re: Poker & 100nl; 99 top set valuetown
Originally Posted by ChuckTs
Flop: ($7) 9[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif], 4[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif], 2[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif] (3 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 folds, CO raises to $10, Hero ...
Pot is now $22, villain has $33.3 left in his stack and hero has him covered...
So the real question is, what is he raising with? His tiny preflop raise, combined with this post-flop min-raise, has me to believe he has the following, in order of most likely to least:
1) A3, A5, unpaired overcards, and possibly 56. These are all "drawing hands", and he's likely to fold them if we push the action too much, since they're very weak draws. But they might be enough to pull a min-raise bluff with on the flop.
2) Non-set pocket pairs (33, 55-88, possibly TT+). If he's holding TT+, it will probably be easy to get him to stack off. However, is this guy bad enough to only min-raise with TT+? Does he think he's trapping us with tiny raises, while he's holding AA? Its possible, but probably not. So this holding isn't going to be strong enough to withstand much action from us either. And he'll get his money in with TT+ by the next street anyways. So I think we should focus on the 88 type holdings here, and try to milk them a bit.
3) A2, A4 - This may give him something to min-raise bluff with, but it won't stand up to much betting.
4) 22, 44 - Money is going in by the river, so these really don't matter much.
5) A9, T9, K9, ect. These hands are unlikely, since we can account for 3 of the 9's.
So in the first 3 (and largest) parts of his range, he's a big dog to us, and I have a hard time believing that even the donkiest of 100$ NL donkeys will be able to stand a lot of action with a hand like A4, A5, or KQ. And against other sets or TT+, I think the money is going in by the river anyways (unless the turn & riv come 3,5 & kill our action).
Thus, since his range is really weak, I say just flat call.
and if he does so I don't doubt he'll bluff the turn if I check to him
Well if you have no doubts, then flat call and check to him .
And I agree, if his range is really as weak as I've laid out, then we'll probably have to get him to commit his stack voluntarily.
The only worry I have with not leading on the turn is that he'll take the free card, and something could come on the turn/river that would kill your action. And, it may be easier to get the rest of his stack in if we do it in portions (10ish on the turn, and the rest on the river). If he checks behind on the turn, then we'd have to get him to commit all 33$ in one street, which may be a bit much for him.