re: Poker & [100nl FR] AQ float, double barrel
This was an on-the fly play I did while 12-tabling, and although I don't think it's terrible I do think it has a lot of merit to it and is probably +EV.
My simplified thought process during the hand:
pf was just mixup play, though I almost always 3-bet this.
Flop I can float and scare off 99 etc on the turn. If he bets twice and I don't improve (ie A on the turn), then I'm done. If he checks to me, I'm betting every turn card except an ace or queen because then I'd be turning a much more sure winning hand into a bluff.
Turn I follow up with my plan.
River I feel he's on a med pair so I try to bluff him out.
I don't have reason to believe he's folding a king (I don't think he is more than like %10 at best), but I do have reason to believe he doesn't play a king this way very often, which means I'm up against a marginal pair most of the time imo. Aggressiv(ish) players don't check the turn here with KQ or a similar hand very often.
FP, your point has some merit about having the best hand a lot of the time (we're actually a 1.6:1 dog on that flop against his %15 ATS range), but the fact that a NL bet on the river will be a lot harder to call makes me want to end this hand now. His range still contains a lot of hands that beat us but that we can bet out (PPs, weak kings, A7 type hands), and a lot of hands that can still outdraw us (FDs, JT etc), so that gives betting some more merit too.
I'm also balancing my play fairly well with this play since I'm playing this the same way with bluffs, kings and flush draws. Sometimes sets as well, so he'll be pretty lost here and will have a hard time calling down with those marginal hands especially after the flush hits.
I'm not saying I'm right, but I do think I am