[100nl FR] QQ vs. beluga raise on KT88 flushy board

Villain is a 13/9/3.5 over 250 hands, which is a lot for my db as i moved up only 10k hands ago, but not enough for post-flop stats to converge yet.

It's been a weird session were i've been getting so much respect for my 3bets in position that i decide to vary the pleasures and flat with QQ.

I think the flop is standard. On the turn, am I correct to bet? If yes, is bet sizing fine? And what do I do once villain goes for the CRAI ?


Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+2: $23.40 (23.4 bb)
MP1: $144.60 (144.6 bb)
MP2: $113.80 (113.8 bb)
Hero (MP3): $114.40 (114.4 bb)
CO: $20 (20 bb)
BTN: $51.15 (51.2 bb)
SB: $79 (79 bb)
BB: $170.50 (170.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Q Q
CO posts BB out of position, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 4 folds

Flop: ($14.50) 8 K T (2 players)
MP2 bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($36.50) 8 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 raises to $96.80 and is all-in, Hero tanks

Without any reads that villain will do this with a wide range, I really can't see calling the CRAI. The flat PF put you in a tough spot after the flop, so it's hard to put your opponent on a range/figure out if he's moving in with a better hand, or what he THINKS is a better hand, since he doesn't know how strong you are.

The villian who raised from EP and is a 13/9 will do this with a wide range? I know its not your standard play but I dont really like flatting QQ here against this guy, it probably worked out though here. Too many bad flops can happen to QQ. Either way mix it in though gotta do it, flop is standard I think. I probably go for a cheaper showdown here and check turn. There arent many scare cards on the river here so I am not too concerned about that. This does look like a standard float though so you may get some worse hands to call.
Calling here is terrible I think. He could do this with almost his entire range yes (sorry shrog you probably meant this earlier) but his range hits this pretty hard. AQ(unlikely), JJ, maybe 99 are the only hands you probably beat in his range.

Tough hand here, I think we are not commited enough and can let go after villain shoves. I think with villain's stats he is doing that move on the turn with a made flush, full house or AK/KQ/KT type hands. I really think a raise on the flop could of helped us out some. As played, I think I would also bet the turn and then just let go when he shoves.

I don't like our hand here.

baudib1 said:

I don't like our hand here.

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please explain, thoughts?

widowmaker89 said:

I know its not your standard play but I dont really like flatting QQ here against this guy, it probably worked out though here.

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It's tough but it's fun. Isn't that why we play?

But very non-standard, I agree.

bob_tiger said:

I think with villain's stats he is doing that move on the turn with a made flush, full house or AK/KQ/KT type hands.

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You really think a made flush or a FH chooses to extract the most value with a CRAI on turn?

I really think a raise on the flop could of helped us out some.

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Helped us how? As i see it, raising flop folds out most worse hands, gets called by kings, and flush draws 4bet shove over our raise and we have to fold the best hand.

BelgoSuisse said:

You really think a made flush or a FH chooses to extract the most value with a CRAI on turn?



Helped us how? As i see it, raising flop folds out most worse hands, gets called by kings, and flush draws 4bet shove over our raise and we have to fold the best hand.

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Yea if I'm the villain out of position, I would try to get it in on the turn, don't you think (I'm still talking as the villain) if I flat your bet here and then I lead out on the river, wouldn't that look kind of "funny" and you can easily figure out that I'm value betting.

From my point of view, I rather just take this hand down on the flop, since the flop is kind of "wet".

Also, we need to call $96.8 for a $227.1 pot (rake deducted), so to call we need to have 43% equity against villain's range.

43% is not so big when you consider we do have 25% equity vs. hands close to the top of his range like AK without the ace of spade. Also, with Ks, Qs, Ts and 8s accounted for, there's virtually no made flush in his opening range. AsJs and As9s probably, but i doubt he opens Js9s so early. Similarly very few trip eights fit his opening range.

Also, I don't quite see why he would go for the CRAI with the very top of his range like a made nut flush, a boat or AK with the A of spade. bet/bet/bet is a much more likely line for that, isn't it?

bob_tiger said:

From my point of view, I rather just take this hand down on the flop, since the flop is kind of "wet".

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So you raise the flop, fold if shoved to? I really don't like that.

Only hands I can think of that play this way that we beat are QJ/AQ/AJ, either possibly holding a spade as well. And since we hold two queens, there's even less of that in his range. If this is a +EV play, I think its so close to 0 EV that folding isn't a huge mistake. Just because villain plays his hand fast doesn't mean he can't be holding a flush/TT/QQ.

Whats his W$SD? I realize it probably hasn't converged yet, but if you enjoy bluff catching, you could at least check to see if its crazy in 1 way or the other.

Oh, and 3-bet. You've got fancy play syndrome worse than me.

Well we only need to call 76.8 unless I am missing something? Even still im not sure we are at 34% here. I cant really imagine we are beating very much of his range at all. You think he turns 99 and JJ into bluffs like this? AsQ maybe, not like we are really rocking that though. Im not really sure AK no spade is at the top of his range right now. He raised from an earlier position and has bet/cr.

BelgoSuisse said:

Also, we need to call $96.8 for a $227.1 pot (rake deducted), so to call we need to have 43% equity against villain's range.

43% is not so big when you consider we do have 25% equity vs. hands at the top of his range like AK without the ace of spade. Also, with Ks, Qs, Ts and 8s accounted for, there's virtually no made flush in his opening range. AsJs and As9s probably, but i doubt he opens Js9s so early. Similarly very few trip eights fit his opening range.

Also, I don't quite see why he would go for the CRAI with the very top of his range like a made nut flush, a boat AK with the A of spade. bet/bet/bet is a much more likely line for that, isn't it?

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The way I look at it if he is a decent player, he is trying to confuse you with the check/raise on the turn, (bet the flop and then check the turn making you think that he is weak) I have personally seen people do this before with the hands I said. I have also seen other players make this move as a bluff but they were laggy players. I just don't see most tag players making this move as a bluff.

widowmaker89 said:

Well we only need to call 76.8 unless I am missing something?

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you're right. we only need to have 34% equity. Trivial call, then, imo. Sorry to bother you guys...

Even still im not sure we are at 34% here. I cant really imagine we are beating very much of his range at all. You think he turns 99 and JJ into bluffs like this? AsQ maybe, not like we are really rocking that though.

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I think AsQ, AsJ and maybe AsT are all within his range, and we're 75% ahead of all those. And while turning pocket pairs into bluffs is unlikely indeed, you can't totally rule it out, especially something like JsJx.

BelgoSuisse said:

So you raise the flop, fold if shoved to? I really don't like that.

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Well if he shoves, I know that I'm behind, since tags don't 3 bet shove bluff at this level. Of course he could be shoving with a flush draw, but its most likely AQs/AJs as I don't really see any other hands in his range, possibly J9s but I just don't see him playing that.

c9h13no3 said:

Whats his W$SD? I realize it probably hasn't converged yet, but if you enjoy bluff catching, you could at least check to see if its crazy in 1 way or the other.

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W$SD is 60% over 5 hands sample. In other words, has not converged yet.

BelgoSuisse said:

you're right. we only need to have 34% equity. Trivial call, then, imo. Sorry to bother you guys...



I think AsQ, AsJ and maybe AsT are all within his range, and we're 75% ahead of all those. And while turning pocket pairs into bluffs is unlikely indeed, you can't totally rule it out, especially something like JsJx.

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I just don't see most tags at this level making this move as a bluff.

EDIT: yea he can be doing it with the hands you listed, but wouldn't it make sense for him to bet the turn again with those hands?

BelgoSuisse said:

W$SD is 60% over 5 hands sample. In other words, has not converged yet.

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yea we definitely can't go by this.

bob_tiger said:

I just don't see most tags at this level making this move as a bluff.

EDIT: yea he can be doing it with the hands you listed, but wouldn't it make sense for him to bet the turn again with those hands?

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No, i think CRAI is absolutely standard with those hands against an aggressive hero. And i certainly qualify as an aggressive hero at that table.

BelgoSuisse said:

No, i think CRAI is absolutely standard with those hands against an aggressive hero. And i certainly qualify as an aggressive hero at that table.

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Lol this hand is just crazyyyy, quit outplaying people and we won't have this problem lol jk, Ok right, but I think I'm still folding this hand after he shoves. This has been a really interesting hand, could you pm me what happened as I'm really interested to see what you did and what happened since I already stated my point of view on the hand but no need to spoil it for anyone else since this is a good discussion.

Belgo, you got aim or msn? wouldn't mind talking to you on there if you want.

Also, I don't think villain ever has a boat here. Villains who bet their flopped sets out of position don't suddenly get fancy when they hit a boat or quads on turn and possible flush draws just got there. They just bet/bet/bet.

BelgoSuisse said:

Also, I don't think villain ever has a boat here. Villains who bet their flopped sets out of position don't suddenly get fancy when they hit a boat or quads on turn and possible flush draws just got there. They just bet/bet/bet.

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You don't think he has fancy syndrome like you ? Good point but look at it this way, if he thinks you hit a flush, he sees it as a great spot to get it in, which makes sense to me since he is OOP, he doesn't want any river to scare you and he is trying to get most value out of his hand which would make sense to me.

bob_tiger said:

You don't think he has fancy syndrome like you ?

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Tables where just crazy tight tonight. Fancy play syndrome is +EV in that environment.