[100nl FR] 77 facing 5bet shove in BvB

No history whatsover as i sat at the table 10 hands earlier. Villain is a reg who displays his supernova status and must believe I'm a sunday afternon fish as he got no hands on me (I just moved up to 100nl).

Do we call or fold ?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $127.05 (127.1 bb)
MP3: $123.80 (123.8 bb)
CO: $117.15 (117.2 bb)
BTN: $114.55 (114.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $101 (101 bb)
UTG+1: $18.50 (18.5 bb)
MP1: $114.35 (114.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 7 7
7 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB raises to $15, Hero raises to $35, BB raises to $100 and is all-in, Hero ???

BelgoSuisse said:

[100nl FR] 77 facing 5bet shove in BvB

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Fold.

Punch desk. Fold.

Quicker than an origami champion.

Cuss, punch the time button, cuss some more.....fold!

What range do you put villain on to justify this fold? We only need 33% equity to make the call correct. And as soon as villain's range includes some non pocket pairs we get that

If he shoves AK, calling is fine unless he shoves 88-TT

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.308% 33.13% 00.18% 136129056 750132.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 66.692% 66.51% 00.18% 273323640 750132.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

If he shoves AQ, calling is always correct

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.858% 65.63% 00.22% 498992520 1701966.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 34.142% 33.92% 00.22% 257866524 1701966.00 { 77 }

Also, if he shoves AK, calling is never a big mistake even in the worst case scenario where he also shoves 88+.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.301% 71.07% 00.23% 423480900 1388142.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 28.699% 28.47% 00.23% 169624608 1388142.00 { 77 }

The only case where calling is hugely -EV is when villain is only shoving with overpairs.

I think the point is not so much whether calling is profitable, but whether or not you should have 4bet in the first place. He 3bet to such a size that any 4bet you put in (including your small $35) will commit you to calling a shove knowing you'll be in poor shape, although getting decent odds on a call.

Like if we raise to $99 pf and he shoves his last $1 in, we call %100 of the time regardless of his range, but raising $99 in the first place is incorrect.

ChuckTs said:

I think the point is not so much whether calling is profitable, but whether or not you should have 4bet in the first place. He 3bet to such a size that any 4bet you put in (including your small $35) will commit you to calling a shove knowing you'll be in poor shape, although getting decent odds on a call.

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Good point, so you would flat his 3bet instead?

I dunno I'm not in the FR mentality anymore, but I think folding is probably best. Flatting is spewy since he'll basically own you with position.

I think with a hand like this we should be raising to $3 preflop, then making our move based on that. Calling his 3bet will be more reasonable (but probably still wrong if he raises anywhere over $10), but now 4betting is cheaper and gives us a chance to get away if shoved on.

ChuckTs said:

I dunno I'm not in the FR mentality anymore

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FR is irrelevant here. For all practical matters we are HU.

BelgoSuisse said:

FR is irrelevant here. For all practical matters we are HU.

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Except that it's a table of FR players in the FR mentality.

Your distribution in Pokerstove assumes equal distribution of hands. While he may well have that range, he's proportionately shoving the big pairs more than the AKs I think.

No need for the 4 bet as Chuck says, folding to the 3 bet is fine, you're oop and in a sticky postflop, more often than not.

I really think you guys are nits. A reg with enough ego to display his supernova status has a huge 3bet range in the first BvB situation with a player that is unknown to him. I'm pretty sure 77 is clearly ahead of his 3betting range.

FWIW, I called the 5bet shove...

Villain has Q3o.

If you really think it, then it must be true.

If it's nitty not to get in a situation where I'm committed with 77 for my 100bb stack, then yep guilty as charged.

Other issue is what happens when he flats the 4 bet and you're faced with a horrible flop situation? Even with any two he's got the drop on you.

I know, Rex, my play is a bit spewy indeed.

What really surprised me is villain's play. I googled him. He's not supernova. He's supernova elite and 24 tables 100-200nl. I'm an unknown to him, so I assume this is his standard play in this situation. Does that make any sense?

EDIT: actually I'm not sure he's SNE yet, but he did get SN status after only 18 days in 2008.

Might be that against an unknown he's looking to make a -EV move in order to get huge long-term metagame advantage.

Or he's an idiot.

Could go either way

Irexes said:

Might be that against an unknown he's looking to make a -EV move in order to get huge long-term metagame advantage.

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thinking about long-term metagame against someone he may never cross again?

Irexes said:

Or he's an idiot.

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if that was the case, he'd need to be an extremely wealthy idiot in order to afford playing so much.

I actually think he believes the move is immediately profitable and i would really like to understand why.

There's some really bad SNEs out there who spew like crazy and play with their egos. I think the 4 bet obsession is resulting in crazy spews.

Qxo is the new nuts.

Interesting thoughts Belgo. I'd be curious to know his more representative stats. Not that I'm planning to play that level anytime soon.

NineLions said:

Qxo is the new nuts.

Interesting thoughts Belgo. I'd be curious to know his more representative stats. Not that I'm planning to play that level anytime soon.

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I don't have enough hands on him, but Irexes said he would post villain's stats in this thread. He says his notes on him are

Heh, my notes say solid, loosens up versus fish but tight v solid players.

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I guess that means I'm a super-fish if he loosens up to the point of shoving Q3o...

Will post when I finish the session

BelgoSuisse said:

I don't have enough hands on him, but Irexes said he would post villain's stats in this thread. He says his notes on him are



I guess that means I'm a super-fish if he loosens up to the point of shoving Q3o...

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Maybe you gotta stop displaying your bronze star status, like Rex's friend in the Oct thread.

villain's sn? (feel free to put xx in so he can't google his name).

rennwxxxx