[100NL 6max] Is this spew or do I just run like s***?

B

bw07507

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I have to stack here right??

Villain is 24/18/1.8 with 30% to steal. I have been 24/22/2.5

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $143 (143 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $176.05 (176.1 bb)
BB: $107.50 (107.5 bb)
UTG: $175.55 (175.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A
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Q
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3 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, BB folds, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($23) J
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5
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3
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(2 players)
Hero bets $15, BTN calls $15

Turn: ($53) Q
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $25, Hero raises to $125, BTN calls $49 and is all-in
 
M

mrjohnson911

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question is, what does he smoothcall your 3bet with, what does he call the flop bet with... two pair?? only QJ, but callin pf reraise w QJ? depends on the player... i ve seen the strangest calls lately... or an overpair? KK? AA? and raising cause of the diamond draw out there?maybe some kinda J, that doesnt put u on the Q?.. or he has the draw, trying to get his money in, knowing u wont pay him off if he hits..

i think you can call here, your get great pot odds too... but could still easily have u beat..
 
qwerrk

qwerrk

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The villain could well be riding pocket 3s or 5s and letting you hang yourself.

'scuse my noob-ness, but the 24/22/2.5 construct means %'s seen flop/turn/riv, yes?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Yeah I think you've made the right moves. I mean there's a weird straight draw and a weird flush draw. I'm guessing he hit his set or lucky 2 pair with JQ since it ended up here but it looks fine to me.
 
F

feitr

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I wouldn't worry too much about this. vs bluffy guys i'd probably rather c/c both turn and river coz you get it in vs the widest range that way but it is possible villain might get it in with worse here and if we c/c turn he can check behind river. I don't have a clue what villain is like/your dynamic so there isn't much to go on here. A 1/2 pot float on turn is probably either a monster like a set of Js or whatever wanting to get it in easy on the river or a pure float. JT/KJ etc or something is going to check behind unless you have crazy history. So one part of me doesn't really like the turn shove coz i don't exactly see what worse hand is calling here and pretty much everything you beat will probably bet the river anyways (mostly bluffs on this board really). It is pretty hard finding geniune hands that you have beat here that villain will call a shove since most (like KQ) should't be peeling this flop.

So stacking off is ok but unless villain is pretty spewy in 3B pots (ie. calling really loosly preflop, in which case range is wide enough that you will actually be ahead of a good portion of it) i'd probably rather c/c off your stack. Standard shove vs a fish, just not that sure about a decent player who either has you beat here or a pure float, in which case the shove just gets you in vs the top of villain's range and folds out the bottom.
 
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bw07507

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I wouldn't worry too much about this. vs bluffy guys i'd probably rather c/c both turn and river coz you get it in vs the widest range that way but it is possible villain might get it in with worse here and if we c/c turn he can check behind river. I don't have a clue what villain is like/your dynamic so there isn't much to go on here. A 1/2 pot float on turn is probably either a monster like a set of Js or whatever wanting to get it in easy on the river or a pure float. JT/KJ etc or something is going to check behind unless you have crazy history. So one part of me doesn't really like the turn shove coz i don't exactly see what worse hand is calling here and pretty much everything you beat will probably bet the river anyways (mostly bluffs on this board really). It is pretty hard finding geniune hands that you have beat here that villain will call a shove since most (like KQ) should't be peeling this flop.

So stacking off is ok but unless villain is pretty spewy in 3B pots (ie. calling really loosly preflop, in which case range is wide enough that you will actually be ahead of a good portion of it) i'd probably rather c/c off your stack. Standard shove vs a fish, just not that sure about a decent player who either has you beat here or a pure float, in which case the shove just gets you in vs the top of villain's range and folds out the bottom.

Agreed, I actually thought in my head that the better line would be to ch/c turn and river but for some reason i convinced myself a shove was better even though theres basically no draws whatsoever on this board.
 
zachvac

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Especially 6max, 3-bet pot with TPTK (plus pot bloated from flop) no way to get away imo. If he flatted PF with KK/AA well you got unlucky. 6max players love to float 3-bets with the weirdest shit and then you have implied odds to stack with TPTK. So no not spew imo.
 
blankoblanco

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i play it the same. c-bet is obv standard. on the turn, pairs TT-66 are going to fold if you barrel again, a hand as strong as AJ is likely to fold too, as they'd really only have a bluffcatcher. by checking, not only do you make it more likely that they'll call a river bet, but those hands that would snapfold to a bet will often now bet themselves for protection, convinced that you're giving up. once he bets you have to shove since there's not enough behind to induce a bluff on the river so all you'd really do is give some of his stupid gutshots and pocket pairs a freeroll to beat you

nh, bad result i guess
 
BelgoSuisse

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I would have played it exactly the same way i think.

Yet you'll see the strangest things. Yesterday i 3bet a villain's raise with KK. cbet a raggy xx2 board and get it all in on a 2 turn. Turns out villain had 62o and turned trips. After that, I'm tempted to assign ATC as the standard range for all villains, and here i'll assume villain has J3o that he slowplayed on flop. :eek:
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I think this is just fine. As you said, no draws make any sense, and with the pot odds you're giving him I think he's likely to make a hero call with AJ or KJ here.

Hands that sort-of make sense for him to have that might stack off here:

Beat you: 33, 55, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, QJ
You beat: KQ, KJ, AJ
(We can ignore AQ, since there's no fold equity anyway)

Combos that beat you: 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 6 + 6 + 6= 28.
Combos you beat: 8 + 12 + 12 = 30.

He's somewhat unlikely to bet the river with the hands you beat since your range must be scary, but he WILL bet every hand that beats you. An argument could be made for hoping he'll bluff the river, but the pot is pretty protected by then since he didn't leave enough behind for an effective bluff so that trims the likelyhood of that down a bit.

No, I like a checkraise all-in, and I expect to be looked up by worse hands often enough to make it worthwhile.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Beat you: 33, 55, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, QJ
You beat: KQ, KJ, AJ

In the hands that you beat, you can probably add a few suited diamonds that floated the flop and will now stack with a flush draw because the odds are decent. Certainly Ad5d, Ad3d, probably 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d if these are in his opening range, maybe just any Adxd if villain is a floater. It reinforces the fact you did not spew here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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In the hands that you beat, you can probably add a few suited diamonds that floated the flop and will now stack with a flush draw because the odds are decent. Certainly Ad5d, Ad3d, probably 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d if these are in his opening range, maybe just any Adxd if villain is a floater. It reinforces the fact you did not spew here.
Yeah, maybe sometimes. Certainly not "never." But keep in mind that we have the Ad, and the Qd and Jd are on the board which makes for very few "reasonable" diamond-hands that would call a 3-bet. KdTd, possibly.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Yeah, maybe sometimes. Certainly not "never." But keep in mind that we have the Ad, and the Qd and Jd are on the board which makes for very few "reasonable" diamond-hands that would call a 3-bet. KdTd, possibly.

Didn't see we had Ad. That reduces the amount of diamond draws indeed.
 
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feitr

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FP: I don't really see how you can put KQ into villain's range. If villain is going to peel flop and float us with KQ then he is going to float us with a wide range of pure floats in any case (in which case c/c in the hopes he jams the river would be best). And if villain doesn't have KQ then it substantially reduces the combos of hands that we beat. I also don't think that KJ or AJ fires off 1/2 pot on this turn...i think we can really expect those hands to check behind a good portion of the time. Like what is the point of betting JK? Just no way you can get called by worse on that board and you completely lose control of pot size with a marginal hand. So none of the hands we beat typically play the hand like this. Ofc if villain isn't bluffy, then c/cing off your stack probably doesn't have much advantage if he isn't likely to stick the last $50 in with worse. I still don't see what worse hands you are expecting to call that have to be good at least 1/4 times here, that are consistent with peeling the flop/turn play. I'd be highly suprised to be floated by KQ here (unless villain is a notorious floater, in which case his turn range is very wide) and i'd almost never expect to see KJ/AJ willingly trying to play for stacks here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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... and 33 and 55 don't have set-mining odds preflop, so we can count those out as well. JJ-AA get stricken because people very rarely slowplay those preflop. AQ shouldn't peel the flop.

So there are now 0 combos left in his range, and this is obviously a made-up hand. ;)

But seriously, feitr, it may seem unlikely that he plays a hand a certain way, but you can't discount it totally. KQ wouldn't peel the flop? I've seen it happen, and have had decent-seeming players do it. I've had regular TAGs at $200NL bet this turn with AJ because they want to protect vs. AK and value-bet vs 88-TT. You can argue that some hands are less likely than others, but you can't set their likelyhood to 0%. All hands in his range have to be discounted (KK-AA should probably be weighted by 0.5 or less because people only rarely slowplay those preflop, etc.)

BW: Had you 3-bet him a lot recently before this hand?
 
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feitr

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I am saying that if you figure that KQ has as equal a likelihood as KJ here then villain is peeling flop with almost his entire range in order to float the turn. In which case, shoving is just folding out a huge portion of villain's range. Now if villain is never going to jam river then it would be ok to get it in now, but i wouldn't expect to be called by a hand we beat often at all.

I never intended that you can completely discount those hands as in his range, i just said that it is a very odd line for those hands to take, and IF you include those hands in villain's range you need to include alot of pure floats.

And regardless of whether or not you've seen some TAGs bet here that doesn't mean all that much as i've seen some very TAGgy players shove 77 over my preflop 4B. Doesn't mean i think every 16/14 player is doing that. Would you honestly expect JK/AJ to be betting here and expecting to get value out of TT/99, risking the fact that you might have to play for stacks with 2nd pair on a board where you don't really beat anything?Betting half pot with JK/AJ and calling a shove is absolute spew considering basically all villain has is a bluff catching hand...

Basically, i expect villain to show up with a somewhat polarized range here. KQ (if he peels wide to float...and frankly even KQ might check back one street here), QJ and JJ will probably bet turn (and 55/33 but i highly doubt these are in his flatting range), and pure floats, while i'd expect KJ/AJ and his marginal hands to check behind. With a dynamic i could definitely be convinced that villain might be going for thin value but without any pretty decent history i see no reason to believe JK/AJ would bet this turn. Not saying it would never happen, but without reads this would be my standard read on villain.

Summed up version: I don't mind it that much as played, I still have serious problems trying to figure out worse hands on a draw free board that villain can call with that aren't basically spew as played by villain. And if we include those hands in villain's range then we have to give villain a very wide floating range and it is probably more +EV to c/c turn and c/c river to induce an occasional river shove (if villain is going to bet-call shove with KJ surely he is spewy enough to bluff shove this river at times). I simply do not see any hands we beat calling here that do not lead to villain having absolutely butchered this hand.
 
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