Originally Posted by feitr
I already explained that villain isn't going to show up with AK/KQ here because a 16pfr doesn't limp call with those hands from HJ.
It also makes absolutely 0 sense for villain to turn a weak K here into what is basically a bluff, unless he has a diamond.
It also probably didn't make sense to jam the river with air in the previous hand, but players do it. 48/16's usually aren't out to play brilliant poker. They just do stuff, without a whole lot of reason why.
I agree that the flush will only hit ~20% of the time, but when it does it really increases our chances of making a 70$ mistake. Are we planning on calling his river bet when the last flush card arrives?
And if you guys are seriously having your feelings hurt by my comments, I can give you a hug? Take it up in PM's if you have a problem with me, but don't go crapping up BW's thread just because you're worried people might take "smoking crack" all sensitive & be afraid to post their opinions here.
Plus you have to admit, a 4-flush board is a bluffer's paradise, especially this kind of player. They're not thinking about your range, they're thinking "holy crap, that board is scary, its unlikely for him to have a diamond, I'm betting!"