[100NL 6max] River Ch/Call vs Near Pot Bet from Donk

B

bw07507

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I have been playing ~20/18/2.5

Villain here is 58/23/1 over only 34 hands. He folds to only 23% of Cbets over the sample.

With this bet on the river I'm thinking he either 2-paired with the A or he whiffed some straight draw. He's calling flop and turn with all of his open enders and gutshots. Can I call this river with relatively no history here?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $119.40 (119.4 bb)
SB: $111.20 (111.2 bb)
BB: $118 (118 bb)
MP: $98.50 (98.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with T
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J
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MP folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9
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4
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T
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(2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 5
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(2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN calls $12

River: ($41.50) A
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $33, Hero ?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Yes.

With his stats I think another good option is to check the turn to him since in my experience he's likely to have floated random overs/ace high hands that won't call another barrel too often, but will bluff almost always when checked to. Hm, I might even check-raise.

Otherwise as played it's fine and it's a mandatory call. A4/A9 fits perfectly, but so does QJ/J8/78. Sometimes they bet random pairs (that we beat) on the river too for whatever reason.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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yeah, loads of draws that didn't get there bet the scare card on the river. I call and expect to be good about half the time. Also, if villain has A4 or A9, I don't really mind paying 3/4 pot bets to 5 outers that hit on the river after chasing 2 streets with bad odds.
 
kleitches

kleitches

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Is a slow-played set here out of the question given his stats?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Of course not, but even if his range is 44 and one top pair hand it's a clear call. Nevermind the busted draws.
 
B

bw07507

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Yea, this one was a pretty simple call for me. I didn't even really think about the call when I was playing though and that was why it kind of bothered me. So posted it just to make sure. Villain showed up with K9 btw.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Yea, this one was a pretty simple call for me. I didn't even really think about the call when I was playing though and that was why it kind of bothered me. So posted it just to make sure. Villain showed up with K9 btw.

K9 was in his range? Then calling is super +EV here.
 
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