100nl FR: AQ in position, vs Nit, keeps firing

icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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I've been playing like a maniac and have been 3betting at 14% at this table thanks to a nice rush of cards. The villain is a 13/11/3.5 nitty player who cbets 70% and cbets the turn 22% of the time. He keeps betting big and it feels like I'm only possibly ahead of KQ here and it feels rather like a crappy situation. Suggested turn play?

SB: $69.25 (69.3 bb)
BB: $99 (99 bb)
UTG: $21.20 (21.2 bb)
UTG+1: $46.35 (46.4 bb)
MP1: $18.50 (18.5 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $267.50 (267.5 bb)
CO: $121.65 (121.7 bb)
BTN: $81.45 (81.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Q
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A
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3 folds, MP2 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, CO calls $4, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($17) 9
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5
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Q
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(4 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets $11, Hero calls $11, 2 folds

Turn: ($39) 3
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(2 players)
MP2 bets $22, Hero ???
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Meh. Nasty spot. If you call, then bet sizing means you could be playing for stacks on river.

Villain could have overpairs, sets or AQ, KQ, AdKd, QdJd, JdTd. I don't know if a 13/11 opens and fires 2 barrels with weaker draws than that.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.635% 30.85% 08.78% 448 127.50 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 60.365% 51.58% 08.78% 749 127.50 { QQ+, 99, 55, AdKd, AQs, KQs, QdJd, JdTd, AQo, KQo }

I don't like a raise because it mostly folds out worse and gets call by hands that crush us. I don't think folding is horrible, but it does show a ton of respect for villain. If you call turn and villain fires a third barrel, it's a clear fold on a diamond river, and it's a meh, damn, fold on a non diamond river, imo. Unless you know for certain that he bluffs missed flush draws.
 
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ChuckTs

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Folding's just fine. Unless you expect him to barrel JJ-TT (which is possible considering the draws out there), he's just not going to have worse very often. Even if you add those pairs to his range I'm not sure it's a big enough part of his range to change it from a fold to acall.
 
B

bw07507

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The part about this that scares me the most is that villains turn cbet is only 22%. This indicates to me that he is almost never double barrel bluffing and probably is probably going to opt to ch/call JJ-TT here. I think folding is fine.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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The part about this that scares me the most is that villains turn cbet is only 22%. This indicates to me that he is almost never double barrel bluffing and probably is probably going to opt to ch/call JJ-TT here. I think folding is fine.

depends on sample size. turn cbet needs a lot of hands to converge. Also, he may be more willing to double barrel oop than in position.
 
F

feitr

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First thought was to call turn then fold river (mainly coz of how small the turn bet is), but i think folding turn is correct. Nitty player, doesn't cbet that much or double barrel much at all, cbet into 4 players on the flop, fired a complete brick on the turn, so i highly doubt you are ahead here enough to make a call profitable.
 
B

bw07507

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depends on sample size. turn cbet needs a lot of hands to converge. Also, he may be more willing to double barrel oop than in position.

I was watching him during this session and I believe he had like 3k hands on this villain
 
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