100NL deep AA in family pot vs agg reg.

Everyone except villian is unknown(less than 50 hands mostly 30/10 type). Villian is 22/16/10.1 over 700 hands. 8% 3bet, 16% went to showdown, 54% won at showdown. 73% fold to flop. does a flush check this river from a reg? We take this to valuetown and push? Should I have folded turn since it seems he was setting up a good push bet size?

Hand within the first 15 minutes at table. Dont recall when I played villain but im usually around 24/20

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $50 (50 bb)
CO: $110.55 (110.6 bb)
BTN: $114.40 (114.4 bb)
SB: $240.90 (240.9 bb)
BB: $46.35 (46.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $199.80 (199.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with A A
MP posts BB out of position, Hero raises to $4, MP calls $3, CO calls $4, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3

Flop: ($20) 5 T 9 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $14, MP folds, CO folds, SB raises to $38, BB folds, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($96) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero calls $45

River: ($186) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero???

I shove in my last $160 wicked fast. And I jammy whammy the flop too, its way too drawy to be playing passively IMO, especially against a guy with a 10 AF.

Well my main reasoning, not always correct, for flatting is that there arent many hands he has that calls a push that im beating. Looking back plenty of draws are doing this, he was getting like 50:1 preflop so plenty of QJ 87 hands that check raise here and betting is the right move regardless of his reaction obviously if thats the case.

EDIT:I think 3 betting here pretty much turns our hand face up and we can only expect a mistake form villian. He seemed very aggressive but still pretty solid and I didnt expect a poor call from him, but very possible a bet on any turn with any hand. I think pushing the turn has more merit than flop considering villian here.

Flatting flop is fine...if you get AA all in on the flop 200bbs deep vs a non-retard reg you are in big trouble and in a big multiway pot like this sets/2 pairs are likely. I'd absolutely hate a 3bet call shove here unless you know villain is very very spewy.

I think you can value shove the river here. Villain isn't ever checking a flush here as there is no reason to think you'll vbet this river. 87 is the one hand i'd be scared about, but villain's range is probably weighted enough towards smaller sets/2 pair hands that shoving is easily the best move here. I can't see 87 ever checking this river either, as you obviously never have a flush here ever.

I think u can bet here all inn.. I think that sb makes three of a kind or two pair on the flop... On the river he checks because te spade is dangerous for him.. U make on river three of a kind and that is here for sure the best hand He haves no flush here!

So I agree with the hand range assessment, disagree with the river shove. If he's checking to control the pot he's hardly going to call a shove. On the other hand we can value bet less than stack and make him feel he has to pay off what he thinks could be a made flush. Obviously if we value bet we have to call a shove because bluffs make up way more of his range at that point than a C/R on the river with a straight or flush. I'd bet ~$50 on this river.

I kinda underestimated how much hero has left in his stack, because of the multiway preflop action...but i still think you can bet close to 1/2 pot here which is most of hero's stack. I simply don't think that villain is going to be able to lay down a T9 or underset here to $90-$100 with so much money in the pot. He just can't give hero credit for a flush here as the only flush draws that exist now are KQ and JQ and JQ is obviously looking to get this in on the flop being an oesfd and like unbeatable and all. So basically AA is the only hand that hero could have which makes sense and it just isn't very combinatorially likely. That said, a river bluff by hero would also make no sense here.

Small value bet will do(40$-60$), i cannot imagine that he has a flush or a straight there and he's river check shows us clearly that he doesnt want to go broke with AT or two pair here. You have him beat.

Don't you guys think its ridiculously transparent what we're trying to do when we v-bet the river small?

c9h13no3 said:

Don't you guys think its ridiculously transparent what we're trying to do when we v-bet the river small?

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I don't think that matters in this spot. (He still spitecalls with a huge part of his range.)

Yea exactly, it really doesn't matter here because there is just no way in hell that villain is laying down a 2pair/set hand here to a 1/4-1/2 pot bet with so much money in the pot. Not to mention that for hero to bluff shove the river in this spot makes absolutely 0 sense and should always be interpreted as a value shove by villain (if he is thinking straight ofc).

I still think you could bet close to 1/2 pot here and get a crying call tho.

widowmaker89 said:

Should I have folded turn since it seems he was setting up a good push bet size?

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I personally find it hard to call his bet on the turn, but then again, I'm not the most aggressive guy on the block either.

However, having made that call, I find his check on the river scary. With two spades on the flop, I have to consider the possibility that he is chasing a spade flush. I'd guess he's checking the As river hoping that I have some ace-based hand that I'll push with.

I have discussed this hand with other people that have disagreed with play up to the river? I dont really think that raising makes much sense on flop and turn since im committing myself with an overpair with 200BB and am never folding better hands and very rarely getting called by worse. The only benefit is to price draws but I feel pot control>price draws here right? Also this is a fold/check on a blank river to a shove?

Yeah, I don't think betting 1/4 pot is ever really all that optimal. If 3:1 pot odds aren't a good enough price (1/2 pot bet) then they're probably not calling anything.

Joe Slick said:

I'd guess he's checking the As river hoping that I have some ace-based hand that I'll push with.

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This makes no sense at all. Why set up a shove sized bet left, then check the river? He doesn't need to check/raise you to get all in. The reason he would check the river is so that he could possibly fold to a shove from flush draws/whatevers, and he's no longer super happy about his hand this deep with a buy-in left behind.

Also, widow, if you're folding a blank river, then why are we calling the turn? The river's gonna come blank for us 95% of the time, and I don't think a river shove narrows his range all that much more than a turn bet does that sets up a shove.

zachvac said:

So I agree with the hand range assessment, disagree with the river shove. If he's checking to control the pot he's hardly going to call a shove. On the other hand we can value bet less than stack and make him feel he has to pay off what he thinks could be a made flush. Obviously if we value bet we have to call a shove because bluffs make up way more of his range at that point than a C/R on the river with a straight or flush. I'd bet ~$50 on this river.

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Yeah.... villian is just not checking here with the intention of c/r. You do NOT need to shove, you need to extract value from his weaker holding. If you shove, he will fold, if he calls you will be beaten (most likely he will just fold) $50 is a very, nice bet.

If I was playing this hand id be a bit more aggro given the texture... think you played this hand kinda passive, im so shoving him on the turn and im prolly getting my money in good here like 90% of the time against this guy.

I dont understand why im good 90% of the time on the turn if I push. What do you think he has? sure he has a high AF but thats because he never calls, which is a key component of that stat. He has a higher than normal showdown win percentage and a very high fold to flop. Only thing I feel I am "good" against is some combo draw. If I am 100BB deep this is an easy push but pushing an overpair on a non 3bet pot 200BB deep is just spew I think.

I don't see shoving getting worse hands in with us on those earlier streets. I'm unsure if people suggesting that play small stakes maybe, cuz there people will stack off with all kinds of dumb holdings, like AA on this flop, lol.

You definitely have to bet this river. You just took the lead against any two pairs he might've had, and sets, but that seems unlikely unless this guy has an unconcious read going on you and realllly thinks you just slammed your aces there.

If he'd been aggro with the FD he's gotta bet it now that it hit. You've been real passive and it seems too likely that you'd check behind him, so he needs to try and squeeze some more out of you. I'd really think he had something like 9T for 2 pair and is worried about what the heck you're calling with now that the spade came.

I'm thinking he's probably not calling more than the last bet he made, so I'd probably throw $40 or so at it, hoping he calls just to see. I like anything from $40-$50, and it just seems he really doesn't like his hand that much, so I'm skewing the bet amount to the low end of my range.

I really like your play on all streets. You certainly should not go crazy on that flop 200BB deep.
When we hit the set on the river, we should value-shove and expect to get called by a weaker set and sometimes two pair. Every now and then he's gonna have the flush or 78, but he obviously shoves those himself most of the time.

Do you have time to think about EV?

I'm wondering if you are better off to check the river from an EV standpoint. If you don't bet, you don't risk losing the rest of your stack. Hero has 112.80 left in front of him; if he bets 50, are you folding to a shove by villain? I would think you would be pot committed having to call your last 62.80 for a pot with 348.80 in it. Assuming your opponent realizes you would be pot committed to a check-raise shove,then he should not attempt a bluff. So you should a -112.80 value if you bet or shove when you are beat. If you bet or shove, I don't think he would fold a hand that has you beat. So I don't think can add a significant value for that possibility. If my reasoning is right, then your opponent would have have a probability of calling you river bet while beat two times a great as the probability he has you beat to make this a profitable play to bet the river rather than check

FatBasset said:

I'm wondering if you are better off to check the river from an EV standpoint. If you don't bet, you don't risk losing the rest of your stack. Hero has 112.80 left in front of him; if he bets 50, are you folding to a shove by villain? I would think you would be pot committed having to call your last 62.80 for a pot with 348.80 in it. Assuming your opponent realizes you would be pot committed to a check-raise shove,then he should not attempt a bluff. So you should a -112.80 value if you bet or shove when you are beat. If you bet or shove, I don't think he would fold a hand that has you beat. So I don't think can add a significant value for that possibility. If my reasoning is right, then your opponent would have have a probability of calling you river bet while beat two times a great as the probability he has you beat to make this a profitable play to bet the river rather than check

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I don't understand any of what you said, but we don't expect villain to c/r the river with a hand that beats ours, so betting is cool.

Zachvac said:

So I agree with the hand range assessment, disagree with the river shove. If he's checking to control the pot he's hardly going to call a shove. On the other hand we can value bet less than stack and make him feel he has to pay off what he thinks could be a made flush. Obviously if we value bet we have to call a shove because bluffs make up way more of his range at that point than a C/R on the river with a straight or flush. I'd bet ~$50 on this river.

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I seriously don't get why people want to bet anything less than a shove. We have ~100 dollars left in a $186 pot. Are we expecting him to fold T9 if we shove? Or a set?

Put differently, in order for us to bet $50 instead of $100, we have to expect him to call twice as often with weaker hands. With 9 sets and 9 combos of T9, that makes 18. So if we instead bet $50, we need to find 18 more hands that would call $50 but not $100. Which ones are they?

I don't think the stacks are deep enough to find a bet small enough to trigger a bluff raise.

Check

If he missed he isnt going to call.

If he hit or feels like a bluff, you have given him a bigger pot to come over the top with.