100nl FR; AKs squeeze

Opponents are 14/9 over 200 hands, 26/15 over 50 hands and 13/8 over 536 hands respectively. I'm probably seen as my usual 15/12, maybe a little more aggressive.

Thoughts? Are we happy to stack here?

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $99 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $96.50 (96.5 bb)
UTG+2: $17 (17 bb)
MP1: $28.35 (28.4 bb)
MP2: $189.50 (189.5 bb)
MP3: $66.60 (66.6 bb)
CO: $95 (95 bb)
BTN: $168 (168 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A K
2 folds, MP2 raises to $3.50, MP3 raises to $8, 2 folds, SB calls $7.50, Hero raises to $31, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $23, SB raises to $99 and is all-in, Hero calls $65.50 and is all-in, MP3 calls $35.60 and is all-in

I dunno if I'm happy about it but I'm also not real sure you had a choice

Tygran said:

I dunno if I'm happy about it but I'm also not real sure you had a choice

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lol this

heh, ok, but what about the squeeze and raise size? Do we have to commit ourselves here?

This debate with me and zach goes back forever. I think stacking off with AK preflop isn't a good profitable play. You're looking at calling a 5bet shove ... and you've put in ~35% of your stack in the pot already. Is he really doing his with any hand you're crushing (AQ? AJ? KQ?) - I don't think so. Is he doing this with a hand you're on a flip (QQ, JJ)? Definitely possible. Would he do this with AA or KK where you are crushed? Yup.

Maybe it's the non-gambler in me, but I try to fold when I think I'm probably beat. I also am not as experienced / good as you and other players that i see here at CC at this level, but I am trying to participate in this section of the forums.

I like the squeeze, but I don't think it committed you to the AI call.

My opinion about AK is that it's an unmade hand. When the SB came over the top of you in a 3 way pot it's time to fold.

ChuckTs said:

heh, ok, but what about the squeeze and raise size? Do we have to commit ourselves here?

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I think you could get away with like a $28 4-bet, but I wouldn't go any smaller than that. But once there's a call and a shove, it becomes pretty irrelevant as you're getting like eleventy-billion to one.

How much fold equity do you think we have over MP3's 3-bet? If the answer is more than "none" I think I'm a fan. However, I think once we 4-bet, we're committed here.

dsvw56 said:

I think you could get away with like a $28 4-bet, but I wouldn't go any smaller than that. But once there's a call and a shove, it becomes pretty irrelevant as you're getting like eleventy-billion to one.

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I like this bet size a bit better than $31, in fact I may squeeze with something like $24, as if he shoves then we have a little room to fold. Are we pot committed with the $31? It seems spewy as f@@k to fold, meh! I don't think we beat much he shoves with though, fwiw.

Ya gotta call. Hell they're sooted!

I don't mind stacking with AK but I really hate to be the one calling the all-in. With the $$ in the middle already and villain #2 seemingly ready to come along for the ride, I'd call, but I'm certainly hoping the flop is all pretty diamonds not Aces or Kings.

Hand 0{ AKs }: 42.806%
Hand 1{ JJ+, AKs, AKo }: 57.194%


The call isnt even debatable imo.

True, but what I think is debatable is the action before it...

ChuckTs said:

True, but what I think is debatable is the action before it...

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You wanna flat AK OOP and see a flop? You wanna shove preflop?

No, folding is what I'm getting at.

ChuckTs said:

No, folding is what I'm getting at.

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Is MP3 the 26/15?

yes, stats are in order of position ep-lp

Then I don't see folding as an option then really. You'd pick this up more often than you think, imo.

Seriously, I very rarely see anyone pushing AK pre flop imo at FR. We are crushed here, we certainly do not haver anywhere near 50% equity.

Reads on opponents? Fishy? vp$ip/PFR can only tell so much. If these are decent players, I think this is an easy fold on the end even with this bet size. With the odds you're getting you need a little under 30% (we assume other guy will call behind). I can't find 2 ranges that normal players would stack here that gives us that equity. Even if we go down to JJ+/AK we're only ~24% to win. I'd 3-bet this for less, and fold to the shove. I'd go to like $24 or so. Remember worse hands likely aren't calling despite odds we give them because this basically tells them we're looking to get it in. With all this action, we just have horrible equity in this pot when raised. This is stuff like AA vs. AK vs. AK or even AA vs. KK vs. AK a ton. And despite the odds you're getting, AK doesn't have great equity against those premium hands. Best you could hope for would be like KK vs. QQ vs. AK.

i've never been a fan of getting AKs all in preflop (cept vs short stacks obv) coz most ppl are very rarely willing to play all in preflop with a range that AKs fairs well against.

Anyways, only two options to me. Fold preflop, or squeeze/call shove. You can't squeeze/fold, because pot odds are just too good...you can't raise to something like $24 here and expect folds.

Frankly, i've folded this preflop before because i really just don't want to get involved in a situation where my equity is highly unlikely to be very good/the squeeze probably isn't going to work. Vs fishy opponents i'd probably get it in, but vs decent players with a raise/3bet/cold call i don't think you are picking up the pot often with the squeeze and i don't like the flop decision/equity if called and i hate the equity if one or more of them shove preflop. The only thing that would make me think the squeeze might work, is because the 3 bet came from a 26/15, but with such a small hand sample you can't have much of an idea of his 3 bet range. Suggesting folding preflop might seem quite odd, but oop with a raise/3 bet/cold call is not a situation i think you ever want to be in with AKs unless you are vs fishy players. I really try to advoid shitty positions like this, even if it means i have to lay down a good hand.

EDIT: Well actually i guess squeeze/fold is an option, because with all the all ins your equity is probably complete garbage, but that just seems like a huge spewy leak to me.

Let's say that the $31 raise was the right amount. There is ~$20 in the pot you can win from the squeeze, so it has to work 3/5 times to break even. If called, you are in big trouble when you miss being oop, and either have to c/f or quite potentially spew more chips hoping villain folds a biggish pp because you "rep" AA by shoving flop. If villain/s shove preflop, you can't really get away from the hand, so have to put in $60 more with likely bad equity, or you find it in yourself to fold and throw away $30.

Squeeze more, and you 100% are committed...squeeze less and you decrease already fairly poor FE.

So all in all, i think it is fine to just advoid this situation altogether vs some opponents. It's simply a bad spot to be in.

Please expand on why a raise to $24 has decreased FE. Is JJ suddenly going to be calling this raise when it would fold to a bigger raise? This raise let's them know (yes we're lying, but it's poker ) that we're willing to get it in here.

BUT, now I've changed my mind, this line simply turns our hand into a bluff. This would be a decent opportunity to squeeze with like suited connectors or low pocket pairs, but I guess here we do need to either look to get it in or fold. imo I think this needs to be a fold if those are our options. Look at the ranges again though. People talk about such great pot odds but I still maintain that after the raise here we are not getting the odds we need to stack. What kind of ranges do we put our opponents on to give us good enough equity to stack here? I did the math above, even if we loosen the range up to JJ+/AK we aren't getting the odds we need.

zachvac said:

Please expand on why a raise to $24 has decreased FE. Is JJ suddenly going to be calling this raise when it would fold to a bigger raise? This raise let's them know (yes we're lying, but it's poker ) that we're willing to get it in here.

BUT, now I've changed my mind, this line simply turns our hand into a bluff. This would be a decent opportunity to squeeze with like suited connectors or low pocket pairs, but I guess here we do need to either look to get it in or fold. imo I think this needs to be a fold if those are our options. Look at the ranges again though. People talk about such great pot odds but I still maintain that after the raise here we are not getting the odds we need to stack. What kind of ranges do we put our opponents on to give us good enough equity to stack here? I did the math above, even if we loosen the range up to JJ+/AK we aren't getting the odds we need.

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Yeah I pretty much agree with you completely but I do have a question.

Don't you think that MP3's range is going to be wider than JJ+/AK? He doesn't seem super eager to get it in... he raised/called/called preflop.

I could see this being 99/TT/AQ sometimes...don't you think?

zachvac said:

Please expand on why a raise to $24 has decreased FE. Is JJ suddenly going to be calling this raise when it would fold to a bigger raise? This raise let's them know (yes we're lying, but it's poker ) that we're willing to get it in here.

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if anything, raising to 24$ opens the possibility that you are squeezing an amount that allows you to get away from the hand.

why wouldn't somebody be more likely to call with jj when it is 16 to go, rather than 23 it isn't like anybody thinks "omg he squeezed the min amount, he must have aa so i'm folding". taken to the extremes, shoving from the BB has alot more fold equity than min raising from the BB. obviously the difference btwn 31 and 24 isn't going to be anywhere near as drastic, but it will make a difference for sure.

Otherwise everybody would be squeezing slightly over what is in the pot, instead of the larger "standard" amount.

fold he has aces or kings, or queens