[100nl FR] 666 bottom set

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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On the river, should we plan to check/call, bet/fold or bet/call ? Also, comments on line, bet sizing ?

Villain is 23/11/1 over 60 hands. WTSD is 18% over 11 samples.


Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (MP2): $128.80 (128.8 bb)
MP3: $17.50 (17.5 bb)
CO: $62.85 (62.9 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
SB: $92.60 (92.6 bb)
BB: $85.40 (85.4 bb)
UTG+2: $106.50 (106.5 bb)
MP1: $20 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with 6
spade.gif
6
heart.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 4 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 6
club.gif
4
diamond.gif
K
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($19.50) A
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB calls $14

River: ($47.50) 7
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?
 
zachvac

zachvac

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Like to see how you can pull of a check-call here now, I guess you've just got better skills than me ;).

But in all seriousness I think we have to bet because we get a ton of hands to call us. The only question is what if we get raised. Against such a passive player a fold may be possible but know that first off he'll have the backdoor flush very rarely and will think the same for you. Others may raise as a bluff but I doubt this guy does. I think you can find a fold just because AK is basically the only hand he check-raises for value against you and you have shown a pretty strong line here.

So yeah I think bet-fold but expect to be raised near .00001% of the time.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Like to see how you can pull of a check-call here now, I guess you've just got better skills than me ;).

oops, my bad. :embarasse

So yeah I think bet-fold but expect to be raised near .00001% of the time.

bet sizing considering he's only 85bb deep?
 
zachvac

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Even if he's not deep I make it like $20-25 here just so he can make a crying call with his Ax on a scary board.
 
ChuckTs

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I bet and call a shove. There's like two combos of KJc/KQc that hit their redraw, and a ton more combos of two pair hands that have slowplayed or hit the river. River check-raises are rarely bluffs, but I think he's value raising with lots of worse hands.
 
The Shrog

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Am I missing something? Don't we just value bet the river as well...as the only hands that would have improved would be a backdoor flush and a 53?
 
zachvac

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Am I missing something? Don't we just value bet the river as well...as the only hands that would have improved would be a backdoor flush and a 53?

Yeah but the board got scarier and his range for value raising river got super-small.
 
BelgoSuisse

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River action

Ok, so everybody wants to be, and so do I. So river goes as follows:

Villain checks, Hero bets $36, Villain raises to $61.90, and is all in, Hero ?


Zach above sees a fold, although he bets smaller so pot odds are not the same. Chuck says it's a call. What do we do?
 
ChuckTs

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Call.

:)

Slowplayed AA/KK/backdoor flush ftw?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Slowplayed AA/KK/backdoor flush ftw?

KQ backdoor flush ftw, yes. :eek:

I don't know if villain ever raises less than the nuts here, but of course if he does than combos compel us to call. And anyway, calling can only be a small mistake given stack sizes while folding the best hand here would be a big one, so i probably shouldn't second guess it and then ask mods to move this to BBV. :D

A bit more concerned about my bet sizing on river. If I make it a little smaller, i might get more calls from lesser hands and i do open the door to bet folding. Not sure.
 
zachvac

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ok well I'm going to test out pokerazor, since I just downloaded it.

First off, preflop hand. He calls with 23%. I made sure all PPs were included and adjusted the other ones to get it to a 22.8% range. We can take out AA/KK and probably AK. Be nice to know villain's 3-bet range to be sure on this, especially with hands like AK/QQ/JJ. Just for this sake I'll leave AKo in and assume he 3-bets AKs.

QQ-22, AQ-A9, A8s-A7s, AKo, K9+, K8s-K7s, QT+, Q9s-Q8s, JT, J9s, T9s

Pretty drawy flop, so I say villain will float with:

A high, any pair other than underpair, 2 pair, or a set. Although he should be raising a set here he should also be raising anything else that takes this entire line (including river C/R) that isn't a backdoor flush draw, which isn't that likely.

Turn we'll give villain TP or better, still including flush draws.

Then river comes, and say villain pulls the C/R with: sets, 2-pair, and flushes.

Of course the Pokerazor is crap and won't let me view anything to do with after the river raise.

Note if what I said is true we still are good 93.42% of the time before the raise. But we could manually do all that stuff but I'm too lazy now especially when I thought this big powerful program would do it for me before. Basically I just see this as pretty exclusively AK/sets/flushes. Even though I included 2 pair in there I still think A6/A7/K7 may even just flat river. I don't know I just think that's such a narrow range that we're rarely ahead here, even though the range that beats us is so small as well. Also against a more aggro villain we can call I think.
 
B

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I bet and call a shove. There's like two combos of KJc/KQc that hit their redraw, and a ton more combos of two pair hands that have slowplayed or hit the river. River check-raises are rarely bluffs, but I think he's value raising with lots of worse hands.

This (imo).
 
bubbasbestbabe

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This type of play drives me nuts when I play. I usually make the mistake of checking back at him.

I would call. Why would villain check on the turn if he has AK? If he has K Q there and you betting out it would seem to me that when the A drops it should give him pause. The one thing that pings in my mind is the str8 draw, that seems plausible to be chasing. (but that's me with suckout mentality) ;)
 
zachvac

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vpip =/= cold calling range...


ok true. I have a very hard time putting a 23/11 on a range for cold calling preflop. It's sort of like trying to put someone on a range for flatting a 3-bet oop, since I pretty much never do that myself lol. I do think though that a huge amount of his range is being flatted here though.
 
F Paulsson

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The only thing you absolutely CANNOT do is check back the river. Yeah, it'll suck when he raises you because you will be lost, but his raising range is completely dwarfed by his calling range and the amount of money you gain by betting will more than make up for any mistake you may make if you get raised.

"I don't know what to do if raised" can be an argument for checking back, but then the value bet has to be thin to begin with and/or the stacks left behind very deep. Let's for the sake of argument say that he has 20 combos in his range that he's willing to continue with - so we're not counting diamonds that missed etc - and let's say that he raises 4 of these (backdoor flush, Ad7d and let's say weirdly played KK, discounted from 3 combos to 1 by account of him not 3-betting preflop), then you have the following situation:

If you bet X, leaving some amount Y left in your stack, then he will call X 80% of the time, and raise you Y 20% of the time. You can always beat him when he calls you (he doesn't just call with anything better). If, as is the case here, X is somewhat equal to Y ($36 to $25, yes?), it's easy to see that it doesn't matter so much what you do once you're raised. Betting will make you so much money that you're in some sense "freerolling" when he does checkraise. And I think 80/20 is a very paranoid estimate of how often he'll checkraise the river.

If your river bet is small compared to the amount of money that is left behind, you could find yourself in a situation where betting wouldn't be profitable. But that's not the case here, and you can just bet for value and snapcall for a good night's sleep.
 
zachvac

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FP I see what you're saying, but I disagree with the freerolling logic. Sure if we take the line bet/call river it cannot ever be worse than checking behind, but that's not the goal in poker. The goal in poker is to MAXIMIZE our ev. Maybe calling is better, I don't know, but this logic is basically similar to say we bet turn denying villain implied odds to chase a flush. The flush card hits river and passive villain open shoves. While sure overall the bet turn call river line is profitable even if he does it with nothing but flushes, it's more profitable to bet turn and fold to obvious flush or just value bet again with your set/TP/whatever if either it misses or he doesn't open shove and we think there's value. See what I'm saying?
 
F Paulsson

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edit: Uh, scratch this post for awhile, I need to figure out what hand I'm discussing and I'm not sure I did when I posted.
 
F Paulsson

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Okay, now I know what hand we're discussing. My first reply confused it with another:

FP I see what you're saying, but I disagree with the freerolling logic. Sure if we take the line bet/call river it cannot ever be worse than checking behind, but that's not the goal in poker. The goal in poker is to MAXIMIZE our ev. Maybe calling is better, I don't know, but this logic is basically similar to say we bet turn denying villain implied odds to chase a flush. The flush card hits river and passive villain open shoves. While sure overall the bet turn call river line is profitable even if he does it with nothing but flushes, it's more profitable to bet turn and fold to obvious flush or just value bet again with your set/TP/whatever if either it misses or he doesn't open shove and we think there's value. See what I'm saying?

Sure, and I agree with that. I'm just saying that betting the river is profitable even if we call the river shove KNOWING that he drew out. It might not maximize value (although I think it does, here) but if I can show that we make less money by checking back than we do if we first bet, then he turns his cards up and shows a flush, shoves, and we call anyway, then there cannot really be any argument as to whether or not we should bet in the first place.

We make money by betting. Then we might make another decision, and if we get that one right - great. If we get it wrong - aw, shucks. But whether or not we get the second decision right matters much, much less than getting the first one right: Betting the river. That was my point.
 
BelgoSuisse

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But whether or not we get the second decision right matters much, much less than getting the first one right: Betting the river. That was my point.

And that is a great point.

Oh, and Zach, you got it right this time, but i do think the reason your NSD as so much lower than mine is really that you're bet/folding a lot in these spots, and that might actually be a minor leak in your game because sometimes people do reraise with less than the nuts.
 
V

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I'm with Zach on this one. I don't see the river completing any hands that are weaker than ours. If he had two pair before the river, it's pretty likely that he'd raise with all those draws on the board. So I'm putting his "weaker than ours" range as one pair type hands, so I think a smaller bet like $20 would be best. Then once he raises, I'd fold in a heartbeat. He's just not aggressive, and cold calling several sizable bets followed by a river check-raise is a VERY aggressive play.
 
zachvac

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Oh, and Zach, you got it right this time, but i do think the reason your NSD as so much lower than mine is really that you're bet/folding a lot in these spots, and that might actually be a minor leak in your game because sometimes people do reraise with less than the nuts.

Of course they do. Not saying you're wrong, it's possible that is a leak of mine, but I'm not going to ever do anything to correct my NSD line or SD line. I'll be doing it to correct the money line. Also the heavy majority of players are literally incapable of bluff raising rivers. I don't give anyone credit to be able to do that unless they're a reg I've seen do it before (or of course are just a super-aggro fish who bet-bet-bets regardless of handreading and such). So in these spots the calculation we have to do is how our hand does against a value raising range. We're clearly behind here. Against an aggro villain we snapcall. Against a reg capable of bluff raising this we call expecting to at least have odds to call. But from the reads I just don't see villain capable of pulling a river bluff on this board, and his value raising range just crushes us. Actually maybe I'll look up on some hands where I bet-fold river and post them here. Of course that implies I can figure out how the hell that HEM street-by-street action thing works. Does bet raise mean hero 3-bets on a street or hero bets and villain raises? I still remember seeing it and thinking how awesome it'd be to play with once I figured out how it worked. Still haven't figured that out.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Of course they do. Not saying you're wrong, it's possible that is a leak of mine, but I'm not going to ever do anything to correct my NSD line or SD line.

i'm not saying you should correct those, obviously. We only care about the green line. Just that the fact our lines look so different is probably for a large part due to that fact, and while it probably mostly means i sux at the pokerz and call too much, i might also mean you sometimes fold too much. Well, at least by calling i get to see villain's card and learn. :D Which is actually why i call when i think the decision is marginal. Want to learn.

Of course that implies I can figure out how the hell that HEM street-by-street action thing works. Does bet raise mean hero 3-bets on a street or hero bets and villain raises? I still remember seeing it and thinking how awesome it'd be to play with once I figured out how it worked. Still haven't figured that out.

I think it's just "Filter by River Actions" and you select "Bet Fold".
 
BelgoSuisse

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Not very deep, but villain here is a 37/5 fish with 20% aggression frequency. Obviously early streets suck, but would this be a bet/fold on river with trips instead of a boat?

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $20 (20 bb)
MP3: $58.35 (58.4 bb)
CO: $24.60 (24.6 bb)
BTN: $79.25 (79.3 bb)
SB: $101.15 (101.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $123.90 (123.9 bb)
UTG+1: $71.85 (71.9 bb)
UTG+2: $32.95 (33 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 8
heart.gif
6
diamond.gif

5 folds, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) 8
diamond.gif
K
diamond.gif
8
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($2.50) 3
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $4

River: ($12.50) 6
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $18.60 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.60

Results: $49.70 pot ($2.45 rake)
CO showed 9
spade.gif
9
diamond.gif
(two pairs, Nines and Eights) and lost (-$24.60 net)
Hero showed 8
heart.gif
6
diamond.gif
(a full house, Eights full of Sixes) and won $47.25 ($22.65 net)
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Not very deep, but villain here is a 37/5 fish with 20% aggression frequency. Obviously early streets suck, but would this be a bet/fold on river with trips instead of a boat?

BTW, i have no clue if villain is bluff raising or raising for value here.
 
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