[100NL FR] Squeeze w/ JJ gets 4bet

Ok, This exact same scenario happened last time I was on the BB. Button opened, SB called and i 3bet 78s. They both folded. Very next time around this happens:

Button here is a 14/10/4 reg with 40% att to steal. We have had some 3betting history in the past and I may have 4bet bluffed him once at some point.

My typical FR numbers are ~16/14/2.5 with 40+% to steal and ~5% 3bet. Given history with this villain, I think I have to shove this, no?


poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $49.60 (49.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $119.95 (120 bb)
UTG: $180 (180 bb)
UTG+1: $101.25 (101.3 bb)
MP1: $102.50 (102.5 bb)
MP2: $70.85 (70.9 bb)
MP3: $117.65 (117.7 bb)
CO: $115.05 (115.1 bb)
BTN: $122.80 (122.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J J
6 folds, BTN raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $13, BTN raises to $34, SB folds, Hero ?

AIPF here with JJ is pretty ballsy but if your history is that you are c onstantly battling blinds with this guy it's very doubtful you are worse than a coinflip (aka he has QQ-AA). If you don't mind the coinflip situation then yeah go for it man. Otherwise he just might be doing this with a worse PP than you.

Whats his 3bet, fold to 3bet %. And do you have any 4bet stats on him? I would probably be inclined to go with it, but I would definately want to check out these numbers.

Like ice mentions your flipping against a 4% range. Whatever his 4bet % is I would figure it to be a little wider in this particular spot, with the history, and the button-big blind dynamic

In a button battle, ship it!

EDIT - NVM, this is full ring. But I still ship it here with history.

Yeah his fold to 3bet and the sample size is pretty important here.

Have you seen him 4-bet/fold before? Another pretty important factor, you have to have at least some fold equity for this to show a profit. If he never 4-bet bluffs, I don't think you can ship it here, but I may be wrong.

time to get the ol' spreadsheet out. . . .

If he calls with TT+,AQs+,AKo he needs to fold ~7% of the time

If he calls with QQ+,AK he needs to fold ~27% of the time.

Obviously his calling range is probably going to be somewhere in the middle there so you need SOME fold equity to ship this.

I'd bet tempted to shove too. But I'm not sure that's right. Another line is to call, and lead shove the flop if it wasn't disasterous. (e.g. AKQ, 89Ts)

Out of position... easy fold.

so what happened?

Jake said:

I'd bet tempted to shove too. But I'm not sure that's right. Another line is to call, and lead shove the flop if it wasn't disasterous. (e.g. AKQ, 89Ts)

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So that AK folds and QQ+ stacks us. Awesome strategy sir! In a tournament, where player's ranges include a lot more un-paired overcard hands, this is actually a good play as a bluff with a hand like JTs. But in a cash game, if you get in the business of flatting 4-bets, you'll be broke pretty quick.

Yeah his fold to 3bet and the sample size is pretty important here.

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Fold to 3bet is 38% and 800 hands

bw07507 said:

Fold to 3bet is 38% and 800 hands

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I'm not sure if this is loose at full ring, but at 6-max, against a 40% to steal, I'd certainly ship this, and I might even think about fist pumping.

I fold here.

vanquish said:

I fold here.

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Wtf, how? He opens 40% of his hands on the button when folded to, and when he's 3-bet, he folds to less than half of them! This is AK or a bluff of some sort a huge percentage of the time IMO. AK being his most likely holding since he's calling in position with a lot of stuff like QQ.

But yeah, if we take his steal percentage (40% of hands) and multiply by the amount he continues with (62%) we end up with a range of 25% of hands. That range is wide, and we have decent fold equity & actual equity.

c9h13no3 said:

Wtf, how? He opens 40% of his hands on the button when folded to, and when he's 3-bet, he folds to less than half of them! This is AK or a bluff of some sort a huge percentage of the time IMO. AK being his most likely holding since he's calling in position with a lot of stuff like QQ.

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Well the %38 fold to 3b is a total, an average including when he opens from all other positions as well as stealing spots. So in when he's stealing that wide it most probably means he's folding a lot more than that %38 suggests.

As for my opinion I can't give one because I suck in close spots like these where you have to actually do math to solve. In-game I snapshove because I suck and can't lay down pretty cards, but I'm not sure shoving is good.

Care to share your calculations dsvw?

Or if he knows that BW's range is more likely to contain some re-steal hands, maybe he'd 4-bet light? Or do they not think about that sort of thing at full ring?

Didn't I post the spreadsheet I use for these things around here somewhere?

Anyways, here's the Formula :

A= Current Pot Total
B= Equity when called
C= Cost to Shove
D= Cost for opponent to call

(A*B)+(D*B)-(C*(1-B)) = EV

E = EV

(E*-1) / ((E*-1) + A) = Min Fold %

I'll megaupload the spreadsheet in a second and post the link in a new thread.

Edit : Threads up

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/all-spreadsheet-calculator-132781/

c9h13no3 said:

Or if he knows that BW's range is more likely to contain some re-steal hands, maybe he'd 4-bet light? Or do they not think about that sort of thing at full ring?

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Yeah i don't think people 4bet light in FR. Taking a quick look through my db and I can't find a reg who 4bets more than %1.

c9h13no3 said:

Wtf, how? He opens 40% of his hands on the button when folded to, and when he's 3-bet, he folds to less than half of them! This is AK or a bluff of some sort a huge percentage of the time IMO. AK being his most likely holding since he's calling in position with a lot of stuff like QQ.

But yeah, if we take his steal percentage (40% of hands) and multiply by the amount he continues with (62%) we end up with a range of 25% of hands. That range is wide, and we have decent fold equity & actual equity.

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By clicking the fold button. You're thinking too much about random HUD percentages and less about the fundamental fact that we're almost never good here given that it's full-ring and we got 4-bet (you're basically just wrong about it being a bluff any sort of "huge percentage of the time."). Obviously when you look at statistics and multiply them by each other, you can a math equation that seems to condone shoving, but really, this is quite a standard fold at full-ring.

Edit: This is why I spend about 50% of the time playing without a HUD (and I don't sacrifice any PTBB loss, though I do move down to ~6 tables when I play with no HUD). It lets you identify spots and judge them rationally, rather than thinking about all kinds of statistics that end up being misleading half the time.

ivtzata said:

Out of position... easy fold.

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position is irrelevant when you consider stacking preflop...

vanquish said:

By clicking the fold button. You're thinking too much about random HUD percentages and less about the fundamental fact that we're almost never good here given that it's full-ring and we got 4-bet

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I would tend to agree. Stats mix what villain does against nits and fishes, while if you know he's a reg, he knows you're a reg too. It certainly means he steals less light and maybe means he 4bets more lightly although i doubt that happens a lot at FR. Recent history should also reduce his 2bet range and maybe but only maybe open up his 4bet range.

Well I ended up shoving this one and villain folded. Usually I just get rid of this, but since I had just squeezed him last time he was on the button I thought to myself that he could be light here a good portion of the way. I know not many people at 100NL FR would ever 4bet light but I have seen a few who will.

c9h13no3 said:

So that AK folds and QQ+ stacks us. Awesome strategy sir! In a tournament, where player's ranges include a lot more un-paired overcard hands, this is actually a good play as a bluff with a hand like JTs. But in a cash game, if you get in the business of flatting 4-bets, you'll be broke pretty quick.

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um.... I'm suggesting an alternative to the 4bet shove that was proposed. QQ is going to stack you in either case. With AK the 4 bet shove will likely earn a little more vs the flop lead push. But if AK hits the flop then you lose a little less.... either way - this is high variance. my suggestion lowers variance a little. sir.

Jake said:

um.... I'm suggesting an alternative to the 4bet shove that was proposed. QQ is going to stack you in either case. With AK the 4 bet shove will likely earn a little more vs the flop lead push. But if AK hits the flop then you lose a little less.... either way - this is high variance. my suggestion lowers variance a little. sir.

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Lowering variance at the expense of profit doesn't make a lot of sense when we're playing with a full roll does it?

AK is the main hand we get value from in this situation. We want to get all the money in vs. AK. We don't want to wait for a non-A, non-K flop and then jam, folding out AK.

heh... the surer I am that villian has AK - the more likely I flat.