[100nl FR] AK big draw vs nitty regular

Villain is a 10/5/2.6 reg over a good sample size.

Best line?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $101.95
BB: $92
UTG: $128.10
UTG+1: $104
MP: $104.35
CO: $124.50
BTN: $15.50

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $3, 4 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, BB folds, UTG calls $7.50

Flop: ($22) 2 9 J (2 Players)
Hero ...

I lead here for $17. You have controll of the hand at this point and betting here accomplishes lots. We are essentially semi-bluffing here, and while a fold from villian would be nice its not a total trainwreak if we get called.

If we get raised then we re-consider our position in the hand, and without looking deeply at the numbers we should have enough equity to call a shove. Believe it or not but some nitty regs here will stack off with QQ. If we are shoved on though we gotta be looking more at JJ.

Although my play at the table is to lead, no doubt, I'm kinda thinking that check/raising the flop has merit. The downside to it is that it puts us in a very big pickle if he then shoves.

My thinking is that he might bet medium PPs that missed this flop or bluff with other missed speculative hands, but he may also fold those if we checkraise, and then we get max value out of the hands we manage to fold out. It gets even better if he's capable of floating since we then effectively kill that weapon in his arsenal as well.

... and if he checks behind on the flop? Not a bad result for us either; our equity isn't "wohoo"-awesome, so if we get a free card, we're often the ones that benefit from it.

I'm not suggesting it as a default play, but I think it's an interesting idea. Or?

IF we check-raise and he shoves, then we certainly have a very very easy decision to make FP, its a very standard call considering the pot/stack-size ratio's.

If we lead and he raises then essentially we have our pickle, withir we want to play for stacks can be very read dependant, especially if we have a lot of stats on the villian.

If we get floated its the same arguement for checking for the free card, a turn card is more likely to be more helpful to us than to him, and if we are perpared to double barrell this then essentially that also takes the weapon of the float away from him.

I think I like my PF 3-bet to be a tad on the larger side, since we don't want to play a hand like AK OOP. Say, $12-14? But then again, his raising range from UTG may not include AQ or AJ, which is really the hands we hope to get value out of here by raising. Idk, I think you could really make an argument for either raising bigger, or just calling given his image of you. If he thinks you're a bit too aggro, then I'd be inclined to just call and see a flop. If he thinks you're a big nit as well, then I'd bump it up to $14 and really try to take command of the hand.

Postflop, we've got 9 super clean outs, plus up to 6 outs with our over cards. If he's playing AQ or KK, our over cards only give us 3 outs.

I think I'd have to poker stove it, and his range is probably rock tight from UTG. If we're 45% or so against his range, I think the best way to get our stack in is to bet/3bet. There's not quite enough in the pot to check/raise him all in without looking fishy (another argument for 3-betting bigger). If we're less than 40% equity or so against AQs, TT+ then I think we've got a real tricky decision.

Also, do you think 99 is in his UTG raising range? You didn't give him odds to draw to a set, so I think we can exclude it from his range if he's a smart player.

/me votes for leading ~$16.

tenbob said:

and if we are perpared to double barrell this

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What hands do you think he floats us with that we can fold out with a 2nd barrel on the turn? QQ? TT?

Lead with a small blocking bet of $11, villain may then:

-fold if a weak player that missed the flop (i.e. a missed his set)
-call if a weak player that thinks $11 is fine to call in order to possibly hit something
-call if also on a draw (very unlikely here)
-raise to find out where they are in the hand..puts out $22-$33..maybe overbets to $44.
-makes a hard push, raising $60 to all-in

Of all the above, only the hard push gets me to fold and go lick my wounds (good play/read by the villain). I actually hope for the $22-$33 raise at which point I go back over the top all-in. You then can win by villain folding, or you have a great draw with two overs and the nut flush.

I'm basically looking for the most leverage here. I think his range is basically a good chunk of pairs (some for set value, some slowplayed) and probably AK too, so betting does a lot for us by folding out AK and the smaller non-set pairs.

I think considering our stacks sizes in relation to the pot size a bet is best. Check-raising is something I'd go for if we had effective stacks of like $60 after the flop, but a CRAI is too much for what we have now. If we ch-r to like $50 then we lose a lot of leverage if he shoves over the top. If we bet and he calls, we lose leverage too...

I bet $14.50 trying to induce a raise, he calls

Turn comes T

Hero...

ChuckTs said:

Turn comes T

Hero...

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We've got 4 new outs. If we check, we're pretty much committed to checking the river if we miss our draw. With another 4 clean outs, I think I 2-barrel this river. We can't really afford to get raised though, since we only have about 30% equity in the pot right now.

So at this point, we have two options:

1) Try to get the right price to hit our draw & give up.
2) Try to make a bet that ends the hand.

The pot is 51$, and we have ~$76 left.

This is not a pretty spot. Shoving here still looks fishy. Check/raising gives us little to no fold equity. Any bet commits us.

I'd either bet something as a blocking bet, or check/fold this. Unless you've got some reads that he floats a pretty wide range on the flop, I think we can assume we're beat most of the time.

Argh, I can't make up my mind. His range after the call on the flop is mostly pairs. The pairs that would fold to a turn bet will prolly check behind here. >_< I hate these spots. This would probably come down to reads for me. And in reality, in this situation, I almost always just shove ^_^

This is a tough spot...if you check you are basically conceding the hand. Why would villain only call the bet? If villain is any kind of player they would have either folded or raised to see where they are in the hand.

Given the pre-flop raise/call and the 2.6, followed by a smooth call on the flop, villain has QQ and JJ is our monster under the bed. We can't honestly put villain on calling a re-raise to $10.50 with a lesser flush or draw hand, especially given the 10/5/2.6.

With 9 flush outs, 6 over outs, and now 4 straight outs (still counting them) and given what is in the pot, I keep the initiative and push all-in. Sure it may look like a semi-bluff but it adds pressure for villain to fold. They have to consider their one pair might not be good, even if they hold AA (not crediting villain with this hand being in range given you hold AK, but it is not impossible).

ChuckTs said:

I'm basically looking for the most leverage here. I think his range is basically a good chunk of pairs (some for set value, some slowplayed) and probably AK too, so betting does a lot for us by folding out AK and the smaller non-set pairs.

I think considering our stacks sizes in relation to the pot size a bet is best. Check-raising is something I'd go for if we had effective stacks of like $60 after the flop, but a CRAI is too much for what we have now. If we ch-r to like $50 then we lose a lot of leverage if he shoves over the top. If we bet and he calls, we lose leverage too...

I bet $14.50 trying to induce a raise, he calls

Turn comes T

Hero...

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Wait, are you betting to induce a raise that you can then shove into? I might like it if I know what assumptions you're making about his range after his raise.

Well I'm not saying what I bet that flop correctly. I was 12-tabling 100nl again so I didn't have much time to think too in-depth about this hand or his range, hence the thread.

If I take a look at his range now it's probably 88+, AK, but 88/99 will often be hands he'll fold pf since he's barely getting odds. So basically we're looking at sets, TT, overpairs, or AK. Considering that range, the only hands that are raising that flop are a set or an overpair, so we're really not in great shape against that range, not to mention having zero fold equity.

But my basic reasoning in the hand was that I had fold equity over some hands, even overpairs, if I bet-3bet or bet-push, and that I had good equity in the pot even if called.

tenbob said:

I lead here for $17. You have controll of the hand at this point and betting here accomplishes lots. We are essentially semi-bluffing here, and while a fold from villian would be nice its not a total trainwreak if we get called.

If we get raised then we re-consider our position in the hand, and without looking deeply at the numbers we should have enough equity to call a shove. Believe it or not but some nitty regs here will stack off with QQ. If we are shoved on though we gotta be looking more at JJ.

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LOL. I've been called a "nitty reg" before, so I tried to think how I would play as the villian.

Why would a shove with QQ be a "stack off"? ("Stack off" means to shove and lose, right?) If I had QQ I would definitely overbet the pot here to obliterate any kind of odds on any of the draws. Not a shove, but maybe $60. If I still get called and lose, I would still feel like I made the right move and the Hero made a bad decision against odds. I would feel extra good if one of my Q's was a club.

I don't think I'd call the flop action with AJ or AQ. I'd say QQ, JJ, TT, 99 are all possible. Being nitty, I fold 88 or lower to that flop action.

MrSticker said:

Why would a shove with QQ be a "stack off"? ("Stack off" means to shove and lose, right?)

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Stack off just means to play the hand for stacks, not necessarily to lose the hand.

SeanyJ said:

Stack off just means to play the hand for stacks, not necessarily to lose the hand.

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Cool, thanks.

I put in a blocking bet of 1/2 pot ($25) in this spot. It serves a couple of purposes. If shoved on we will have a tough decision to make, but, it also gives us the information we need. If you haven't stepped out of line then a river bet tells villain that you are strong and it is doubtful that they would reraise without a monster. If you check then I fire with QQ+, and maybe even AQ+. This is really marginal, but with the fold equity that we have I lead again.

I think he has 1010 or QQ. AK and AQ would fold on that flop, JJ and 99 would probably raise, 88-22 would probably fold pf and would definetly fold on this flop. So on the turn you have 13 outs against pocket tens and 19 outs against QQ, and neither of those hands would fold on the turn, so I would check and call if you're getting the right odds (and you probably will be getting the odds you need with so many outs)

Well I ended up botching this hand big-time. I nearly timed out on the turn with several other hands running at the same time, and ended up just shoving the rest of my stack in. He called with 99 and it held.

Good points guys. I've thought about this a little, and against his range I really doubt we're folding anything out of his range with a turn bet except TT which is a tiny part of his range since he's folding it most of the time on the flop.

His range is weighted towards sets and overpairs here and by checking the turn I'm basically representing AK or an odd trap with AA/KK or something. By checking we actually might see a free river card since overpairs will occasionally check behind for pot control and sets will occasionally slowplay. Just a nasty spot because I've lost all FE and leverage in the hand. Thanks for the responses