re: Poker & [100nl FR] AK big draw vs nitty regular
I think I like my PF 3-bet to be a tad on the larger side, since we don't want to play a hand like AK OOP. Say, $12-14? But then again, his raising range from UTG may not include AQ or AJ, which is really the hands we hope to get value out of here by raising. Idk, I think you could really make an argument for either raising bigger, or just calling given his image of you. If he thinks you're a bit too aggro, then I'd be inclined to just call and see a flop. If he thinks you're a big nit as well, then I'd bump it up to $14 and really try to take command of the hand.
Postflop, we've got 9 super clean outs, plus up to 6 outs with our over cards. If he's playing AQ or KK, our over cards only give us 3 outs.
I think I'd have to poker stove it, and his range is probably rock tight from UTG. If we're 45% or so against his range, I think the best way to get our stack in is to bet/3bet. There's not quite enough in the pot to check/raise him all in without looking fishy (another argument for 3-betting bigger). If we're less than 40% equity or so against AQs, TT+ then I think we've got a real tricky decision.
Also, do you think 99 is in his UTG raising range? You didn't give him odds
to draw to a set, so I think we can exclude it from his range if he's a smart player.
/me votes for leading ~$16.