[100nl FR] 33 i/p river?

What is my best line here on the river. Does my 33 have s/d value, what do we put villain on, betting river value/bluff?

Villain is pretty juicy 42/15/1.7 over 47 hands. Me tag as usual.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $97
UTG+2: $248.70
MP1: $56.75
Hero (MP2): $104.20
CO: $54.80
BTN: $97.65
SB: $101
BB: $26.75
UTG: $62.20

Pre-Flop: 3 3 dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3, MP1 folds, Hero calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5 8 2 (2 Players)
UTG+2 bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($19.50) 5 (2 Players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $13.50, UTG+2 calls $13.50

River: ($46.50) 4 (2 Players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero?

His preflop raising range doesn't contain a lot of deuces, so if he has a pair, we're almost certainly behind. Will he call the turn and river with ace-high, is what you're asking? He might, but unless you've been bluffing a lot with missed draws recently, I'd take the showdown. I don't think you're good a requisite >50% of the time that he calls a bet on the river, mostly because there are more combos of 66-JJ than there are of AK.

you're probably beat but just check. trying to push a 42/15 off a pocket pair on this board is not a profitable play. and he's almost never calling with A-high. betting would pretty clearly be a bluff not a value bet, but neither are warranted here

Oh yeah, and he's not likely to fold anything that beats what we have. Maybe A-4, but that's really it (and he might even look us up with that).

Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?

i could bluff here vs. the right player, with the right image. like you said, the draws got there, and it's not impossible for us to have a full house either. but most players who hate folding preflop hate folding postflop too, so i'm not going to try to make this guy fold a pair on a board like this

c9h13no3 said:

Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?

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Danger is, you could be representing a hand that your opponent actually has. Hard to think of a hand that is currently beating us but would fold to a bet, so i'd just check and see if my 3's were good.

c9h13no3 said:

Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?

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Not "just" because of his stats, but it's a large contributing factor. The other factor is really just board texture and value we get from a bluff. Most of his folding range are unimproved overcards, and what we need is for him to fold pocket pairs. Most of the pocket pairs that didn't hit a full house are going to be overpairs to this board. It's just not a very good board for bluffing.

Well to finish this one off. My thoughts here were my 33 doesnt have much sd value. He seems to be quite weak with the chk/call on the turn. Now I'm thinking I may get him to fold some hands better than mine with a decent bet. As you guys have rightly said, he doesn't fold much on the river.... I opts to bet just over 1/2 pot and he calls and turn's over A9o.

Jagsti said:

As you guys have rightly said, he doesn't fold much on the river.... I opts to bet just over 1/2 pot and he calls and turn's over A9o.

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Obviously value-towning ace high should have been considered as another reason to bet :O