Originally Posted by tenbob
Heh, all you got here Chuck is a bluff catcher. Given some poor players will do this with ace high, assuming a split. Given the action though a hand like A8 fits the action, and combine this with the way people love big river bets with the nuts, I think we are beat here enough times that leaves calling -EV.
I lean towards fold. If we had a nice read, and a villian with a high enough river aggression factor we could call more profitably.
Does A8 really fit the action? Don't we have to discount it somewhat given that he didn't bet or c/r the turn?
From my perspective, I see a lot of people leading double paired rivers (in limit HE) with pocket pairs, for instance 99 on this board, because they figure that I "have" to call with an ace-kicker for the chance of chopping. That's not to say that that play carries over to NLHE in any way, but the psychology of it might. WE know that his hand may have improved to the best hand on the river, but that river card "shouldn't" have changed our relative hand strengths unless he has A4s. And how could he put us on a straight?
I call it.