[100NL FR] T8s 3bets on the BTN

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Villain is 15/9/1 over 400 hands, folds 67% to cbets, 33% WTSD.

I love 3betting on the BTN. Flop is really not perfect for a cbet and I do hit second pair and a gutshot so I take a stab and get called. Can I fire a second barrel on turn now or should I take a free card?

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $107.10 (107.1 bb)
UTG+2: $21.50 (21.5 bb)
MP1: $134.80 (134.8 bb)
MP2: $99.40 (99.4 bb)
MP3: $145.90 (145.9 bb)
CO: $113.55 (113.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $104.50 (104.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 8
club.gif
T
club.gif

4 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, CO calls $7

Flop: ($21.50) T
heart.gif
9
diamond.gif
Q
heart.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $16, CO calls $16

Turn: ($53.50) Q
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(2 players)
CO checks, Hero ?
 
zachvac

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This is like never a Q. The Q is kind of a bad card because it makes the range we're repping a lot narrower, but if he has KQ/AQ and is slowplaying his TP on this board it's a pretty huge leak. I probably fire this one and then probably give up unimproved. He's not calling 2 streets with AK or really other non-felting hand (plus there's an off-chance he called your 3-bet oop with KK/AA which stacks) so I think a third would be spew but against someone who will flat 3-bets oop I think you have to barrel this turn. He quite simply cannot rep anything.
 
BelgoSuisse

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He's not calling 2 streets with AK or really other non-felting hand

But our hand has showdown value so we're ahead of AK so we don't really need to fold it.
 
zachvac

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But our hand has showdown value so we're ahead of AK so we don't really need to fold it.
No you misunderstood me. I meant if we fire 2 barrels we don't have to worry about still being ahead of AK and making a river hero call vs. what we think is AK. I meant basically if he calls 2 and bets river we can muck pretty fast. Actually now that I think of it barreling river may be a bit spew here. I don't know about river but I definitely like double barreling here.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Turn action and River

Ok, so i'm a wuss and miss a clear second barrel opportunity. Action goes as follows.

Hero checks
*** RIVER *** [Th 9d Qh Qd] [Jh]
Villain checks
Hero ?


So we get a miraculous straight that also makes it 3 hearts on board. Is there any value in betting here?
 
F Paulsson

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Regarding turn:

You have a pretty decent idea of what his range is like, because he folds to 3bets often, and he has a narrow opening range. After he calls the flop, I'd think almost all of his underpairs are gone (I don't know if he'd peel the flop with 88) and so the rationale for a turn bet has to be for protection vs AK or AJ. There are very few flush draws in his range on account of the flop texture. Maybe 3, 4 tops? Contrast that with sets and two pairs, a flopped straight and top pairs (AQ/KQ).

I think our equity sucks here, and I wouldn't take another stab.
 
F Paulsson

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River:

I don't think there's value in a river bet. The only hand I think you can realistically hope to get value from is AQ, and that's 8 combos. Contrast with boats (which you could perhaps discount somewhat, but there's a decent chunk of them available on this board), higher straights and the occasionally rare flush. So check back. Unless you think he'll call with AJ/AT or some weird hand like that, which I think is pretty unlikely.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Wow, so Fredrik plays turn and river exactly like i did (check check). And I thought I was botching this hand. I'm extatic! :D
 
F Paulsson

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Wow, so Fredrik plays turn and river exactly like i did (check check). And I thought I was botching this hand. I'm extatic! :D
I think that's the best line, yeah. It's easy to want to think "I want to protect versus a jack" but it's a little bit difficult for him to have a jack (or a flushdraw) that doesn't already have us beaten. Not impossible, but unlikely. It's pretty difficult to make these decisions quickly at the table, especially if you have many tables going at once. My decision-making process looks something like this (so I don't have to start counting too many combos):

1. Will he fold a better hand if I bet the turn? My gut reaction says "no."
2. Will he call with a worse hand? My gut reaction says "maybe a jack."
3. Am I bluffing? Yes.
4. He called the flop bet. Has the turn changed things so he might now be persuaded to fold? No, the turn doesn't change anything in our favor.

#4 is a tip I picked up from Alan. In order to fire a second barrel (very generally speaking), the turn must have changed the board somehow. So a 4-8-8-K turn could be barrelled, because he might have peeled the flop with a pair of sixes, for instance, but the turn hits the range he hoped we had when he called the flop pretty hard, so he might be inclined to give up. A deuce, on the other hand, doesn't change things, so I'd be less inclined to double barrel there, unless I have reasons to believe he peels the flop very light.
 
blankoblanco

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This is like never a Q. The Q is kind of a bad card because it makes the range we're repping a lot narrower, but if he has KQ/AQ and is slowplaying his TP on this board it's a pretty huge leak.

slowplaying? i don't get what you mean. AQ/KQ are not hugely strong on the flop but they're probably strong enough that he'll call. are you suggesting he should c/r those in a 3bet pot vs. belgo who i presume to be fairly tight? because i think that's pretty bad. then all he did was check to the aggressor again. this would be how i would expect your typical 15/9 to play those hands here. you can for sure say that they ought to donk the turn, but a lot of tight players almost never do that. i just don't think you can rule out a Q by any stretch of the imagination

i check behind turn and quite hate double barreling tbh. i can't think of a better hand in his range that folds (maybe AT, if he even gets here with that hand.. but hell, if he does get here with that he probably won't fold it now), it's possible for a few draws we beat to call but if he's decent (or just tight, which he seems to be) he'll be folding those OOP with the board pairing and us repping a strong hand. only draws that are likely to call are the ones that also beat us with a pair like JJ and JT. and imo we can't exactly fire and then fire all rivers that miss when he checks to us because as i stated before, i think it's ridiculously easy for him to show up with AQ/KQ here
 
blankoblanco

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and i also check behind river, can't see enough value in betting, so basically i agree with FP/the way you played this hand
 
zachvac

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slowplaying? i don't get what you mean. AQ/KQ are not hugely strong on the flop but they're probably strong enough that he'll call. are you suggesting he should c/r those in a 3bet pot vs. belgo who i presume to be fairly tight? because i think that's pretty bad. then all he did was check to the aggressor again. this would be how i would expect your typical 15/9 to play those hands here. you can for sure say that they ought to donk the turn, but a lot of tight players almost never do that. i just don't think you can rule out a Q by any stretch of the imagination

ok on second thought I think you're right. Guess I was just thinking "top pair, 3-bet pot, drawy board, he'd obviously stack TP". idk I still have no idea what someone's 3-bet calling range oop is, mainly because I basically never do it.

I guess I agree KQ/QJ could just flat but from what I've seen I expect 99% of villains to C/R here and get AQ in. Ditto on his sets/2-pair hands. But I expect him to basically float all draws and like 88+. Other than KQ/QJ this entire range basically bricked, and on top of that the second Q made KQ/QJ more unlikely.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Results

from what I've seen I expect 99% of villains to C/R here and get AQ in.

Hero checks. Villain shows AQ. Hero wins pot

It still looks a bit like a train-wreck of a hand to me, mostly from villain's perspective at least... :D
 
zachvac

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LOL. I will never understand villains that flat hands like AJ/AQ oop to 3-bets. It's like they don't want to 4-bet and turn it into a bluff and think they are ahead of your range so they call, ignoring the fact that playing oop like this in a 3-bet pot with their hand sucks. If he's only getting one street from worse when he flops this, and probably paying off stack when you hit a monster, or if it's A-high flop and you have AK, his play is pretty bad. btw when I said you should barrel turn I was kidding when I said he didn't have Q. I really meant that he probably has a Q, you'll probably hit a draw, and you'll end up winning the pot ;).
 
The Shrog

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As I'm reading all of this, I can't thing of a way the villain could have played this hand worse. You had to know you were getting there :D.
 
blankoblanco

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it ends up looking awful on villain's side, but he didn't really play it that bad, at least not abnormally bad. preflop sucks and basically can't be profitable but i still expect most players to do it, even some players who beat the game have those kinds of leaks. i'd also donk the turn as to not let AA/KK/JJ check behind, but checking to the aggressor in any situation is rarely horrible, just probably wasn't the best play given the likelihood that belgo has a big pair. and obv he has to check river

he played it suboptimally but in a pretty standardly bad way imo :)
 
BelgoSuisse

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he played it suboptimally but in a pretty standardly bad way imo :)

yeah, he may have planned a check-raise on turn that didn't happen as i checked behind, and then of course a K is so much in my range on the river that his trips are worthless then.
 
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