on the river anyways.

It just makes no sense to shove a turn in position because you are scared of the 4 to a flush hitting on the river when you shut out alot of villain's range that you beat by doing so. It would take alot of balls for villain to shove a 4 to a flush OOP on this board without a diamond anyways (since you could easily have the Ad/Kd etc and it make perfect sense with your line), so you'll probably get a free showdown most of the time a 4 to a flush does hit (when villain has no flush).

feitr said:

you'll probably get a free showdown most of the time a 4 to a flush does hit (when villain has no flush).

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If you think a player that is going to bluff with air is going to quit bluffing when 4 to a flush hit the board, you're surely on crack.

Additionally, if he has a diamond, he may be semi-bluffing here, and may have enough equity to call a shove. Yes, we do lose some value when he 3-barrels the river with air, but it takes a special kind of villain to do that (fire 3 barrels with little to no fold equity on the river) and I think it will happen rarely enough to make shoving way more profitable. Not to mention that if he does bluff with air, he will probably stack off with any king, or aces here.

It is possible, but a 4 to a flush board is not easy to bluff from OOP in this spot when hero could easily have the nuts/2nd/3rd nuts and never fold. Anyways, if we think alot of villain's range here is air raising the turn is just dumb, because 4/5 times river is bricking off and we lose a potential river bluff. Overall tho it depends on how light villain is willing to get it in. If villain is a fish that isn't even folding KT here then yea shove turn all day, but typically vs a bluffy player who isn't going to spew in all in pots then shoving here makes no sense.

The only time we lose value by not jamming the turn is if villain has 2 pair and the river comes a diamond. There really isn't much you are hoping for here by shoving turn, unless villain has a hand like KdT or 2 pair or is willing to get it in light, but by shoving turn you block out all the bluffs and are basically only called by some sort of combo draw/2 pair or hands that crush you.

c9h13no3 said:

If you think a player that is going to bluff with air is going to quit bluffing when 4 to a flush hit the board, you're surely on crack.

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I think "I will have to disagree with you about that" would have been a better response. A lot less abrasive and harsh. We are trying to encourage more people to post hands and opinions in the HA section, not scare them off. Feitr might not even mind this, but it still doesn't look the nicest to new members who read this and think it is the status quo.

MrSticker said:

I think "I will have to disagree with you about that" would have been a better response. A lot less abrasive and harsh. We are trying to encourage more people to post hands and opinions in the HA section, not scare them off. Feitr might not even mind this, but it still doesn't look the nicest to new members who read this and think it is the status quo.

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Dammit, I went to check this thread thinking you actually added something useful to the discussion :|

And feitr is arguing that shoving in our last 70ish bucks will only shut out hands we beat. But keep in mind our shove offers villain ~3:1. At that point, he's pretty much committed if he's got AK/KQ. And bluffy/spewy villains *will* stack off with crap like AK & play it like its the nuts.

c9h13no3 said:

Dammit, I went to check this thread thinking you actually added something useful to the discussion :|

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Dammit, I went to check this thread thinking you would actually apologize for being too harsh.

bw07057 said:

Nothing else on this one? I'll give it one more day b4 i post what i did.

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Gee BW. Sorry you aren't getting enough responses here. It might be because some people are afraid their opinion is going to get harshly criticized including some "crack" reference by certain people. But gee, I could be wrong.

And feitr is arguing that shoving in our last 70ish bucks will only shut out hands we beat. But keep in mind our shove offers villain ~3:1. At that point, he's pretty much committed if he's got AK/KQ. And bluffy/spewy villains *will* stack off with crap like AK & play it like its the nuts.

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I already explained that villain isn't going to show up with AK/KQ here because a 16pfr doesn't limp call with those hands from HJ. If villain had opened preflop then i'd have no problem getting this in on the turn. I don't disagree with shoving the turn if villain will stack off somewhat light, but the OP doesn't specify anything of that nature other than villain is willing to bluff the river. It also makes absolutely 0 sense for villain to turn a weak K here into what is basically a bluff, unless he has Kd. If villain isn't necessarily willing to stack off light being deep, and is willing to bluff river then trying to protect our hand against a 4 to a flush board hitting on the river probably isn't the best line.

And i don't really see the point of responding to a post about you posting sarcastically with sarcasm. None of the regulars here play at a level where they have any reasonable "right" to be arrogant about their poker skill. If you want a forum where good players like to act like dicks then

[x] 2+2 is your place.

feitr said:

I already explained that villain isn't going to show up with AK/KQ here because a 16pfr doesn't limp call with those hands from HJ.

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Good point.

It also makes absolutely 0 sense for villain to turn a weak K here into what is basically a bluff, unless he has a diamond.

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It also probably didn't make sense to jam the river with air in the previous hand, but players do it. 48/16's usually aren't out to play brilliant poker. They just do stuff, without a whole lot of reason why.

I agree that the flush will only hit ~20% of the time, but when it does it really increases our chances of making a 70$ mistake. Are we planning on calling his river bet when the last flush card arrives?

And if you guys are seriously having your feelings hurt by my comments, I can give you a hug? Take it up in PM's if you have a problem with me, but don't go crapping up BW's thread just because you're worried people might take "smoking crack" all sensitive & be afraid to post their opinions here.

Plus you have to admit, a 4-flush board is a bluffer's paradise, especially this kind of player. They're not thinking about your range, they're thinking "holy crap, that board is scary, its unlikely for him to have a diamond, I'm betting!"

c9h13no3 said:

Take it up in PM's if you have a problem with me, but don't go crapping up BW's thread just because you're worried people might take "smoking crack" all sensitive & be afraid to post their opinions here.

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Hypocrite!! It's OK for you to "crap up" BW's thread with your childish insults but not OK for someone to call you on it? You sent me a 2-word PM and then came back here to keep it going. You call that "taking it up in PM's"? LMAO!!!

Just stay on the subject and off your insults and you'll be fine.

EDIT: Kinda harsh. Sorry.

All comes down to how much of villain's range do we think are bluffs, how much are marginal made hands (KT for ex.), how much are good hands we beat (K8 and K5 and Kdx) and how much of villain's range are monsters (sets/flushes).

If bluffs/weak draws compose a good portion of that range and villain is likely to take a shot on the river (and this is "read" i am working from considering how the OP was worded) then calling turn and calling ANY river is the most +EV play, as you maximize the hands from which you get value.

If on the other hand, you think that villain is going to be randomly leading out here with weak Ks and playing for stacks with marginal hands and either isn't bluffing much or isn't going to try to bluff river, then we crush villain's range and get maximum value from our perceived range of villain by shoving turn.

So it all depends on your view of villain's range as to what line is best...and it isn't like you can pick up much of a "read" from reading a few lines about a player you've never played with. If you start from different starting points then obv you aren't going to end up at the same end point.

feitr said:

If bluffs/weak draws compose a good portion of that range and villain is likely to take a shot on the river

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Well if villain has a FD + a pair, he's drawing to 11 outs, giving him 22% equity. If 40$ goes in here, he's losing $62.4. But if he hits on the river, and jams, and we snap call, his play will be plus EV (since he'll put 70$ in with 100% equity, 70-62.4 = +7.6$). I guess its a small mistake that we're giving up, but I'm weak-tight like that.

Combine that with the fact that I'm betting his stacking range is fairly wide, and isn't just sets & flushes here, and we do have some equity vs. sets in flushes, I'm okay jamming it in on the turn.

And I'm gonna ignore Stick, because he's going to check his PM's and feel a little bad about his previous post...

c9h13no3 said:

Well if villain has a FD + a pair, he's drawing to 11 outs, giving him 22% equity. If 40$ goes in here, he's losing $62.4. But if he hits on the river, and jams, and we snap call, his play will be plus EV (since he'll put 70$ in with 100% equity, 70-62.4 = +7.6$). I guess its a small mistake that we're giving up, but I'm weak-tight like that.

Combine that with the fact that I'm betting his stacking range is fairly wide, and isn't just sets & flushes here, and we do have some equity vs. sets in flushes, I'm okay jamming it in on the turn.

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Sure, but that is the absolute worst case scenario you are depicting...when villain hits the nuts and we pay him off. The only reason we would pay villain off in such a spot is because we are working on the read that villain will shove a wide range on the river, a good portion being air, a small portion being made hands we beat and a small portion being the effective nuts. So when you factor in the fact that we gain $$ from bluffs at least some of the time in the majority situation where villain misses and it will easily switch to being very +EV for us.

I just approach these hands as characterising villain as it seems OP wants them viewed. It is probably true that villain will stack off wide here, villain might even make retarded donks on the turn with marginal hands and/or might stack off super light...i have no idea, as i have no idea how villain plays. What i do know is that villain is capable of bluffing the river, and thus presented the most +EV line when a good portion of villain's range agrees with that read.

Dude, I'm way too weak tight for that line >_<. And will this guy seriously call a raise, and then fire the turn with a pure air bluff, and then fire on the river again? If he's that crazy, you *have* to assume that he'll also stack light right? I honestly don't think bluffs make up a giant part of his range here, or at least pure bluffs. After BW showed that much strength, he'd have to be a bit nutty.

It would also help if BW posted the original "bluff the river" hand...

Well obviously i don't know seeing as it is pretty hard to base any sort of assumptions on the info in OP.

But the fact is that if somebody is likely to bluff the river in this case it is better to call off your stack, as much as that may hurt seeing as some of the scare cards that can come, than jamming the turn...simply because you end up getting your stack in against the widest of villain's range.

Alot of players make the mistake of wanting to just jam overtop because they are just too scared to see some river cards. Sometimes that is justified and sometimes it isn't. Say you are playing HU and you have 99 OOP on a 562 board or something...it is probably justified to try and get it in on the flop because there are so many scare cards that can hit and make the hand almost impossible to play OOP, even if that means getting it in against a narrower range of villain. Another example is when you are pretty sure that villain isn't going to try and bluff river, in which case protecting your hand is correct. If in this hand for instance we think villain might be bluffing turn here but will always shut down on river with all his bluffs, then jamming turn to protect our hand and maximize value is absolutely correct if we are ahead of villain's range.

I will have the last word in this post!!!1`

*shakes fist*

P.S. - Your line is probably right, but I'm way too weak/tight to call off my stack