[100nl FR] AQ float, double barrel

Villain is a 15/6/3 tag after a few hundred hands, he probably sees me as a similar tag around 13/9/4 or so.

I'm usually repopping this pf obviously, but took a different line...

Likey, no likey?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $29.60
UTG+2: $90.50
MP1: $48
MP2: $63.45
CO: $137.60
Hero (BTN): $111.80
SB: $133.90
BB: $75.05
UTG: $29.10

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
5 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 7 5 K (2 Players)
CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 2 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $10, CO calls $10

River: ($35.50) 8 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $24.50

No likey. If he's played 100 hands with you does he really think you bet 2/3 pot on the turn with a FD instead of seeing a free card? I think you get called by AK (especially if he has the Ad) too often to make this profitable. Of course if he has AK why no reraise on the turn??? Hmmmmm.... still not a big fan.

Of course, I play with the super calling stations at NL25, so my opinion here may be tainted.

Yep I like this float, you have repped the k here (or posibly a set) imo, so hopefully he's good enough to fold a lower pair here. It doesn't look like he has the K as he probably double barrels.

What range are you putting him on that he can fold to this river? This to me looks a lot like villain is holding KJ looking for a cheap showdown. The flush card may allow you to fold away KJ or KQ. But I think without the diamond on the river, you're going to be hard pressed to fold out KQ. And I don't see any other part of his range calling on the turn. Wouldn't 88+ fold to this turn bet?

If this were limit - and hear me out before you knock it, because I think there may be a lesson to learn from LHE - I wouldn't have bet the turn when he checked with the reasoning that most of the time, I'd just get him to fold a worse hand so I'd opt for checking behind on the turn and try to induce a bluff on the river.

Is that an option, here? If not, why? Our "bluffs" have to be targetted at pocket pairs or A7, mostly, unless we have reason to believe he'd fold top pair.

My problem with this hand, if "problem" is the right word, is that we're "bluffing" with what may very well be the best hand. I try to avoid it in limit, because it often only causes me to lose more when behind and win less when ahead.

My approach, ever since picking some stuff up from Ed Miller, is to avoid getting into tough spots. On the turn, I'd be much more comfortable betting 98 or QJ than AQ. I'm therefore more inclined to float with hands like that. AQ, I repop either preflop (as you said, the standard play) or on the flop.

This was an on-the fly play I did while 12-tabling, and although I don't think it's terrible I do think it has a lot of merit to it and is probably +EV.

My simplified thought process during the hand:

pf was just mixup play, though I almost always 3-bet this.

Flop I can float and scare off 99 etc on the turn. If he bets twice and I don't improve (ie A on the turn), then I'm done. If he checks to me, I'm betting every turn card except an ace or queen because then I'd be turning a much more sure winning hand into a bluff.

Turn I follow up with my plan.

River I feel he's on a med pair so I try to bluff him out.

I don't have reason to believe he's folding a king (I don't think he is more than like %10 at best), but I do have reason to believe he doesn't play a king this way very often, which means I'm up against a marginal pair most of the time imo. Aggressiv(ish) players don't check the turn here with KQ or a similar hand very often.

FP, your point has some merit about having the best hand a lot of the time (we're actually a 1.6:1 dog on that flop against his %15 ATS range), but the fact that a NL bet on the river will be a lot harder to call makes me want to end this hand now. His range still contains a lot of hands that beat us but that we can bet out (PPs, weak kings, A7 type hands), and a lot of hands that can still outdraw us (FDs, JT etc), so that gives betting some more merit too.

I'm also balancing my play fairly well with this play since I'm playing this the same way with bluffs, kings and flush draws. Sometimes sets as well, so he'll be pretty lost here and will have a hard time calling down with those marginal hands especially after the flush hits.

I'm not saying I'm right, but I do think I am

Oh, I'm not saying you're wrong. It's easy to calculate how often he needs to have specifically a pocket pair for the river bet to be worth it compared to the pot, of course, and I'll leave that aside.

But I see a lot of people "bluff" the river with AJs when it seems clear to me - coming from limit - that they either have the best hand or they're getting called, so I felt compelled to add those two cents.