[100NL FR] QQ vs. Axx board

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Playing against two fishes. MP1 is 44/0/1.7 and BB is 46/15/3.5, but both over small number of hands. Obviously don't like flop and action, what do we do? Note that BB is short while both MP1 and I are deepish.


full tilt poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $52.80
UTG: $100
UTG+1: $109
MP1: $121.45
MP2: $125.50
CO: $18
BTN: $30.25
Hero (SB): $154.45

Pre-Flop:
qc.gif
qs.gif
dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $4, MP1 calls $4

Flop: ($15)
9d.gif
9h.gif
ah.gif
(3 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $15, MP1 calls $15, Hero ?
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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I would just fold here on the flop, yeah it kinda sucks, but if they hit this board at all in some way your behind. Even if they has a flush draw it's going to be easy for you to make a mistake on later streets, by either getting bluffed off the best hand or having to fold when a K or heart comes and they bet. HU I would probably at least peel the flop here and reevalute thier turn actions, but even then it's pretty meh
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Yea, its a standard fold here IMO. If it HU against one of them then there may be an arguement to call down light, but a bet AND a call vs 2 players that have no idea what a squeeze play is, isn't optimal.

Both players have rag aces/flush draws/and nines in their range, you will probably find 1010 type hands as well, I dont want to find out here though.
 
P

plainluck

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I see this scenario a lot on here. I don't understand why there's a question. If the flop comes and there's even one card higher than your pair (let alone a possible trip) and someone bets ahead of you, you can be pretty sure you are beat. Why would you do anything but fold?
 
A

ArminDeluxe

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i would fold on that flop too with qq
others could have an ass or a 6 or kk
so u would loose and waiting for the third q would make u loose even more money
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I see this scenario a lot on here. I don't understand why there's a question. If the flop comes and there's even one card higher than your pair (let alone a possible trip) and someone bets ahead of you, you can be pretty sure you are beat. Why would you do anything but fold?

With a single better i would call everytime and it would be profitable. It's only tricky here because there are two of them. You need to learn about WA/WB
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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don't know how this is anything but a quick fold. going to be quite rare you're ahead of both (i.e. both have flush draws, or one has a flush draw and the other has a smaller pair)
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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don't know how this is anything but a quick fold.

Let's try an argument against folding: From their stats, BB is an aggressive short stack who could be betting most of his range once I check instead of cbetting the flop. MP1 is a calling station who could be calling with a lot of hands we beat like medium/low pocket pairs and flush draws.

Because of that, i don't think we're always behind here. We don't have a huge equity against their ranges for sure because this kind of fish plays most Ax hands, but then again we're getting a pretty reasonable price in terms of pot odds.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Results

I did as everyone here adviced, i.e. i folded. A blank (7) hit on turn, aggro villain shoved the rest of his small stack, station villain called.

At showdown aggro villain had air (Jxo) and station villain had a Q7 flush draw and won the pot.

In retrospect, i think villain's stats should have made me realize this was in the realm of possibilities and i could have made the calls given the reasonable price i was given. it would obviously be a higher variance play, but i'm not sure it would be -ev
 
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