100NL deep set

Villian is playing like 38/26/4, LAG though decent player and is making profit over (started at $100, not $200) Im playing very tag like 14/10 so im waiting for spots like this to make some money....hmmmmm.....

full tilt poker Game #8487644114: Table Inez (deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:19:21 ET - 2008/10/14
Seat 1: IveArrived ($200)
Seat 2: peidude69 ($80.70)
Seat 4: BDMACHINE11 ($218.60)
Seat 5: Andyexpat ($105.60), is sitting out
Seat 6: hot-vit-lon ($47.75), is sitting out
Seat 7: IWILLBLUFFYU ($119.10)
Seat 8: sini2010 ($193)
Seat 9: nsrafk ($119)
IWILLBLUFFYU is sitting out
sini2010 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IveArrived [6h 6s]
IWILLBLUFFYU stands up
nsrafk raises to $3
IveArrived calls $3
peidude69 folds
BDMACHINE11 folds
sini2010 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [5c 6d Qs]
sini2010 checks
nsrafk checks
IveArrived checks
*** TURN *** [5c 6d Qs] [2d]
sini2010 bets $7
nsrafk folds
sharkmedlock sits down
sharkmedlock adds $200
IveArrived has 15 seconds left to act
IveArrived raises to $21
sini2010 has 15 seconds left to act
sini2010 calls $14
*** RIVER *** [5c 6d Qs 2d] [5h]
sini2010 checks
?????


Ok so why did I check flop, I should have bet I know, omgggg it slipped my mind here~~~ god. Smallish 3 bet on turn is ok I guess could have made it 25-26. He checks the river which makes me think he was weak, but his stats say he will call a river bet prolly....right? His response is funny at the end of this hand.

Btw I know i should bet here, im mainly asking how much would *you* bet here, in the way it played out, and the villians stats.

Not betting this flop is baaaaaad.

On the river, I think you can make an argument for any bet size from 1/3 pot to a shove. Do you have any history of how he handles river bets?

I probably bet a little shy of pot on the river, maybe $40, for three reasons:

1. His range contains missed draws. They won't really call any river bet.
2. You want to sell this off as a bluff. A small bet looks like it wants to be called, and is therefore - ironically - often less likely to be called. This is also the betsize I'd pick when actually bluffing with a hand like 78, so it balances out a bit.
3. Your stacks are deep enough that he might think he has fold equity for a check/raise bluff. This is a key factor.

You're hoping to get called by AQ. You're hoping he'll checkraise-bluff you with air (or A-5!) and you're somewhat balancing your bluffs with your strong hands.

The value in getting him to checkraise-bluff you on the river is so great that had the stacks been shorter my riverbet would have been smaller. He doesn't have to do it often for that to be very profitable.

Bet the same amount you raised to on the turn.

You would never do something suspicious like undrbet the pot with a monster right? That five scared you and you are too lazy to bet more than 21 again.

They are only calling with Qx 5 or pockets anyway right? I say go for the reverse reverse psychology!

Checking the flop is not a bad play. It's a rainbow flop and a straight draw that chances are your opponents are not chasing. I like the bet on the turn. It's probably enough to chase out the flush chaser but not too much to scare anyone with top pair or two pair. I would make a big bet here. He obviosuly has something and will probably call judging by his reraise on the turn. I would bet about $20-$25 here. The pot is already at a good amount and you'll be giving your opponent pot odds to call.

t1riel said:

He obviosuly has something and will probably call judging by his reraise on the turn. .

Click to expand...

He didn't re-raise the turn, he called.

robwhufc said:

He didn't re-raise the turn, he called.

Click to expand...

Sorry about that. I would still make the $20-25 bet on the river.

Raise turn larger, bet river for largish. I'm with FP on this one.