Originally Posted by ChuckTs
, Q (3 players)
Hero bets $2.25
, BB raises to $6
, UTG folds, Hero raises to $20
, BB raises to $107.35
, Hero calls $87.35.
Lets see if we can get a handle on villain's wide range.
He didn't raise PF, but was UTG, so could be limping with a monstrosity (but doubtful given his stats). So lets say no JJ+, no AK. AQ is a possibility, but again doubtful. You're likely to see things like this, in order of most likely to least:
1) Combo draws such as QsJs, JsTs, KsJs, Js8s ect. ect. Almost any 2 high spades have some sort of multi-way draw.
2) 99. Obviously a set would take this line.
3) A9 would certainly play this way.
4) AJ may take this line, although, I don't think our villain is this bad.
5) Possibly something weird & unlikely like a limping AQ or another Q9.
Give the fact that we're most likely against a big draw, getting it in on the flop makes the most sense. Only JsTs has a draw that has enough outs against us to be close to a favorite.
Calling and seeing a turn is a bit more risky. At this point it would be hard to get away from a 99, and it would be very hard to get more value out of big draws on the turn. Thus I think by just calling & drawing to a blank turn we end up losing value when a spade comes, still dumping our money off to a set, and many draws that would be 40%ish against us on the flop won't stack off with us on the turn now that they hold a lot less equity in the pot.
I like the way this played out.