[100nl FR] Missed draw in position

Irexes

Irexes

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How's the line?

Is the river bet solid?

Is it the right size?

Villain 15/9 Agg 1 45 hands, no history between us.

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
MP1: $55.55 (55.6 bb)
MP2: $110.80 (110.8 bb)
MP3: $55.65 (55.7 bb)
CO: $121.65 (121.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $100.10 (100.1 bb)
SB: $103.55 (103.6 bb)
BB: $28.65 (28.7 bb)
UTG: $20 (20 bb)
UTG+1: $175.15 (175.2 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 4
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6
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6 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds
Flop: ($9) 5
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7
club.gif
A
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8
Turn: ($33) 7
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($33) 4
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I prefer to bet the turn than the river, tbh. What's your rational for checking behind turn?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Sorry i'm confused. River is a value bet or a bluff?

As a bluff, i think it works better on the turn. As a value bet, it's incredibly thin.
 
B

baudib1

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I agree that river bluff after checking turn is bad. I don't think Ax ever folds here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I did some funky stuff with pokerstove and Excel a few months back and decided that the situations where it's correct not to bet a strong draw on the turn as a semibluff with money left behind are so few and far between that it's virtually never correct to "take the free card." I'll see if I can find that excel sheet (there's a very real risk that it got wiped when I got a new computer) but I trust the results I got there.

The gist of it, in any case, was this:

If we bet 70% of the pot, with 20% equity, our opponent only needs to fold 25% of the time to make it +EV. This makes a few assumptions that are a bit dicey, namely:

1. That villain doesn't raise instead of just call when he decides to continue.
2. That we are drawing to the nuts.
3. That we won't make any more money on the river when called and we get there.

#1 is always a problem, unless our bet puts us all-in.

#2 works against us in this example. He could have a boat, or worse yet: Our gin card gives him a boat.

#3 works in our favour, and can perhaps roughly be said to offset the risk of us being up against a boat. We will indeed squeeze out some profit versus AJ/AQ/AK, and some random trip sevens when we get there.

There are specific board textures that I may check behind, but it would have to be such a board that my opponent's range is completely polarized and I'd rather bluffraise the river when I miss than just give him a chance to check/shove the turn.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I did some funky stuff with pokerstove and Excel a few months back and decided that the situations where it's correct not to bet a strong draw on the turn as a semibluff with money left behind are so few and far between that it's virtually never correct to "take the free card."

+1.

the only caveat i have, is if you spew too much by putting in another barrel on the river when you miss but the board and action is not suitable for a big bluff.
 
thekazh

thekazh

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The only way you´re gonna win this pot is if SB re-raised you on the flop with a five which is very unlikely, therefor betting a river like this is simply a BAD play, if you´re "lucky" you might get a split as the only thinkable hand your opponent can fold in this spot is the one you were holding yourself so CHECK CHECK CHECK ;)
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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The only way you´re gonna win this pot is if SB re-raised you on the flop with a five which is very unlikely, therefor betting a river like this is simply a BAD play, if you´re "lucky" you might get a split as the only thinkable hand your opponent can fold in this spot is the one you were holding yourself so CHECK CHECK CHECK ;)

By CHECK CHECK CHECK you mean check flop, turn and river? That would be horrible, imo. This is a flop you have to cbet 100% of the time, and once villain checks the turn after CR flop, i think it's a very clear bet on turn with the open ended straight draw.

If by CHECK CHECK CHECK you mean check river 3 times, then i agree. :D
 
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