100NL FR: Flop Top 2, Check Raised on Flop, Big Donk on Turn?

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villain is 25/14/2 over 120 hands. I haven't noticed any big hands with him previous to this hand.

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+2: $101.95 (102 bb)
MP1: $283.20 (283.2 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $167.70 (167.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $124.30 (124.3 bb)
BTN: $122.45 (122.5 bb)
SB: $63.80 (63.8 bb)
BB: $177.10 (177.1 bb)
UTG+1: $48.50 (48.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q
spade.gif
T
spade.gif

5 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 3
heart.gif
Q
heart.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN folds, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49.50) K
club.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero ???

Should I be playing the flop differently (looking to get it all in)?

Fold turn?
 
zachvac

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lol this kinda sucks. Even a 25% vp$ip doesn't play Q3 or T3 do they? Raises enough that I think he's 3-betting you with aces or AK (actually what's his 3-bet %?). Basically all you beat's a draw. J9 just got there, KQ just went ahead, you don't even beat KT anymore. Especially this deep and knowing that calling here commits us to stack (and I'd definitely raise rather than call) I think we can fold this.

I would just jam flop though (well not 3-bet jam but 3-bet reasonable size looking to get it in). On the flop there are plenty of combo draws, hands like KQ/QJ that may think they're ahead because you're pushing with a combo draw, and obviously this is the occaisional bluff. After he pots turn though I think you have to fold.
 
B

baudib1

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His three-bet % is fairly low so he could be flatting with a lot of hands that dominate ours. K is a bad card because it may have just completed his hand (AhJh) or put him ahead (KQ). Or he has a set of 3s and the pot-size lead on the turn is protecting his hand on such a wet board. I'm not loving middle two on this board with this action.
 
D

Dr_Dick

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I see villain taking this line primarily with two hands AQ or 33. And while it could be a semi-bluff on a heart draw or just a pure bluff with villain trying to make a move...IMO thoes scenarios are unlikely. Villain is showing real strength here and doesn't want anymore cards coming out. I know it is hard when you hit two pair to accept villain hit a set, specifically 33, but his line screams this is the case. With AQ on this flop I think villain might lead out after the flop, maybe check-raise, but the huge bet after the turn makes me once again favor a set over the AQ.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Sorry his 3bet % is 0.

Also my ATS on this table was at 70% over ~55 hands at this point.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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my bad I misread.

although it is um, 0.
ffs he could have TT/QQ here.

Really unlikely as we hold 1 of each. Basically if we're beat it's because he holds exactly 33 or he's turned a better 2 pair or straight. Just because he hasn't 3bet in 120 hands doesn't mean he won't 3bet, just that he doesn't 3bet very much.
 
naruto_miu

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Really unlikely as we hold 1 of each. Basically if we're beat it's because he holds exactly 33 or he's turned a better 2 pair or straight. Just because he hasn't 3bet in 120 hands doesn't mean he won't 3bet, just that he doesn't 3bet very much.

So what did you do? And what was your thoughts at the time of doing so? You state his 3 bet is 0, so does that mean that you fold believing he has true strength?
 
B

baudib1

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Really unlikely as we hold 1 of each.

I keep telling myself that when I have AK and hit TPTK in three-bet pots and get pwn3d by AA/KK "OMG he can't have that, he has AQ."

Basically I think we hold a dominated hand vs. villain that loves his hand and the best-case scenario here is that he has something like AQ.
 
Last edited:
BelgoSuisse

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This is really a hand where you want to get it in on the flop. What was your reasoning for flatting?

Turn is just gross. I would not blame you for check-folding.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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This is really a hand where you want to get it in on the flop. What was your reasoning for flatting?

OMG top 2, better slowplay!!! :) Honestly not sure. His flop check-raise took me by surprise and I wasn't sure I wanted to commit 120bb with 2 pair. Also I really didn't think about the number of really scary cards that could hit on the turn. If I had taken just a few extra seconds to think I probably would have shipped it on the flop.
 
blankoblanco

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i'd jam flop and make the c-bet a little bigger to begin with. a lot of turn cards are sticky for you. calling flop can't be bad if you're going to be comfortable interpreting his turn action. in extreme cases, it could even be the most desirable option. but as a standard, i'd 3bet flop

turn as played, i sigh and fold. we still beat KJ but agh, screw it. the hands we do beat have a lot of equity still. just an ugly situation and i don't want to put any more money in
 
vanquish

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i'd jam flop and make the c-bet a little bigger to begin with. a lot of turn cards are sticky for you. calling flop can't be bad if you're going to be comfortable interpreting his turn action. in extreme cases, it could even be the most desirable option. but as a standard, i'd 3bet flop

turn as played, i sigh and fold. we still beat KJ but agh, screw it. the hands we do beat have a lot of equity still. just an ugly situation and i don't want to put any more money in

pretty much spot on
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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please jam flop. as played villain will lead into you on the turn and there aren't all that many turn cards you will be pleased to see (any broadway/heart/9 is dangerous for a start).

as played you can't really do anything but fold turn, horrible as it is. KJ and maybe QJs are pretty much the only feasible hands we beat, and even they have picked up lots of outs on the turn.

basically, what everyone else said. :)
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Guess I should update. I did fold the turn and he showed Jh 9h, so his draw was pretty big (after the flop we're basically a coin flip). I definitely thought I played the flop wrong and everything here confirmed just that. Thanks.
 
F Paulsson

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Good hand to post, because it's a good exercise in estimating ranges for our opponent and our equity versus that range. Without using PokerStove, what is your guess on our equity?

Offhand, I guessed at 40-50% equity. My guess was too high, though:

The widest possible range I can come up with for the turn:

QQ+,TT,33,AhKh,AQs-AJs,AhTh,Ah9h,KJs+,KhTh,Kh9h,QTs,JhTh,J9s,AQo,KJo+,QTo,J9o

against which we have 36% equity.

... and even that's pretty wide. I mean, it assumes he'd pot the turn out of position with Ah9h, for instance, and various other hands that I really doubt would bet at all, never mind pot-sized, on the turn.

As much as it sucks to fold in this spot, we really don't have much of an option.
 
F Paulsson

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By the way, a clarification:

36% equity would be good enough to call with if this is true:

1. He's all-in on the turn, and
2. His range is at least as wide as the above.

None of which is true; our equity is in most cases even lower than 36% (I'd venture a guess that it's closer to 20%) and he has another $50 left behind to bet on the river.
 
Stu_Ungar

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HAND #1
--------------------

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+2: $101.95 (102 bb)
MP1: $283.20 (283.2 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $167.70 (167.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $124.30 (124.3 bb)
BTN: $122.45 (122.5 bb)
SB: $63.80 (63.8 bb)
BB: $177.10 (177.1 bb)
UTG+1: $48.50 (48.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q
spade.gif
T
spade.gif

5 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 3
heart.gif
Q
heart.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN folds, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49.50) K
club.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero ???

Should I be playing the flop differently (looking to get it all in)?

Fold turn?

Sorry to hijack the thread but after seeing what the villan had, is it just me or did HE (the villian) play the hand really badly?

Here is my take.

Villian has Jh 9h
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q
spade.gif
T
spade.gif

5 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2

Ok this is fine - J9s isnt a great hand to play out of position but to play it occasionally is a good deceptive play which helps balance out his play.

Flop: ($9.50) 3
heart.gif
Q
heart.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN folds, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $14

The hero bet of 3/4 pot is fine.

Villian raises to $20 which is about pot and 1/3 bet (way too big)

It looks like he is trying to buy the pot OR he is on a draw and is trying to check the turn and see the river for free.

Had it been 3/4 pot then it would look more like he had a made hand and was reducing the odds for draws.

So if he is stealing then its likely he is doing it with a semi-bluff so he is drawing to a straight or a flush.

He has around 17 outs here so I am thinking that in his mind he wanted to see riverfor free and the big raise on the flop was to make you check the turn rather than risk a reraise again if he checked.


Turn: ($49.50) K
club.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero ???

This is his big mistake, as far as I can see.

He has made the second nut straight. The only hand that is higher is the AJ. Noone with an AJ is folding here so its not a raise to induce a fold.

The pot is large here, you are both on the verge of being pot committed and he is showing tonnes of aggression. So the chances of you calling/ raising him with a bluff are slim.

Value, yes its a value bet BUT he has the second nut straight. He also has 9 outs to a flush.

IMO his best move would have been to bet 1/2 pot and allowed you the option of calling / raising and then pressed harder on the river.

By raising pot sized on the turn, he was forcing all weaker hands out of the pot and allowing only the AJ to call. By giving a smaller turn bet he could ahve had you pot committed by the river.



What do others think of this analysis? It would be usefull for me to getsome feedback here because I feel that my poker knowlege is getting more and more each day right now and i dont want to be training myself to think in flawed ways. Id rather go back the the drawing board and rethink my ideas now than leave it 6 months and then have an even bigger task of correcting myself.
 
blankoblanco

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Flop: ($9.50) 3
heart.gif
Q
heart.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN folds, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $14

The hero bet of 3/4 pot is fine.

Villian raises to $20 which is about pot and 1/3 bet (way too big)

It looks like he is trying to buy the pot OR he is on a draw and is trying to check the turn and see the river for free.

Had it been 3/4 pot then it would look more like he had a made hand and was reducing the odds for draws.

stu, you're kind of off the mark here. firstly, the hero did not bet 3/4 pot. he bet less than 2/3 pot. it's a bit too small

and villain's raise is not too big at all. if anything it's small, although i don't mind it too much. for one thing, you misunderstand the concept of raising pot. we bet $6 into $9.50 so there is now $15.50 in the pot. a pot-sized raise means you bet double the player's bet + what's in the pot. raising pot, actually clicking the pot button, would result in a raise to $27.50. if it were pot limit hold 'em that would be the max raise one could make here

with any hand i'm raising here, i would make it $20 at the bare minimum. villain is out of position, the board is dangerous and, as pointed out, hero bet too small to begin with. $22 is probably more appropriate
 
Stu_Ungar

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we bet $6 into $9.50 so there is now $15.50 in the pot. a pot-sized raise means you bet double the player's bet + what's in the pot. raising pot, actually clicking the pot button, would result in a raise to $27.50


Yes it would wouldnt it!! damn i added that up wrong!!!

In that case the bets now look more as the should

Now im putting him more on a KJ, KQ, QJ,KT type hand
 
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